Sasikala’s ‘Lucky Number’ Will Bring Bad Luck for Panneerselvam

Sasikala may take over as the Tamil Nadu CM on 12 or 18 January, depending on propitious time, writes TS Sudhir.

If body language is anything to go by, it said tons when VK Sasikala, the new AIADMK general secretary and O Panneerselvam, the Tamil Nadu chief minister, made an appearance together at a media event organised by the India Today group in Chennai on Monday. The two principal leaders of the party made no eye contact, no visible show of any rapport or warmth. In fact, Sasikala hardly acknowledged the CM's presence.

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Chinnamma’s First Non-Party Appearance

All ministers and senior secretaries were in attendance, getting into the venue a good 45 minutes before the event began. You wouldn't find this in any other state in the country. And they were there to make their presence felt when Chinnamma, as Sasikala is referred to, was making her first non-party appearance in public.

But more than her entry, it was the moment when Sasikala made her exit that raised eyebrows and conveyed where Panneerselvam stands in the scheme of things. She chose not to wait for Panneerselvam's speech, the excuse being given of a party meeting. But given the state of the party, they would have hardly protested if she turned up ten minutes late.

Also Read: Making of Chinnamma: How Sasikala’s Anointment Was Stage-Managed

Sasikala to Take Over as CM

• AIADMK sources suggest Sasikala will take over as Tamil Nadu CM either on 12 or 18 January depending on which day is astrologically auspicious.
  
• Senior AIADMK leader Thambidurai urges Sasikala to take over as CM, the political intention being to show that Chinnamma is a reluctant leader.
  
• Panneerselvam bows down to party diktats and gives in willingly as posters appear referring to him as ‘Treasurer of the AIADMK’.
  
• Since the BJP would have been more comfortable with Panneerselvam as the CM, the AIADMK reaches out to the saffron party to assuage any apprehensions.
  

Panneerselvam’s Days Are Numbered

Sources in the AIADMK and the Tamil Nadu government indicate that Panneerselvam's days in the top job are numbered. They point out that the astrologers have indicated two good days for Sasikala to take over at Fort St George, that houses the Tamil Nadu secretariat. With Pongal round the corner, either 12 January or 18 January could be one of the two dates when Sasikala could become the CM.

The preparations have been on for some time now. The critical support came from senior leader M Thambidurai, Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha. He put out a four-page statement urging Sasikala to take over as CM. It’s surprising because Thambidurai was spoken of as someone who too could have been nudged by the BJP to return to state politics as CM.

Thambidurai is in the long list of AIADMK leaders, who have been tasked with appealing to the new presiding deity at the Poes Garden, to take over the reins of the state. Several ministers at different fora have already passed resolutions asking Sasikala to head both the party and the government, like MGR and Jayalalithaa before her. The intention is to make Sasikala appear as a reluctant leader who has to be coaxed to wield power.

Also Read: 9 Crucial Facts About Sasikala, AIADMK’s New General Secretary

Panneerselvam, the New-Old CM

Panneerselvam is not expected to show resistance because he knows he has nil support within the legislature party. And the fact that his own ministers are openly asking for his removal shows they do not think much of Panneerselvam's self-respect. The CM's position has been undermined and his authority eroded.

Panneerselvam himself has not been covering his position with glory. In the banners welcoming Sasikala on 31 December, when she arrived at the AIADMK office to take over as party chief, Panneerselvam described himself as ‘Treasurer of the AIADMK' and not as chief minister. Sycophancy overloaded, it went on to say, “The sister who was not born with Amma, who worked hard, like how a candle melts and protected Amma and the party, I fall at your feet to welcome you.''

Even the manner in which his own senior colleagues refer to Panneerselvam borders on ridicule. Rajya Sabha MP V Maitreyan called him “the new old CM''.

Last month, when Sasikala visited Jayalalithaa’s final resting place with Panneerselvam and other ministers, her press statement ignored the CM’s presence, mentioning only the ministers. The idea clearly is not to establish Sasikala as the first among equals. She is trying to follow the Jayalalithaa model of leadership where she is the sole face of the party.

In the AIADMK, the rank and file wears its loyalty on their sleeve and in their shirt pocket. The ubiquitous Amma photograph in every transparent shirt pocket of an AIADMK leader, has in many cases been replaced by a card that has both Amma and Chinnamma in the frame. One leader who still carried Jayalalithaa's photograph alone said it is quite likely that he too will have to fall in line soon.

Opposition parties like the PMK have been talking of widespread opposition to Sasikala's leadership from the cadre. They say it is only the MLAs and district secretaries who have rallied around Sasikala now to ensure power does not slip away from them till 2021.

But the Sasikala camp makes light of reports that the cadre is not happy with the new leader. “Everyone expected the party to splinter like it did after MGR's death in 1987. What is being highlighted is only the one percent disgruntled cadre where as 99 percent of the AIADMK is happy with Chinnamma,” says an AIADMK leader.

Also Read: Between BJP & OPS, It May Not Be Easy for Sasikala to Take Over TN

BJP Is in the Loop

The earlier thinking was that Sasikala will take over from Panneerselvam only after the verdict in the Disproportionate Assets case in which she is the accused number 2, is delivered. But now her camp thinks that as chief minister, her chances of acquittal will brighten.

There have been apprehensions over how the BJP is likely to react to these developments in the AIADMK. The IT raids last month on the former chief secretary and some politically influential contractors were seen as a message to the AIADMK. But the fact that Sasikala decided to become general secretary, was proof that the AIADMK wanted to tell the BJP not to poke its nose into its party affairs. Sources say, even though the BJP would be more comfortable with a Panneerselvam in government and Sasikala in party arrangement, the Sasikala camp has reached out to Delhi as well.

“The transfer of power from Jayalalithaa to Panneerselvam and now Sasikala becoming the general secretary were done with the BJP in the loop. Sasikala taking over as the CM would also be done with Delhi in the know”, says a Sasikala camp follower.

Also Read: Amma to Chinnamma: Will Sasikala Carry Jayalalithaa’s Legacy?

Chinnamma Has Arrived

Sasikala will then have six months to get elected to the Tamil Nadu assembly. Though RK Nagar assembly constituency – vacant after Jayalalithaa's demise – will be an obvious seat to fight from, an urban pocket in Chennai could be an iffy proposition. Sasikala could opt to fight from a Thevar community stronghold seat in southern Tamil Nadu by asking a legislator to quit for her.

It is evident that Sasikala has moved her pieces on Tamil Nadu's political chessboard very well, reducing bishops and knights to mere pawns. As far as the optics go, posters and banners, an adulatory filmy beat anthem, souvenirs are visual evidence that AIADMK's Chinnamma has arrived.

(The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached @Iamtssudhir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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