The Opposition's demand for a nationwide caste census found an unexpected supporter in the ruling NDA: Union minister and LJP chief Chirag Paswan. Breaking ranks with the BJP and other NDA partners, Paswan said that his party had always favoured a caste headcount and wanted it to happen soon.
His decision to back what has become Rahul Gandhi’s chief political calling card is significant and probably has something to do with the speed with which the contentious issue of a caste census is gaining traction.
The latest Mood of the Nation survey by C-Voter and India Today shows a whopping jump in support for a caste census in the six months between February and August this year, from 59 percent to 74 percent. A Dalit leader like Paswan cannot afford to ignore these figures.
Although the caste census was part of the INDIA bloc’s narrative during the recent Lok Sabha polls and figured prominently in the Congress party’s manifesto, it has gained momentum ever since Rahul stood up as the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament during the recent Budget session and thundered, "Wait and watch. We (the Opposition) will make sure that the bill (for a caste census) is passed here."
Having thrown down the gauntlet so aggressively, Rahul may well have catalysed a return to caste politics as a counter to the BJP’s Hindutva. The Mandal-Kamandal wheel looks poised to come full circle as the idea of a caste census fires the imagination of marginalised groups and communities hit in the past ten years by demonetisation, the pandemic, and policies like increasing indirect taxes, government job cutbacks, Agniveer, etc, for which labharthi schemes are poor compensation.
Opposition Used to Be Clueless on How to Counter Modi
For over three decades now, caste and majoritarian Hindu politics have shaped political battle lines, particularly in north India. Late Prime Minister VP Singh’s controversial decision to implement the findings of the Mandal Commission report on quotas for Other Backward Classes gave caste the initial edge. However, because its benefits were patchy and not equitably distributed, the Mandal parties failed to consolidate and eventually fragmented.
The BJP’s successful mobilisation of Hindus cutting across castes (with help from the RSS and its affiliates) for the construction of a Ram Temple in Ayodhya soon galvanised supporters with Hindutva as the pivot of Indian politics.
In Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the saffron camp found a perfect answer to the Mandal-Kamandal conundrum. As an OBC with unimpeachable Hindu nationalist credentials, he seamlessly integrated two competing forces into a unified whole.
Ever since Modi’s rise, the Opposition, particularly the Congress party, has been at a loss to find a counter to his brand of politics. Rahul experimented with traditional tools within his sphere of comprehension: firing corruption allegations against Modi for the Rafale deal, adopting a soft Hindutva line with successive temple runs, trying to join the Ambani-Adani dots with Modi, and so on.
Everything failed till he stepped out of the Congress' comfort zone with a Bharat Jodo Yatra that prompted him to embrace caste politics with both arms. Congress veterans are surprised. Although the party has had its share of state leaders who dabbled in caste politics like the late Gujarat Chief Minister Madhav Singh Solanki and late Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and Union Minister Arjun Singh, the Nehru-Gandhi family has always shied away from it.
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The Return of Caste Politics
Rahul’s decision to go full throttle with a demand for a caste census would seem to go against the grain. However, the fact that he has succeeded in putting the Modi government and the BJP on the back foot is the elixir he needs to continue on this path.
The return of caste politics comes at an interesting juncture, which probably explains why a caste census is potentially an attractive proposition for those at the bottom half of the socio-economic pyramid and could emerge as an effective tool for mass mobilisation by the Opposition.
Firstly, the inauguration of the Ram Temple in January this year closed the Kamandal circle and buried the issue. Since the temple was the cutting edge of the BJP’s Hindutva politics, populist majoritarian nationalism is losing steam. This is evident from the BJP’s dismal Lok Sabha performance in Uttar Pradesh, the epicentre of the Ram Mandir movement.
Although the BJP-RSS and their supporters may try to whip up other emotive majoritarian issues like banning cow slaughter, reclaiming the mosques in Mathura and Varanasi, love jihad, etc, none have caught the public imagination (as yet) the way the Ram Mandir did.
Secondly, economic distress is biting hard. Unemployment, inflation and an agrarian crisis are crippling the aspirations of those at the bottom of the ladder. In other words, the biggest economic sufferers today are Dalits, tribals and OBCs, apart from, of course, the minorities.
With government jobs shrinking and public sector units being privatised, the demand for more equity in the distribution of quotas in employment and educational institutions is growing. However, equitable distribution needs data for which a caste census is essential.
Caste Census Could Unravel the Hindutva Project
French scholar on Indian politics Christophe Jaffrelot revealed crucial data in a recent article. He points out that in central government services, the number of SCs and OBCs has dropped from 5.69 lakhs in 2018-19 to 3.18 lakhs in 2022-23. Little wonder then that the frustration is growing.
It remains to be seen whether the BJP can resist the demand for a caste census. The RSS, as well as the BJP, have been opposed to caste-based reservations as part of its ideology. However, political compulsions and the need for numbers in a democracy have forced them to modify their position.
But even as they claim to support the idea of reservations in the interest of social justice, they continue to waffle on the issue of conducting a caste survey. A census to enumerate castes would most likely unravel the saffron project to unify the Hindu community and build a Hindu Rashtra.
Rahul is hoping to widen this fault line in the coming months and demolish Hindutva as a pillar of Indian politics. Time will tell whether he will succeed or go down in history as a modern-day VP Singh who failed to earn political capital from his path-breaking decision to implement the Mandal Commission report.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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