Could Gajendra Singh’s Death put Land Bill in Cold Storage?

The government is unlikely to proceed with the Land Bill this session of Parliament. Here’s why.

A farmer dies in front of live TV cameras in the midst of a political rally.

A Chief Minister makes a faux pas, ignoring the death, goes on with his rally speech.

Political parties trade charges over the farmer’s death. Aam Admi Party (AAP) is blamed for encouraging a spectacle. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seen as insensitive to farmer needs, pushing a “corporate” agenda via its Land Bill.

The scenario has all the ingredients of a Bollywood political potboiler. But alas, this was no Peepli Live. This was reality captured on live TV. When you have such high drama unfolding in front of your eyes, it’s bound to affect our political class.

It seems the fate of the ordinance tabled in the Lok Sabha on the Land Bill has also been sealed because of this incident. Many senior leaders this author spoke to, made it clear. A human life lost in front of the media. Whatever be the reality, at this stage, to take up land acquisition bill will be committing political hara-kiri. At least two senior cabinet ministers have already informed the Prime Minister of their views on this subject.

Narendra Modi, who so far hasn’t displayed one single defensive bone in his system, has been on the back foot post the death of Gajendra Singh. Irrespective of the fact that his family has clarified he had sufficient land and other sources of income, that he was not a poor suicidal soul, the PM was candid enough to conclude that perhaps mistakes have been made by successive governments including his, when it comes to handling farmers issues.

Here are reasons as to why the government is unlikely to proceed with the land bill this session of parliament.

1. The Political Backlash

The death of Gajendra has united the opposition against the government over the Land Bill. For Rahul Gandhi, it has been like some kind of a drug which has got him his mojo back. In Parliament with his ‘suited-booted’ remark or his train trip to the troubled grain mandis of Sirhind and Khanna in Punjab, Rahul is positioning himself as a farmers’ champion, even as he describes Modi as the corporates’ champion. Pushing the Land Bill may only cement that imagery.

2. The Bihar Factor

Many top BJP Ministers are wary of an encore of Delhi in Bihar. The BJP Goliath got a pasting in Delhi by a David-like team Kejriwal, while in Bihar a newly united Janta Parivar presents an even more formidable opposition. To be going into elections in a primarily rural state, with jibes of being a “suit boot ki sarkaar” trailing you, isn’t really the best strategy.

3. The RSS Factor

Senior RSS functionaries this author spoke to state bluntly that team Modi has mishandled the entire debate on Land Acquisition. It’s unlikely whether Modi-Amit Shah duo would want to aggravate things at this stage.

4. The 1st Year Legacy

The government is completing its first year. Team Modi doesn’t want the government to be identified only with the legislation related to land acquisition. There are many more initiatives, which have been taken by the PM, which they would like to highlight as Modi completes 365 days in power. The heady days of that sweeping victory seeming almost like a distant memory.

5. The India Shining Worry Again

In 2014, the BJP won big because rural and urban areas voted for the party in equal numbers. If the rural voter has a perception that he is ‘in crisis’, then for Modi to project merely an ‘India Shining’ view of India, could underline a sense of disconnect with the other India that has been equally responsible for bringing for bringing the BJP to power. Modi’s advisors are wary of a repeat of the backlash to the party’s India Shining campaign of 2004.

Moral of the story — The right to fair compensation and transparency, in land acquisition, rehabilitation and resettlement, while it may be the way ahead for the Indian economy in the long run, conventional political wisdom could trump that in the immediate future.