1 June marks not just the end of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but also the termination of Arvind Kejriwal's interim bail, plunging Delhi's Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) national convenor back into judicial custody. His arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the Delhi liquor policy case and subsequent bail for election campaigning have been unprecedented in India's legal and administrative history.
Under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) regime, Kejriwal became the first sitting chief minister arrested by the ED, a distinction previously avoided by others like Jharkhand’s Hemant Soren, who resigned before his arrest.
As Kejriwal heads back to jail just before the election results are declared, AAP faces a significant leadership vacuum. Kejriwal's conspicuous push for his wife, Sunita Kejriwal, suggests she will assume a more prominent role in decision-making. Her increased involvement, signalled during Kejriwal's incarceration and his campaigning in Delhi and Punjab, points to a strategic shift within the party.
Despite his return to jail, Kejriwal will not resign as chief minister. This decision will inevitably strain Delhi's administration, especially if the BJP retains power at the centre. The BJP could exploit this situation, using the Lieutenant Governor to interfere in Delhi’s governance or even impose President's Rule, disrupting AAP's administration.
Kejriwal's absence will also affect AAP's role within the Opposition alliance and could lead to internal confusion and miscommunication, weakening the party’s cohesion and strategic direction. Meanwhile, the BJP is likely to capitalise on this instability, potentially triggering defections within the AAP to further destabilise both the party and the Delhi government.
Will Sunita Kejriwal Lead the Party Again?
The AAP has long distinguished itself from traditional Indian political parties like Congress by rejecting dynastic politics. However, recent events surrounding Arvind Kejriwal's arrest and interim bail, and now his imminent return to jail, have sparked speculation that AAP may be gravitating towards a family-centric model.
During Kejriwal's brief period out on bail, it became evident that he was not promoting any leader other than his wife, Sunita Kejriwal, as his successor.
For the first time, Sunita actively campaigned alongside him across Delhi, stepping into a role beyond merely supporting her husband.
Historically, Sunita Kejriwal's involvement in politics was limited, focusing primarily on her husband's campaigns. However, with Kejriwal's arrest, she emerged as the party's new face and primary communicator, effectively carrying forward Kejriwal's vision and messages This could lead to internal ripples within the party, as members grapple with the implications of this new direction. While this strategy might ensure continuity and loyalty within AAP's leadership, it also raises questions about the party's foundational principles and its future trajectory.
As AAP navigates this transitional period, the emphasis on family leadership might foster unity and stability in the short term but could challenge its long-standing ethos of meritocracy and broad-based leadership. The AAP's immediate focus after the Lok Sabha elections is the 2025 Delhi assembly election, with campaigns starting as early as November.
An Emboldened BJP After 2024 Elections?
The BJP's return to power might also lead to an escalation in legal actions against AAP. Home Minister Amit Shah hinted at further investigations into AAP's alleged funding from dubious sources, including Khalistani groups. These investigations could cripple AAP’s operational capabilities and damage its public image, casting a shadow over its political activities and governance in Delhi.
If AAP performs poorly in the Lok Sabha elections and the BJP secures a majority, the central government might push for an early assembly election in Delhi to capitalise on its momentum.
Additionally, the ongoing Swati Maliwal case, involving allegations of physical abuse by Kejriwal's Personal Secretary Bibhav Kumar, presents a precarious situation. The BJP may leverage this case to question the AAP's commitment to women's safety, thereby undermining the party's moral standing and potentially instigating internal discord.
The return of Raghav Chadha, albeit without resuming his previous vigorous campaigning, hints at underlying issues. The conspicuous absence of other Rajya Sabha MPs adds to the perception of instability within the party ranks.
In summary, AAP faces a multifaceted challenge: the threat of defection, the BJP's potential use of legal cases to weaken the party, and internal disunity. How AAP navigates these troubled waters will be pivotal to its survival and ability to continue as a cohesive political force. The party's resilience and strategic acumen are now more crucial than ever as it confronts these existential threats.
(The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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