BJP leaders have been having apoplectic fits after Rahul Gandhi announced that he was ready to be prime minister if the Congress “emerged as the biggest party’’ in 2019.
The sharpest attack came from no less a person than Narendra Modi who taunted Rahul variously as “naamdaar’’, “immature’’ and “arrogant’’ and asked whether the country would accept such a leader.
It was all rather bizarre because the BJP’s response seemed way out of proportion to the event. The question to Rahul was a hypothetical one: Will you be the next prime minister? Rahul replied cautiously with plenty of caveats. “Well, It depends….it depends on how well the Congress does…..I mean if it emerges as the biggest party, yes,’’ he said.
The Opposition Largely Saw “Nothing Objectionable”
While the BJP bit the bait like hungry fish and slammed its favourite punching bag, the muted response from potential Congress allies in the Opposition camp reveals a different story. Queens like Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee chose not to comment. Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Akhilesh Yadav’s SP saw “nothing objectionable’’ in Rahul’s remarks.
Their indifference to what the BJP hyped as unacceptable and offensive speaks of a loose understanding among Opposition parties that the occupant of the PM’s post will be chosen after the elections on the basis of numbers and consensus. Rahul Gandhi is not the default option by virtue of being the Congress president; nor does the opposition intend to project him as its PM face. And Rahul himself knows it, as evident from the ifs and buts in his remarks.
The cards in the Opposition camp are stacked in an interesting manner. Let’s consider the parties one by one and the ambitions of their respective leaders. DMK is already talking to the Congress about a tie-up in Tamil Nadu. According to those familiar with the talks, DMK leader MK Stalin has told his interlocutors that he is not interested in a post in Delhi. He wants to be the next chief minister of his state.
Ditto for Akhilesh Yadav. The SP chief wants to reclaim the CM’s chair in the next election and is working out a seat adjustment with the BSP with this goal in mind.
Although NCP strongman Sharad Pawar has long been described as PM-in-waiting, those close to him say that his poor health and age have dulled this ambition. He is now focused on building a base for his daughter Supriya Sule and nephew Ajit Pawar in Maharashtra with the help of the Congress.
At one point, Pawar seemed to be flirting with the BJP but he has shrewdly read the Modi-Shah duo’s overweening ambition for supremacy and dominance. A weakened Congress led by someone like Rahul who is yet to find his feet in politics suits him better.
An Opposition leader privately revealed that of late, Pawar and Rahul have developed an easy equation with the latter turning to the former for advice and tips. In fact, the two had a meeting just last week to finalise an alliance for the upcoming Lok Sabha bypoll and panchayat elections in Maharashtra.
In fact, it is Pawar who has been instrumental in persuading several Opposition leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav that the Congress has to be a partner in the fight against Modi, before or after the 2019 polls.
The Two Women Bosses May Think Differently
Should the Congress actually emerge as the single largest party post polls, these three leaders are unlikely to object to a prime minister from the Congress. The only ones who may stonewall a Congress bid are the two women bosses, Mamata and Mayawati.
Both have outgrown state politics and are now looking beyond their home borders for a larger role in national politics. And both privately see themselves as possible prime ministers. Significantly, neither has a rapport with Rahul. They get on better with Sonia Gandhi.
However, as a senior Opposition leader pointed out, these are matters for post-poll negotiations. The opposition cannot make any move if Modi and the BJP win a majority or come close to the majority mark in 2019.
Saffron Desperation for a Rahul vs Modi Clash
The first step then is to hammer out seat adjustments across states to put up a one-on-one fight against the BJP so that anti-BJP votes are not divided. The discussions on who will be PM will start only after the Opposition defeats Modi fair and square.
The eagerness with which the BJP picked up the gauntlet thrown down by Rahul reveals the saffron camp’s desperation to turn the 2019 polls into a presidential contest between Modi and Rahul. BJP strategists are convinced that Modi is a sure fire winner in this battle.
The BJP’s desperation is matched by the Opposition’s determination to prevent a Rahul versus Modi personality clash. This is why the Opposition is unlikely to form a grand anti-Modi alliance with Rahul as the nominated leader.
There was a historical parallel in 2004 when Opposition parties and the Congress crafted statewise alliance to fight the Vajpayee-led BJP. They strictly avoided a Sonia versus Vajpayee contest and managed to squeak past the BJP.
As it turned out, although the Congress was the largest party then, Sonia refused the offer to be PM and nominated Manmohan Singh instead.
In stating that he would be PM if the Congress emerged as the largest party, Rahul was merely making a rhetorical admission. He cannot be seen running away from responsibility now that he is in politics full-time.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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