India-aligned Bangladesh, whose former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled exactly two months ago for asylum in New Delhi, is today geopolitically unrecognisable, proving that British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s famous quip about the potential for sweeping changes occurring in politics in a short span of time holds good for geopolitics too.
Post Hasina, Bangladesh’s international relations are being drastically transformed and overhauled. The new regime has shelved the 'India-First' policy which prioritised and fast-tracked all our requirements since 2009.
With Hasina gone, Bangladesh is no longer in India’s camp, which has grave implications for us.
India Needs To Be Blamed For Banking Solely on Hasina
Bangladesh has, in fact, completely spun out of India’s orbit, creating major diplomatic and strategic challenges for the Narendra Modi-led government, which today is struggling to cope with the sudden loss of its most dependable ally in the whole of South Asia.
Needless to say, we have only ourselves to blame for the debacle in our backyard by putting all our eggs in the Hasina basket.
Not only has the overt and covert influence of the United States skyrocketed in Bangladesh since August 5, given Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus’s long and deep ties with Washington, but Dhaka and Islamabad are also cosying up like long-lost brothers uniting after years of forced separation, reviving spectres that India thought had been laid to rest forever.
Nothing exemplifies the deteriorating India-Bangladesh relations better than Modi’s refusal to meet Yunus on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, whereas he would meet Hasina anywhere in the world at the drop of a hat and publicise their talks.
Although a Yunus-Modi engagement didn’t materialise, both called on US President Joe Biden in New York. Interestingly, the jury is out in Bangladesh on whom Biden — the most powerful man on Earth — hugged more tightly and for longer, revealing the new competitive flavour in bilateral ties, with ordinary Bangladeshis openly questioning India’s perceived pre-eminence in every field.
Yunus in UN: Bangladesh Comes Out of India's Shadows
How far Bangladesh has come out of India’s shadow to hold its own in the world is evident from Yunus’ packed itinerary in New York, whereas Hasina often relied on New Delhi to deal with great powers.
Remarkably, Yunus — the Bangladeshi leader India is shunning — received a standing ovation on the global stage, despite being only an unelected provisional “PM”, so to say.
I think he walked with great authority in his foray onto the world stage as a Head of Government and certainly commanded more respect than an interloper like Hasina, who lacked legitimacy as she resorted to outright fraud in election after election — sadly, with our collusion, which has sullied India’s image and badly weakened our standing in Bangladesh.
In hindsight, the diplomatic-security establishment knows fully well that it bungled and how difficult it will be to retrieve the lost ground.
Modi likely didn’t schedule a meeting with Yunus because he was apprehensive that the latter would raise two sensitive issues which New Delhi wants to avoid discussing for as long as it can: Hasina’s extradition to stand trial in a horde of criminal cases, and the alleged glaring irregularities in the power deal that the Hasina regime signed with the Adani Group.
However, in addition to addressing the UN General Assembly, which Modi didn’t this time, Yunus held meetings with President Biden, former President Bill Clinton, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, World Bank chief Ajay Banga and Asian Development Bank’s head Masatsugu Asakawa.
Is there any doubt that these add up to a very successful maiden diplomatic outing by the octogenarian economist-turned-caretaker PM?
Modi Govt Must Dispel Notion That India is Harbouring Hasina
All these high level engagements over the course of a few days signal the full backing of the US-led West and China for Yunus’ agenda at a time when Bangladesh is veering away from India as India is showing no signs of addressing the genuine concerns of the post-Hasina regime in Dhaka or the misgivings among ordinary Bangladeshis about New Delhi’s real intentions and goals.
Mohamad Muizzu’s visit to India from 7 October is ample proof that New Delhi’s strategic patience and modesty are paying off in the Maldives. I think we have done ourselves a big favour by quietly giving in to Male’s demand to withdraw all Indian military personnel from the archipelago.
In the case of Bangladesh, the Modi government must immediately do everything it can to dispel the notion somehow gaining currency across the border that New Delhi is harbouring Hasina, so that she can not only fight her political battles from Indian soil but take the fight to Bangladesh with India’s help.
We must also get ready to discuss the tricky subject of extraditing Hasina as there is no running away from it.
I think we have made a good beginning by officially and openly engaging with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. The first meeting between our High Commissioner Pranay Verma and BNP’s Fakrul Islam Alamgir was a good ice-breaker. Reaching out to the Jamaat-e-Islami with utmost sincerity is equally important. And Modi should meet Yunus at the first opportunity in India’s national interest.
(SNM Abdi is a distinguished journalist and ex-Deputy Editor of Outlook. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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