It is not easy for a senior BJP leader of Haryana’s old city, Karnal, to own up to the steady fall in the popularity of his party. Sitting in the town’s old watering hole, Karnal Club, built by the British in 1893, Ashok Sukheja rattles off many reasons why the party’s fortunes appear to be plummeting in the forthcoming state assembly elections, voting for which takes place on 5 October.
Sukheja, who has seen many elections in the last 60 years, is reluctant to give the BJP a winning number. “They may get restricted to 30 odd seats out of 90. Not enough to form the government.” The Congress party, according to many others that this writer spoke with, seems to be on the cusp of returning to power after 10 years of exile.
While Sukheja displayed old-time candour about the chances of the party, Prime Minister Modi, on the contrary, is trying to shore up the BJP's falling morale by claiming its popularity in every village and town.
Will Haryana will continue to follow its time-tested tradition, ie, electing the central and state government from the same political party?
Going by what Sukheja and scores of others from the state told this reporter, PM Modi, the party’s star campaigner, could be proved wrong. And worse, the falling stock of the BJP could be a repudiation of Narendra Modi himself, even though his supporters and admirers will never publicly admit this. They would rather blame former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who, according to BJP workers, alienated karyakartas and sympathisers of the party.
In the past, no one else mattered, as PM Modi’s popularity was enough to iron out the creases created by the local unit's leaders. Now, the conversation has shifted to what the CM or the legislator has done for his constituency.
The question is — will he take the rap if the BJP does badly?
The BJP’s fortunes have not picked up after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when they managed to win five out of the 10 seats in the state. The Congress party got the other five seats despite Rahul Gandhi’s popularity being sky-high. His campaign slogans and promises resonated amply with the young and the restless who were angry with the Modi government for taking away the prospect of permanent jobs and replacing them with temporary placements under the Agnipath scheme.
People from Haryana take great pride in being contributors to the Indian army and are deeply hurt by the threat of devaluation. Worse, there are hardly any jobs left for them in the industrial sector.
Jobs for the young and their desperate flight to the West have become a major issue. Rahul Gandhi, during his visit to the US, met a young man from Haryana who had spent a lot of money to take the route that most “illegals” do. When he returned to India, he went to the young man’s home and highlighted the misery that the youth have to go through to improve their lives.
Taking up cudgels on behalf of the youth, the Congress party has struck quite a chord with many people in the state.
During this writer’s conversations, a fraction of BJP supporters claimed that despite misgivings towards Khattar, he gave a clean, corruption-free administration. They, however, had no answer when asked if Khattar was not a liability, then why did the BJP leadership change him after nine-odd years? They were again left speechless when asked about the circumstances in which the new chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, was moved from his constituency.
What is also galling for the BJP is the fact that Saini, despite being a good man, seems to be losing his seat. Reports suggest that the party is deploying resources to save him the blushes, but that also means that Saini is not able to campaign for others.
The BJP is also banking on the feud within the Congress party. Until Rahul Gandhi stepped out to campaign and forge unity amongst the top leadership in the state unit — Bhupendra Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja — there were reports of an impending split.
Till she scotched them herself, Selja, a Dalit leader, was rumoured to be joining the BJP. The BJP, on the other hand, keeps reminding the state's Dalits, about 30 percent of the population, that they are not safe under Congress rule.
Hooda is the powerhouse in the state. His son has a mass appeal and his recent padyatra attracted euphoric crowds. His detractors claim that those supporting him are mostly Jats, who are about 26 percent of the population, spread across 30-odd seats but their electoral influence is greater than that.
For 10 long years, the Jats and the Congress party have been waiting for a change in government. The only thing that can upset their calculations is the coming together of an anti-Jat grouping, but neither the Aam Admi Party nor the other regional parties seem to be capable of challenging the bipolar contest between the BJP and the grand old party.
(The author is the editor of Delhi's Hardnews magazine. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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