As a new government takes shape in Bangladesh, there are emerging signs that the United States (US) will have a significant influence on the changed political order. The US appears to have developed extensive linkages in the protest movement that dislodged the Sheikh Hasina government on Monday.
Many of the top 10 leaders engaged in forming the new interim government are known for their leanings towards the United States, sources within the protest movement said.
They include Mahmudur Rahman Mazumdar, a former army brigadier who is active in politics. Political analysts in Dhaka regard Nobel Laurette Muhammad Yunus, who is expected to head the new interim government, as a strong supporter of the US. Student leader Nahid Islam who played a key role in persuading a reluctant Yunus to take charge of the interim government is regarded for his pro-US leanings.
The government of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the US administration had a running tiff over the past few years. She accused American officials of interfering in the country’s internal affairs. She often said that the US had no right to lecture Bangladesh on democracy. Leaders of her Awami League have often described American officials as “a bunch of hypocrites.”
“The US was unhappy with the Hasina government. Now that the government has collapsed, it will try to make sure that the Chinese do not gain influence in the new government,” Farid Hossain, editor of the Dhaka-based United News of Bangladesh, told this writer.
And now, her visa has been reportedly revoked by the US.
Hasina was known to be close to the Indian government during her 15-year-long reign, though she also had business dealings with China. One of the important milestones in the India-Bangladesh relations was an agreement between Hasina and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to settle the dispute over sharing the waters of the Teesta river.
Bangladesh accepted infrastructure finance from Chinese companies but did not politically align itself with Beijing as it did with India. In mid-July, Hasina cut short her China visit and returned to Dhaka after disagreements with Chinese leaders. Beijing did not accept her request for financial assistance, resulting in a rift.
Her ouster has resulted in a sharp decline in Indian influence with many anti-Hasina forces blaming New Delhi for supporting her style of autocratic governance. She has been accused of conducting sham elections after sending thousands of political opponents to jail. The former prime minister has escaped to India but she is looking for asylum in another country.
As her government fell, the question that surfaced was who would replace India as the most influential external factor in Bangladesh. Most observers agree that India is unlikely to regain its earlier position because she was too closely associated with Hasina.
Weeks before the government collapse, it was evident that student leaders engaged in a protest movement were guided by trained and experienced people operating in the background.
“These 20-24-year-old youth who were leading a well-coordinated movement involving millions of people appeared surprisingly methodical and organised. There was no sign of differences within their ranks. They were absolutely different from the temperamental leaders of opposition parties,” said a Dhaka-based university teacher who requested anonymity. “Many people think they were guided by a select group of American experts engaged in NGOs,” he added.
The country’s army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman made a media statement within hours of Hasina leaving Dhaka on Monday. He gave the impression of carrying out a coup as he said he would “take full responsibility” for the nation and asked the people to “trust the army.”
Later developments showed that the army was not in full control, although it had earned some fame by rejecting Hasina’s orders to crack down on the agitating students.
Reports suggest that India had warned the former Prime Minister that Zaman was closely connected with China and appointing him involved potential risks. Hasina ignored the advice and promoted Zaman to chief of the army on 23 July. He is married to a cousin of the former Prime Minister. His role in bringing down the Hasina government has been widely noted in diplomatic circles.
There are signs that Zaman will try to seek power by obtaining the support of opposition parties, Jamaat e Islami and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). BNP leader and former PM Khaleda Zia was relieved of her prison sentence within a day of the government collapse. The Hasina government had banned the Jammat but this may be lifted soon.
If successful, Zaman will be following the pattern of military generals in Pakistan who work in cahoots with Islamic fundamentalists to control and suppress elected governments. Jamaat is upfront about its adherence to a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam. Meanwhile, the BNP led by Zia is known to be a close supporter of Pakistan.
The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the spy agency of the Pakistani military, has also been actively creating dissensions against the Hasina government. It is known to work with the backing of the cadre of the Jamaat. The question is whether a China-Pakistan combine will work with the help of Opposition parties and whether the Bangladesh army chief to control the new government in Dhaka.
This is exactly what the US is most concerned about. Washington has other reasons to try to gain influence in Dhaka. Bangladesh can provide a route to neighbouring Myanmar which is strategically important for the US but is heavily under Chinese influence. The US is working through agitating student leaders and democratic forces to gain influence in the interim government likely to be headed by Yunus.
“The United States can encourage dialogue between democratic stakeholders and support international and domestic non-governmental organisations to help Bangladesh’s next generation of leaders develop the skills needed to shape their country’s future,” Geoffrey Macdonald, an expert wrote on the website of the government-backed United States Institute of Peace.
“Additionally, the United States remains popular among Bangladesh’s citizens and newly ascendant political class, which creates the potential to forge strong ties with whatever government comes next,” he added.
Hence, as Bangladesh’s next steps remain a mystery, it is crucial to realise the threat it poses for both India and the US.
(Saibal Dasgupta has been a foreign correspondent for 18 years and has authored Running with the Dragon: How India Should Do Business with China. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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