A Precursory Look at Community-wise Voting in Maharashtra and Jharkhand

In Maharashtra, the OBCs, who constitute 38 percent of the state’s population, played a decisive role in the 2024 Assembly election, won by the Mahayuti alliance of the BJP, the Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's NCP. Yet, this isn’t a homogeneous bloc. For instance, the Kunbis, the Vanjaris, and the Dhangars each have distinct concerns and loyalties. The BJP’s ability to make inroads into these communities through strategic representation has paid off, cementing its dominance in key regions.

Despite the agitation over reservations and the dissatisfaction with other unresolved demands, the BJP managed to retain a significant share of Maratha votes through symbolic gestures, influential leadership, and careful engagement.

The Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena alliance, which has traditionally relied on Maratha support, failed to capitalise on their discontent, along with their inability to offer a cohesive alternative. The strategic fragmentation of traditional vote banks further added to the Maha Vikas Aghadi's challenges, leaving them with fewer reliable constituencies.

While the Mahars remain a loyal base for Ambedkarite and opposition politics, the BJP’s targeted outreach ensured meaningful traction among non-Mahar Dalit groups. In regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada, known for agrarian distress and rural vulnerabilities, the MVA’s reliance on anti-incumbency sentiment failed to gain traction. Even in Western Maharashtra, historically dominated by the NCP, the Mahayuti breached traditional bastions, underscoring the opposition’s waning influence.

The Urban-Rural Divide: Different Stories, Same Discontent

Maharashtra’s urban and rural voters often inhabit vastly different realities, and this election has brought those contrasts into sharp focus. In urban areas like Pune, Mumbai, and Nagpur, issues such as infrastructure, housing, and inflation dominated conversations. The BJP, with its emphasis on development and big-ticket projects, has managed to retain its stronghold in these regions.

Voters in cities largely rallied behind the promise of continued growth, despite occasional dissatisfaction over stalled projects and uneven economic benefits. The Mahayuti’s appeal to middle-class aspirations and its targeted engagement with youth helped solidify its urban base, leaving little room for the opposition to make inroads. 

In rural Maharashtra, the narrative was shaped by agrarian challenges and economic distress. Farmers, faced with an opposition alliance that failed to present a unified or credible alternative, appeared to have placed their trust in the Mahayuti’s promises of infrastructure and financial security. The Congress-NCP alliance, which had counted on rural discontent to regain ground, was unable to convert grievances into votes, as past governance records undercut their claims of reform. 

Women Voters and Welfare Schemes: A ₹1,500 Fix or Political Band-Aid? 

Women voters are emerging as a decisive force in Maharashtra’s elections, and political parties are tailoring their strategies to appeal to this growing demographic. Welfare schemes like the Ladli Behen Scheme, offering ₹1,500 monthly aid to women aged 21–65, have been a focal point of outreach. On the surface, these schemes promise financial independence, especially for women in rural areas burdened by rising costs and limited opportunities. However, a closer look reveals a more complex story. 

According to the Access (In)Equality Index (AEI) by CNES and OP Jindal Global University, the scheme scores high on financial inclusion, providing immediate cash relief to women and families in need. Yet, its broader impact remains limited. Maharashtra still struggles with systemic challenges—only 22.4% of households have health insurance, and dropout rates among rural girls remain alarmingly high. While schemes like Ladli Behen alleviate short-term financial distress, they fail to tackle the underlying issues of education, healthcare, and sustainable employment opportunities that could empower women in the long term.

At the core of Jharkhand’s electoral dynamics lies its tribal population, which isn’t just another voting bloc—it’s the lifeblood of the state’s politics. With tribals making up 26.21% of the population and holding sway over 28 reserved assembly seats, they wield unparalleled influence. The JMM, under Hemant Soren’s leadership, has long been synonymous with tribal identity and empowerment. This connection is no accident—it’s the product of decades of grassroots engagement, cultural preservation, and policies that resonate deeply with the tribal community. 

The 2019 elections underscored the JMM’s dominance in this arena, with the party winning 19 tribal seats and its ally Congress securing six, while the BJP managed a paltry two. This year, the BJP has pulled out all the stops to try and break this stranglehold. From poaching tribal leaders like Champai Soren to pushing Hindu-centric narratives aimed at polarizing the electorate, the BJP’s strategy has been aggressive but ultimately ineffective.

The BJP’s tactics, particularly in tribal-dominated regions like Kolhan and Santhal Parganas, often come across as tone-deaf. While the party tries to pit tribal identity against perceived external threats, it overlooks the deep-rooted loyalty tribal voters feel toward the JMM. Hemant Soren’s leadership continues to symbolize the safeguarding of tribal autonomy and culture, a legacy the BJP has yet to match in substance or trust. 

 Women Voters: INDIA Bloc’s Winning Formula 

Women voters are playing an unprecedented role in this election, with their numbers surpassing men in 32 constituencies. Both the JMM and BJP recognize the significance of this demographic, but the INDIA bloc has clearly struck a more resonant chord. 

The JMM’s “Maiyan Samman Scheme,” which provides ₹1,000 monthly to women aged 18-60, has proven to be a game-changer in rural Jharkhand, where financial relief can have a transformative impact. But beyond the policy, the JMM has found an unexpected electoral weapon in Kalpana Soren. Her energetic rallies, filled with enthusiastic female supporters, have not only added a personal touch to the campaign but also humanized the JMM’s outreach to women. 

Kalpana’s speeches blend empowerment with relatable narratives of cultural pride and economic support, creating a powerful emotional connection with women voters. Her presence has helped frame the JMM as a party that doesn’t just make promises but listens, understands, and delivers.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s “Gogo Didi” programs and other self-help group initiatives, while thoughtful, lack the authenticity and grassroots connection of the JMM’s campaign. For rural women, who make up the bulk of this voter base, the BJP’s efforts often come across as policy on paper, whereas the JMM’s initiatives feel tangible and rooted in their lived realities. 

(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. Ankur Singh is a Research Assistant with the Centre for New Economics Studies, OP Jindal Global University and a team member of its InfoSphere initiative. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)