Putting Left’s 34-Year Rule Behind, Bengal Voters Have Moved on

Depletion in the Congress’ ranks and the Left’s identity crisis could help Mamata’s TMC retain its electoral gains.

If elections were nothing but tallying previous vote shares, West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) boss Mamata Banerjee’s life could be a lot more hazardous than what it is. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, TMC polled 39.8 per cent votes in the state and so did the present alliance of Congress and the CPI(M)-led Left Front who were rivals then. With the same vote share as TMC had this time round, will the alliance get the same number of seats as TMC? And, more intriguingly, if the jackpot of 17 per cent votes that BJP, riding the Modi wave, won in 2014 shrinks this year, who will benefit more, TMC or the alliance? 

The ‘alliance’ (mahagathbandhan) idea was successful in Bihar where RJD and JD(U) supporters were evenly distributed across the state. It is not possible in Bengal where Congress supporters are rolled tight into the only two Muslim-majority districts of Malda and Murshidabad, with a sprinkling in north Bengal. The left votes, on the contrary, are spread across the state, though it has got thinner with every election, standing at 29 per cent in 2014. If the alliance were there that year, its lead in 28 seats could be 95. But even that is way below the half-way mark in an assembly of 294 seats.

How Will BJP Perform?

In the last parliamentary election, Narendra Modi appeared as a credible alternative to the Sonia Gandhi-led UPA which had suffered a huge image problem due to a series of corruption charges. It was believed that Modi, if elected to power, would not only rid the administration of corruption but replicate the economic growth of Gujarat under his charge. However, though the public suspicion of corruption at the top has lessened much since Modi’s appointment as PM, the hope of rapid economic growth has been belied by depleting private and public investments.

In addition, the divisive and majoritarian ideology of BJP and its driving force, the RSS, has cast its shadow on public perception of the Modi administration. It is likely to impact even more in a state like West Bengal where BJP has no historical roots.

If BJP ends up with half the share of 2014 votes, the consequent exodus of 8 to 9 per cent votes is unlikely to head for the alliance. CPI(M) supporters do not vote BJP even on impulse. So the returning crowd from BJP will in all likelihood fall into the TMC’s lap. The reverse swing may be particularly noticeable in areas where BJP did unexpectedly well two years ago, like the Asansol coal belt and some pockets in and around Kolkata.

Will Incumbent TMC Make a Comeback?

• In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, TMC polled 39.8 per cent vote equivalent to the vote share of Congress and the CPI(M)-led Left Front.
  
• Question is who will be benefited if the vote share of 17 per cent that BJP got in 2014, witnesses a downfall.
  
• With Modi’s appointment as PM, while corruption has lessened, the hope of a rapid economic growth has been belied.
  
• Change under the TMC regime is visible in the state with development evident both in rural as well as urban areas.
  
• General perception among people is that the 34 years of leftist rule was a dismal past from which they have moved on.
  

Is Trinamool a Better Bet?

The alliance, on the other hand, is stymied by the Congress’ reduction to virtual non-existence in south Bengal, its leadership being reduced to a few 70-somethings who had briefly tasted power during the glory days under Indira Gandhi and spent the rest of their life on the fringes. The more agile in the Congress moved to TMC after its formation in 1998. The left too is facing an identity crisis. While youngsters still romanticise about how to change the world, they no longer think that getting elected to the assembly is its first step. For those who seek power for themselves, TMC is certainly a better bet.

Nor does Banerjee’s boast of re-energising Bengal’s economy sound downright hollow, despite her somewhat comic claim that she accomplished “ninety-nine per cent” of her promises. In an article in the Financial Times in January last, state Finance Minister Amit Mitra was quoted saying that “state collection has doubled in four years, while spending in infrastructure has tripled and deficits are down.”

Leaving the Left Legacy Behind

But even more interesting are the charts presented in the daily comparing some aspects of the last year of the Left Front government’s rule with that of 2014-15. In these four years, the state plan size increased three times, social infrastructure spend (health and education) three times, spend on agriculture and rural development five times, physical infrastructure expenditure three times and capital outlay as much as six times. Obviously, Banerjee prepared to spend her way to victory in 2016, but its effect is visible in the state where most cities have got sewer pipes for the first time, and in villages, where roads and electricity have reached, and land prices are rising.

Banerjee is far from an inspiring leader and her campaigners include plenty of shifty characters and downright thugs. But most people think the 34 years of leftist rule was a dismal past from which they have moved on.

(The writer is Delhi-based veteran journalist)

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