Drone and Rocket Attacks Add Another Dimension to the Ethnic Conflict in Manipur

The acquisition of drones enables militants to carry out attacks without risking their own lives.

The recent drone attacks, that too on two consecutive days (1 and 2 September), followed by rocket attacks (on 6 September) by one of the parties to the ethnic conflict going on in Manipur for the last 17 months have added a new dimension to the problem.

The attacks resulted in the death of two civilians and injuries to nine others in the Meitei-dominated districts of Imphal West and Bishnupur. The Manipur Police claims that the drones were used by the Kukis. Kuki organisations, however, have vehemently denied involvement in the attacks.

These drones could have reached the perpetrators from a variety of sources.

First, they could have come from across the border from Myanmar where these are said to have been used against the Military Junta. The drones could also have been acquired from the open market and modified to carry grenades and explosives which are available in plenty (given the various incidents of looting from the Manipur Police and the IRBs).

That the drones could reach the hands of troublemakers is also a stark failure on the part of intelligence agencies. The lack of information, and therefore, the non-availability of actionable intelligence emanates from the rigid separation of the two ethnic communities that has been imposed because of the widespread violence we have witnessed in the last 17 months. 

The acquisition of drones enables them to carry out attacks without risking their own life and cause heavy causalities far from them by the use of bombs and explosives.

Using drones, the attackers can pick their target locations more precisely to drop their payload of explosives. Thus, every location in Manipur is a potential target and this will compel the government to deploy more troops for static security by diverting them from proactive operations.

This also adds to a sense of insecurity amongst common people, resulting in a panic “blackout” reaction at night, as reported in some quarters. The fact that we do not have effective technology to counter the drone threat makes the situation extremely worrisome.

The drone attacks have also exposed the hollowness of the claims of the Manipur government about having controlled the violence and restored a semblance of normalcy. The separation of the two communities by the creation of buffer zones and virtual borders to this extent is a phenomenon that perhaps was not witnessed even during Partition.

Both communities have representatives, armed with illegal weapons looted from the Manipur Police and IRBs, who have been deployed at checkpoints to verify the ethnicity of even the security forces' personnel before letting them cross the barriers. This cannot, even by a stretch of the imagination, be called peace and normalcy. 

The ethnic groups appear to have more faith in the defence committees formed by themselves to protect their communities instead of relying on the Manipur Police and the security forces. The law and order situation has completely broken down. This must be addressed urgently even at this belated stage.

Failing to do so may lead to, in a worst-case scenario, a full-blown separatist insurgency.

The fact that the situation is beyond the control of the Manipur government is clear from day one. The state police is completely divided on ethnic lines and is neither capable nor willing to act proactively. They are being accused of being partial to the Meitei community. In view of the above circumstances, the absolute inaction of the central government is beyond comprehension.

The first step towards restoring normalcy in the state is to control violence and create an environment of mutual trust between the two communities. This can be achieved by imposing President’s Rule, given that the Biren Singh government has failed miserably. Security forces must carry out searches to recover the looted arms that are being used to perpetrate violence.

These efforts must be followed up by initiating dialogue between the two communities by using the good offices of Naga leaders who have maintained a neutral stance. The services of village heads commonly known as “Gaon Budhas” are widely respected in the tribal communities of the East.

Manipur is one of the poorest states in the country and urgent action is required to enhance avenues of employment. It is also important to create alternative means of income for the hill tribes if they have to be weaned away from the opium cultivation that they are accused of taking part in.

Another important aspect is to take effective steps to guard the border with Myanmar. The border guarding methodology adopted by the Assam Rifles (AR) is not conducive to effective control, maybe because the number of AR units being allotted for border control are not enough. Another reason is the remoteness of the border and the undeveloped terrain, leading to a lack of infrastructure to establish border outposts for 24-hour surveillance.

The drone attacks have exposed the weakness of security measures in Manipur. These attacks are the first of their kind anywhere in the state with wider implications not only for Manipur but also for the internal security scenario of the entire country.

The ability of these drones to be operated remotely poses serious threats and should awaken policy planners to regulate their free availability. This must also give impetus to the efforts of finding better anti-drone technology because the effectiveness of the use of Light Machine Guns (LMG) in Anti-Aircraft Roles has limitations with respect to range and visibility.

(Sanjiv Krishan Sood (Retd) has served as the Additional Director General of the BSF and was also with the SPG. He tweets @sood_2. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)