BJP Will Find it Tough to Dislodge Naveen Patnaik’s BJD in Odisha

Inner-party squabbling will come in the BJP’s way to challenge Naveen Patnaik in Odisha, writes Manoranjan Mohanty.

‘Jahan hamaara charan padaa nahi, wahan kya ho payega?” Where we have not set our foot, what can happen there?” Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted recently at the Vikas Utsav rally in Balasore in north Odisha. This was his third visit to Odisha in the past four months. He had previously visited Paradip port and Bargarh in western Odisha.

The Balasore rally was about giving an account of his two years’ achievements, calling upon people to opt for the BJP if they wanted prosperity. Balasore had a substantial support base for the BJP where the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) had strengthened its hold recently.

The BJP had planned seven such rallies in different parts of the state in the next few days to convey the Modi regime’s achievements. Incidentally, the one in Rourkela, scheduled for June 6, got embroiled in a controversy as the local BJP MLA and business magnet Dilip Ray boycotted it. His grouse was that despite his efforts, the BJP-ruled Centre had not upgraded the status of a hospital in Rourkela.

Fluid Situation

In fact, the Rourkela rally episode exemplifies the BJP’s fluidity in Odisha. Competing factional leaders, absence of a distinct social base, a perception of the Centre’s neglect of Odisha and the BJP’s ambivalent attitude towards the Naveen Patnaik government seriously constrained its political strategy of what party cadres call “Mission Odisha”, after the stunning electoral victory in Assam.

Ever since the BJP leadership chose Dharmendra Pradhan to get elected to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar in 2012 it became clear that he had been entrusted to lead the BJP drive in Odisha.

As petroleum minister in the Modi cabinet Pradhan has been one of the most active and visible ministers spearheading one of Modi’s much-publicised Ujjwala programme. But he is not seen as a mass leader even though he was elected as an MLA in 2000 and an MP in 2004. He is clearly being projected as the BJP’s Odisha chief ministerial candidate.

Inner-Party Factionalism

There have been frequent changes in the Odisha BJP’s presidentship. The change from the last incumbent, Kanak Bardhan Singhdeo, exposed the depth of the factional divide. There are many senior state BJP leaders who seem side-lined.

Two former BJD stalwarts, Bijay Mohapatra and Dilip Ray, who were thrown out by Naveen Patnaik after he assumed charge as CM, are now in the BJP. The two seasoned leaders have their firm popular bases in coastal and western Odisha. The choice of the current party president Basanta Panda from western Odisha was seen as a weak compromise to aid Pradhan’s hold over the BJP state unit. Thus the factions within the BJP make it difficult to function as a coherent organisation.

Besides, the BJP has failed to make any headway on building a social base of its own. Initially, it focused on mobilising the people of tribal regions and the farming castes to show that it was different from the Congress and the BJD which are led by Odisha’s two leading castes, Karans or Kayasthas (surnames Patnaik, Mohanty etc) and Brahmins (Mishra, Satpathy etc). The party sought to convey this message by choosing Jual Oraon, Manmohan Samal and Pradhan who belong to the farmer caste.

BJD’s Growing Clout

The BJP expanded its support base across Odisha when it shared power with the BJD during 2000-2009. In the wake of the anti-Christian riots in Kandhamal, Naveen Patnaik dissolved the alliance and contested the 2009 elections on its own. While the BJD went from strength to strength, the BJP saw a progressive decline, although the 2014 assembly elections, held along with the Lok Sabha polls, saw the party winning 10 seats. While Odisha defied the Modi wave in the 2014 elections, the BJP’s vote share rose to 21.05 percent.

In his recent speeches Modi has avoided making harsh attacks on the Naveen Patnaik regime. BJP President Amit Shah too disappointed his Odisha party leaders by refraining from criticising the BJD government. It was seen as placating Naveen Patnaik to seek his support in the Rajya Sabha on GST and other issues. On his part, Patnaik has absented himself from attending Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee’s swearing-in ceremonies. These moves have helped Naveen soften the BJP opposition. At the same time, the CBI was seen as going slow against BJD politicians allegedly involved in the Saradha chit fund and mining scandals.

Challenges for BJP in Odisha

• Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is yet to emerge as an alternative to Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. 
  
• Former BJD stalwarts like Bijay Mohapatra and Dilip Ray, who are now with the BJP, have been side-lined.
  
• BJP has not been able to consolidate its vote base, be it tribals or those belonging to the farming community.
  
• Muted attacks on Naveen Patnaik government by BJP leaders hint at an “understanding” with the BJD, which might not bode well for the former.
  
• By failing to raise issues closer to the people, BJP has been unable to fill the opposition space left by a weakened Congress.
  

BJP’s Prospects Ahead

The Modi regime’s economic strategy, like his predecessor’s, fully corresponds to Naveen’s determined bid to develop mining-based industries in Odisha. The BJD government has outdone the UPA’s or the Modi-led BJP’s numerous welfare schemes. Therefore, BJP had very little to offer by way of economic policies to attract the people of Odisha. In fact, there were serious complaints against the Centre for drastically reducing drought relief allocation, delay in railway construction projects and not including the Odisha coast in the economic corridor, reducing central allocations for welfare schemes and so on.

In Odisha, the BJP could fill some opposition space vacated by the Congress which failed to overcome factionalism and upper caste domination or offer an alternative development strategy. But the BJP is yet to set itself on an Odisha-specific revival path. So both seem to make more space available for the BJD.

The tragedy is that the BJD has continued as a care-giver government while people needing care continue to grow. As a strong promoter of extractive capitalist economy with high magnitude of poverty and increasing inequalities it will soon reach its limits.

(The writer is a former Professor of Political Science, University of Delhi)

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