An unprecedented political tsunami swept away the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress, catapulting the N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP)-Jana Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance to power in Andhra Pradesh.
Political pundits and the common public alike are perplexed over what led to this stellar performance by the Telugu Desam Party-led combine, that too, despite Jagan's record number of welfare schemes.
Not surprisingly, in his response to the verdict on 4 June, Jagan expressed his skepticism over the electoral mandate while acknowledging that he had no evidence to back his suspicion.
About 40 percent vote share brought the Congress to power in the neighbouring state of Telangana in the 2023 Assembly elections. Despite getting a similar vote share, the YSRCP faced defeat in Andhra Pradesh.
This statistical paradox is a result of the state's political context – and the vote percentages must be understood through this. Unlike in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh saw an unprecedented polarisation between the two warring camps. As a result, a significant vote share could also not prevent the inundation of the YSRCP.
Caustic Electoral Arithmetic
The electoral alliance between the TDP and the Jana Sena was the real game changer. It energised the TDP cadre and infused confidence in Jagan's critics.
This resulted in the shift in the swing vote, as the formidable alliance arithmetic punctured the aura of invincibility built around Jagan owing to his historic win in 2019 and limitless welfarism let loose by his regime despite the state's financial woes.
The coming together of the TDP and Jana Sena was not mere is a political coalition. It heralded an unnatural social coalition, unheard of in several decades, between the two dominant castes, Kammas and Kapus. This caste arithmetic traumatically changed the political landscape in the coastal region of the state that shaped the socio-political idiom.
Pawan Kalyan, the Man of the Match
The political arithmetic is accompanied by a strong political chemistry built through a sustained narrative building. The Jana Sena chief and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan was the chief architect of this new political realignment that proved caustic for the YSRCP.
Kalyan was the first to call for an effort to prevent the split in anti-Jagan vote. This created a strong political narrative, giving legitimacy to the TDP-Jana Sena pact, though the two parties were earlier at loggerheads.
This also justified the TDP returning to the NDA fold despite personal and political animosity between the two parties and their leaders. In fact, Kalyan was instrumental in bringing the BJP and TDP together. The saffron brigade was initially unwilling to embrace the TDP.
Kalyan announced his decision to ally with TDP even as he remained in NDA. The time and place of this announcement also mattered. He made this announcement right in front of Rajahmundry Central Jail, where Chandrababu Naidu was imprisoned in the skill development scam.
This boosted the morale of the TDP rank and file who were disillusioned after the arrest of the party supremo. Thus, Kalyan earned place in the hearts of TDP supporters, facilitating a near-perfect vote transfer.
The actor could also successfully convince cadres and voters of both TDP and the Jana Sena that it was a win-win partnership. The TDP, by then, did not muster enough confidence to defeat Jagan on its own as he appeared rather invincible then.
The Jana Sena supporters and voters also got convinced that an alliance with the TDP was essential to ensure a strong presence of the party in the Assembly. Thus, Kalyan deserves to be the Man of the Match, as it was his strategy that brought about the winning electoral arithmetic and political chemistry.
The TDP-Jana Sena, moreover, were clever enough to rope in the BJP though the latter has negligible vote share in the state. An alliance with BJP helped in two ways.
Several officers, including the Director General of Police, were replaced by the Election Commission on the eve of the elections. The support of the ruling dispensation at the Centre was indispensable for electoral funding and poll management at a time when the TDP and Jana Sena had to brave the strong-arm tactics of the Jagan regime.
Limits of Welfarism
Meanwhile, Jagan was solely pinning his hopes on his government's direct benefit transfer schemes. The unbridled welfarism is unsustainable economics. But Jagan's abysmal performance at the hustings proved the point that it could even be politically unsustainable.
The limitless welfarism of the Jagan government turned the state finances precarious and the mounting debt became a political weapon for his rivals.
The huge burden of these welfare schemes fiscally incapacitated the government, resulting in the undermining of development expenditure. Thus, a widespread discontent was especially palpable among the upper caste, upper class, urban and young voters, which seems to have percolated to the rural areas which Jagan considered as his impregnable stronghold.
The YSRCP was still hoping for a comeback. However, his lopsided political strategy seems to have boomeranged due to joblessness and lack of improvement in economic opportunities, resulting in the alienation of vast sections of the electorate.
Meanwhile, a change in the political sociology of welfarism has also contributed to Jagan's failure to retain power. Earlier, voters used to express a sense of gratitude towards the ruling politicians for granting them welfare schemes. Now, a sense of inevitability is discernable among the voters that whichever party is in power, welfare schemes are here to stay.
On the top of that, while Jagan promised only incremental addition to his already existing schemes, Naidu promised a rather revised and enlarged version of the welfare agenda, calling it 'Super Six'. In a frantic bid to win the elections, Naidu moved away from his brand of politics and embraced an ambitious welfare agenda.
Besides, the TDP could successfully instill an unprecedented fear among the landowners that Jagan, if re-elected, would take away their lands citing the Land Titling Act enacted by the YSRCP government. In fact, this law was suggested by Niti Ayog and supported by the TDP in the state legislature.
But the YSRCP failed to put up a credible defense. The fear aversion impacts more than the lure for potential gains.
Party-People Disconnect
The direct benefit transfer schemes caused an eminent disconnect between the grassroots political organisation of the ruling party and the electorate, though such an approach prevented the leakage. The inaccessibility of the chief minister to the party leaders has further aggravated the situation. Thus, Jagan, through his own deeds, significantly weakened the party apparatus.
The flawed and failed idea of three capitals abandoning Amaravati, the arrest and the ill-treatment meted out to Naidu, the suppression of dissent, the alleged corruption of YSRCP leaders, the strong anti-incumbency faced by the party legislators, and the revolt of YS Sharmila, his own sister, have all added fuel to the fire.
Thus, the edifice of social engineering which Jagan assiduously built for his political consolidation crumbled like a pack of cards.
(Prof K Nageshwar is a senior political analyst, faculty member of Osmania University, and a former MLC. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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