Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a rally at Phulbari in poll bound Meghalaya yesterday. The state will vote on 27th February along with Nagaland. In his inimitable style he blamed the Congress for backwardness of the state and ‘wasting fifty years’. He urged people to give five years to BJP to facilitate double engine of growth. Meghalaya is witnessing a fascinating quadrangular contest between Congress, BJP and regional parties UDP and NPP.
15 Years of Congress Rule
The state has been a Congress stronghold. In its entire electoral history since 1972, only one non-Congress government has completed a full 5 year term in Meghalaya. For the first time the party is facing a big challenge, battling anti-incumbency of 15 years rule. Seven MLAs from Congress have left the party and joined mostly NPP. Six independents who were backing Congress government have withdrawn support and joined NPP and BJP.
Meghalaya is one of the two states where Congress is left in power along with Mizoram in the North East.
The party has lost three state governments in Assam, Manipur and Arunachal in the North East in the last four years since ‘Modi factor’ reduced party to its lowest tally in Lok Sabha.
Voters’ Penchant for Hung Verdicts With Independents Calling the Shots
The state has given a clear verdict in only one of the nine elections held so far since its formation in 1972. The first election saw regional party AHL (All Party Hill Leaders Conference) bagging 32 out of 60 seats. In all elections since then, Congress has emerged as the single largest party.
Independents have ruled the roost in the state with impressive performance elections after elections. In many polls, they have recorded the second highest vote share after Congress. It is with the help of Independents that Congress has been ruling the state since 2003.
Some of the high profile independents are contesting on party symbol this time. In fact, out of 13 independent MLAs in current assembly 10 have aligned with one or other party. For example, Robinus Syngkon, Justine Dkhar, Edmund Sangma and Sayeedullah Nongrum are contesting from BJP. On the other hand, NPP has managed to get Hopeful Bamon and Stephanson Mukhim to contest on their symbol. Brigady Marak and Michael Sangma have tickets from Congress.
It is also worth noting that the state has always witnessed fierce contests. In 20 out of 60 seats in 2013, the victory margin was less than 1000 votes.
NDA and NEDA partners contesting polls separately
The state has 60 seats (5 General, 55 reserved for ST), 24 seats each in Khasi and Garo hills, 7 in Jaintia hills and 5 in Rio Bhoi. Majority of the state population is tribal (85% ST). 75%+ population practice Christianity as their religion.
The two main regional opposition parties United Democratic Party (UDP) and late P.A. Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) are part of NEDA.
NPP is even part of NDA, but both these parties are not contesting in alliance with BJP. Nobody in a mood to share a small pie.
BJP maintains its strategy of contesting without NDA partner, earlier seen in Maharashtra in 2014 and last year in Manipur. This policy is being followed in Meghalaya as well as Nagaland. In Nagaland as well NPF, part of NDA, is contesting separately.
This is primarily due to the big brotherly attitude of BJP, arm twisting smaller allies for more seats to fulfil its ambitions to grow in the state and of course in hope of keeping the Chief Minister’s chair. In Manipur, all parties of NDA – BJP, NPP, NPF, LJP – contested separately resulting in a hung assembly. BJP emerged as the single largest party and post poll all came together to form the government.
However, this strategy may backfire in Meghalaya. A four-cornered contest has made contest interesting and it is very difficult to predict whether any party will go past the half way mark, as the anti-incumbency votes will be split among three parties.
2014 Lok Sabha Performance
The 2013 assembly election performances of parties do not show a true picture of the ground realities in the state currently. BJP has emerged as one of the key players, NCP’s influence has declined and NPP has emerged as a strong contender. Hence we take a look at the Lok Sabha numbers to gauge their relative strengths, however, to note, NPP and BJP had contested these polls in alliance.
NE votes for candidate, not parties
North East has a strong penchant for personalities. The outcome largely depends upon popularity ratings of candidates and leader of the alliance.
NPP is banking on the charisma of PA Sangma’s son Conrad Sangma who became an MP from Garo Hills in 2014, considered to be a strong area of Congress CM Mukul Sangma.
However, he contested on NDA ticket and benefitted from Modi factor as well. He has denied any post poll alliance with any party. However, this is more of posturing, and in case help is required, he could reach out to UDP or BJP.
The state has had a history of defections with people hopping from one party to another. BJP is also banking on turncoats from other parties, along with the Modi factor and good form in North East where it has now governments in 5 out of 8 states including Assam.
The party is doing well to manage the contradictions in its ideology and the way of life in the state. It is not making beef or Hindutva an election issue, banking solely on development.
The UDP has formed an alliance with Hill State People's Democratic Party (4.2% vote share in 2013) and Garo National Council (0.7%).
To conclude, many contenders in the fray have ensured chances of a hung assembly are high in the state in line with the general trend. Then it will be back to jod-tod politics which NE is famous for. NPP appears well placed though, and is likely to emerge as single largest party riding on anti-incumbency, legacy of PA Sangma, youth factor and popularity of his children Conrad and Agatha.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker turned political consultant, strategist and commentator. He is co-founder of LoudST and can be reached @politicalbaaba.)
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