American Killing of Mullah Mansoor May Not Change Afghan Situation

US assassination of Taliban chief Mansour not likely to end Ashraf Ghani’s woes in Afghanistan, writes Vivek Katju.

The US killed the Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansoor in a drone strike on 21 May in Balochistan, close to the Durand Line separating Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan had assisted Mansoor in combating rivals after the announcement of the death of Mullah Omar in June 2015. He was thus, Pakistan’s protégé, though, like all Afghans, not entirely in its control. How will Mansoor’s elimination impact the evolution of the Afghan situation and promote US objectives?

There are deep fissures in Afghanistan’s National Unity Government. President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah are at odds on many national issues and the latter is losing ground. If Abdullah’s patience ends, the entire political edifice will collapse. That will severely impact the security situation which is fragile. In turn, a security collapse would be a blow to political stability.

Ghani’s Outreach to Pakistan

Taliban influence is substantial by now in almost all parts of the country, especially in the south and the east. Violent Taliban terrorist attacks such as the one in Kabul last month that resulted in over 60 deaths are expected through 2016.

Ghani’s basic approach to end the Taliban violence is to engage it in peace talks. The US and its NATO allies also favour this approach. Mansoor and other factional leaders such as Mullah Rasoul and Mullah Zakir were unwilling to come to the negotiating table. One reason is the inability of the Afghan security forces to effectively combat and defeat them. At best they can maintain a holding operation, denying the Taliban enduring control over any part of Afghan territory.

Ghani has gone out of his way to court the Pakistan army to persuade it to pressure the Afghan Taliban to seriously engage the Afghan government. However, the generals have remained unmoved though they have gone through the motions of persuading the Taliban. A quadrilateral process involving Pakistan, Afghanistan, the US and China to pressure Pakistan to lean on the Taliban has also gone nowhere.

Message from the Mansoor Attack

The Mansoor attack is thus an action that seeks to serve multiple purposes. It is a clear signal to the Afghan Taliban leaders that they are no longer safe in Pakistan and hence should take to the path of peace. It is also a deliberate signal to the Pakistani generals that the US will be willing to take action within Pakistan despite the embarrassment it may cause to them. Hence, they should ensure that the Taliban comes to the negotiating table.

To the Afghan leadership the US wishes to indicate that it is capable of taking ruthless action in an attempt to prevent a “hot” summer of Taliban violence. The maintenance of the security situation is a primary American objective in a presidential election year and clearly the hope is that Mansoor’s death will erode Taliban capabilities.

Death of Taliban Chief

• Mullah Mansoor appointed as Taliban chief in July 2015 after the death of group’s founder Mullah Omar.
  
• Once Mansoor took charge, Afghanistan witnessed some of the worst terror strikes, including takeover of Kunduz.
  
• Even as Ashraf Ghani struggles with insurgents, drone strike by US, a signal to Pakistan to take action against terrorists.
  
• Taliban is likely to witness a succession battle after Mansoor’s death.
  

Finding Mansoor’s Successor

The question is if the Mansoor killing will further or fulfil these objectives. As in the past the key lies with Pakistan. If the generals hold their nerve, as they have done on the Afghan issue through the years, they will be able to take Mansoor’s elimination in their stride and find a suitable successor who will be aligned to them. This is even if there is turmoil in the Taliban ranks in the aftermath of the killing. The claim for leadership may be contested between Mullah Omar’s family and Sirajuddin Haqqani who was Mansoor’s number two. Another one who will throw his hat in the ring is Mullah Rasool.

The fact is that the generals know that despite this major signal the US cannot ignore Pakistan as it retains the capacity to severely damage US interests in Afghanistan. It is for this reason that over the past 15 years the US had to suffer the death of more than 2,000 soldiers at the hand of the Taliban who were being completely sustained by the Pakistan army.

At best Mansoor’s killing may diminish Taliban military capabilities for a while on account of its temporary splintering but that can be built with Pakistani support once a successor to Mansoor is in place.

It is also uncertain if any major Taliban leader will be scared into rushing to open negotiations with the Afghan government. They are a stoic lot but run the risk of losing support in Taliban ranks should they do so.

US Listens to Ghani’s Appeal

For Ghani, the US action will give a morale boost largely as it shows that if he is getting angry with unresponsive Pakistan conduct the US too is showing impatience and using force. It is unlikely though if any changes will occur on the ground.

All things considered the Mansoor killing is unlikely to make a fundamental difference to the Afghan situation.

(The writer is a former Secretary [West], Ministry of External Affairs.)

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