How the tide has turned for the young North Korean strongman Kim Jong-un, compared to early 2018, when he was an international pariah and shunned by world leaders.
Head of an impoverished and tiny nation, he has since held two summits with the American President, the world’s most powerful person. He has met President Xi Jinping (XJP) of China five times, South Korean President Moon Jae-in thrice and President Vladimir Putin once. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan has been trying unsuccessfully for some facetime with him.
How Did Kim Jong-Un Change the Tide in His Favour?
What is so special about Kim Jong-un (KJU)? How could he pull off what his grandfather and father, also authoritarian rulers of North Korea, could not? What has North Korea or Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), as it is officially known, done?
The sad truth is that DPRK has acquired the capability to wreak serious damage and destruction in east-Asia and even threaten the US mainland.
It has become a de facto nuclear power by successfully conducting its first thermo-nuclear test in September 2017 and test-firing an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), with a range of 13,000 km, on 29 November 2017.
In the process, KJU jolted the strategic community, grabbed the attention of Washington and embarrassed China, its sole ally and economic lifeline.
In fact, Kim rained on XJP’s parade by testing a ballistic missile in April 2017, when the Chinese President was in the US, for his crucial introductory meeting with President Trump. Reportedly, Xi was furious and did not hesitate in joining hands with the US, during the ensuing months, in imposing crippling sanctions on DPRK.
Max Baucus, the US Ambassador to Beijing until Jan 2017, recalls President Xi privately expressing ‘disgust’ at Kim’s reckless pursuit of nukes and missiles.
China-Kim Jong-un Relations: A Rocky Start
KJU who came to office in 2011 at the age of 28, and the Chinese leadership started off on the wrong foot. Willy-nilly an impression gained ground that Beijing preferred two other members of the Kim family – Jang Song-thaek and Kim Jong-nam – over Kim Jong-un. However, KJU had other ideas. He went about ruthlessly consolidating his grip over power. Jang, KJU’s uncle and erstwhile Regent of sorts, was executed in 2013, for being soft on a ‘large country’. The other Kim, KJU’s half-brother too was assassinated in 2017. Beijing was naturally riled up but had to swallow its pride for geostrategic reasons.
Both nations share a 1,420 kms mostly riverine border along the Yalu and Tumen rivers. China considers DPRK as a buffer between the American forces stationed in South Korea. It is loath to see North Korea implode or slip into the American camp. China wants a regime that it can manage – neither too strong nor too weak – which is beholden to but not a liability for it. However, it is proving to be a Herculean task for China to strike the right balance. And then there is the 1961 mutual defence pact (Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance) which endures till date.
Since the execution of Jang in 2013, China had kept DPRK afloat but limited high-level engagement with it. KJU was never invited to Beijing contrary to the decades-old practice. But the Chinese underestimated Kim who upstaged everyone by suing for peace and dialogue with South Korea on 1 January 2018. Beijing was taken aback when – courtesy President Moon’s good offices – Trump agreed to meet KJU unconditionally for the first ever US-DPRK summit. Hitherto China used to be the central player in any discussion pertaining to North Korea.
How China Was Caught Off-Guard By North Korea’s Diplomacy
Displaying uncanny diplomatic ingenuity, Kim next sought an audience with President Xi. Relieved and appreciative, Beijing sprung to extend a formal invitation to him and his spouse. Xi and Kim met for the first time on 26 March 2018, before the latter’s summits with President Moon in April and President Trump in June. Both sides gained bragging rights.
China dealt itself back into the great game though not a spot on the negotiating table. Kim’s position was strengthened with Beijing covering his back. In the months to follow, the two leaders met three more times, before or after Kim’s talks with the US or South Korea.
That is the background in which the Chinese President paid a state visit to DPRK, on 20-21 June 2019. It is not coincidental that he is scheduled to hold an extended meeting with Donald Trump, on the margins of the G20 summit at Osaka on 28-29 June.
While they would primarily focus on ironing out serious bilateral differences, yet North Korea too would not be far from their minds. The Chinese President would like to don the robes of an honest broker and hope to score some brownie points with his counterpart. As per The New York Times, “By inviting Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un is giving Xi a chance to play and flaunt a mediator’s role on the Korean Peninsula…In return, North Korea is expecting food aid from China.”
In according a resounding welcome to the modern-day Chinese emperor, KJU also wanted to put the bilateral relations back on track and secure Chinese endorsement for his stance on denuclearisation talks with the US. The aborted Hanoi summit with Trump last February has been a huge setback for KJU. A demigod for his people, failure is not an option for him. Besides, even though the sting in the US/UN economic sanctions has been blunted, they are adversely impacting the highly fragile North Korean economy.
China accounts for 90% of North Korean trade and a bulk of its meagre foreign currency earnings. Beijing’s data shows its imports from North Korea plunged by 88% and exports to the North dipped by 33% in 2018.
How China’s Role was Restored in the Korean Peninsula
Penning a rare op-ed piece, on the eve of his visit, in North Korea's official newspaper Rodong Sinmun, President Xi observed – ‘No matter how the wind and clouds of the international situation change, our two parties and two peoples inherit and carry forward the traditional friendship between China and the DPRK’. He added that Beijing was willing to make a joint plan with Pyongyang to achieve "permanent stability" in the East Asian region.
In Pyongyang, ‘Xi spoke highly of the DPRK's efforts to safeguard peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and promote its denuclearisation… stressing that the Korean Peninsula issue was highly sensitive and complex, Xi said a strategic and long-term perspective was needed …China was willing to provide assistance within its capacity to DPRK to address its legitimate security and development concerns, strengthen coordination and cooperation with DPRK …and play a positive and constructive role in achieving denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula,’ reported Chinese Xinhua.
‘Kim said that over the past year, DPRK had taken many active measures to avoid tensions and control the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but had not received positive responses from the party concerned … DPRK was willing to stay patient, and hopes that the relevant party will work with DPRK to seek solutions that accommodate each other's legitimate concerns and push for results from the dialogue process,’ the Xinhua report further added.
Most of the objectives of the summit were duly achieved.
China is back into reckoning as an indispensable actor in the peace process in the Korean Peninsula. Kim has secured a much-needed shot in the arm with President Xi endorsing his approach.
China, DPRK and South Korea appear to be on the same page in seeking a step-by-step denuclearisation and reciprocal sanctions relief, to build mutual trust. The US has been demanding complete and verifiable denuclearisation by the North, upfront, which is a non-starter. The ball has thus been tossed back in Trump’s court.
(The writer is a former High Commissioner to Canada, Ambassador to South Korea and Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached at@AmbVPrakash. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)