After JNU Fracas, Young Voters May Strike Back with a Vengeance

Will the young voter seething with anger due to the JNU fracas strike back during upcoming polls , asks Mayank Mishra

India’s much talked-about demographic dividend may not automatically give rise to tangible economic gains – at least, not with immediate effect – but it has certainly made a significant impact on politics.

The verdict in all recent elections – assembly or Lok Sabha – has been decisive. Defining the verdict in terms of an anti-incumbency factor or wave for a charismatic leader would be too simplistic a perspective. The homogeneity of the youth – in the way they think and their political behaviour – is to be credited for this phase of political stability.

We added 18.07 crore people to our population between 1991 and 2001. Many of them are voters now and they constitute roughly 5-15 per cent of the voting population in each of the assembly and Lok Sabha seats depending on the state, and on whether it is an urban or rural seat.

A Different Generation

This post-liberalisation brigade is different from the rest. It hasn’t survived on a diet of scarcity of almost everything, among them licences, loans, telephone connections, vehicles, job opportunities and investment options. These youngsters have, therefore, grown up with the perception that if others have what they want, so can they.

They have observed that an entry to the millionaires’ club is possible even if they aren’t born with the proverbial silver spoon in their mouths. Professional opportunities have multiplied and, with them, the possibility of making an impact with what they do, minting money during youth and having a comfortable life after retirement. For a generation growing up in such an environment, Mandal and Mandir are aberrations in recent history best left alone.

Post-Liberalisation Voters

• Young voters constituting 5-15 per cent in every assembly/ Lok Sabha seat are inclined towards substantive issues like job opportunities, etc.
  
• For the so called gen next, ‘Mandal and Mandir’ are aberrations in history best left alone.
  
• The US witnessed a similar phase when individual voters began asserting themselves in the 60s and the 70s after Watergate.
  
• With assembly elections due in four states, it is this particular group of young voters again that will play a crucial role.
  

America’s Experience

This phenomenon is reminiscent of the US of the 1970s. The US made the transition from a ‘High Context’ to a ‘Low Context’ culture in the 60s and 70s. High and Low context cultures, a concept coined by American anthropologist Edward T Hall, represent extreme societies.

While the former gives primacy to community, the latter is based on the principles of individualism. Actual societies contain elements of both, albeit in different proportions. The US in the 60s and the 70s was witness to an unleashing of individualism that had a deep impact on its economy and polity.

The US added nearly seven crore people to its fold between 1946 and1964, a period popularly known as the ‘baby boom’ generation. Steve Jobs was one such baby and so was Bill Gates (both were born in 1955). Having grown up during the high of the John F Kennedy era and the low of Richard Nixon’s Watergate, this generation began to impose itself on the American polity.

Data shows that in the 70s, more than half the people in the age group of 18-29 voted in the presidential elections. The candidate supported by them almost invariably won the elections. And their political behaviour was shaped by their experience in their formative years.

Politics of Hope?

We have seen an echo of the American pattern in our polity. The post-liberalisation youth in their formative years saw their parents suffer a great deal because of political paralysis and coalition compulsion. They have seen opportunities being frittered away because of the perennial postponement of tough decisions. They have seen the ill-effects of crony capitalism eating into the vitals of the growth engine.

Having seen the plight of their predecessors, the new generation has started believing in the politics of hope. This new spirit is not confined to urban areas alone. The expansion of urbanism through mobile phones, internet and satellite television in the rural hinterland has ensured that even those areas are not untouched by the changes sweeping the country.

Voting En Masse

While the majority of voters are still stuck with fixed choices based on considerations like caste, class, religion, ethnicity, region etc to contend with and hence contribute to a fractured mandate, the new group is much more homogenous and likely to vote en masse. Chances are, some members of this emerging group will influence the political behaviour of their parents too. They are the floating voters who make or mar the chances of a political formation during elections.

With assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory around the corner, it is this particular group that will once again be at the forefront to swing the balance. Having grown up with a discourse on growth, jobs, new entrepreneurial skills etc. they may find it odd as they are suddenly confronted with issues of national/anti-national, Bharat Mata ki Jai and other such markers to flaunt patriotism or intrusion in campuses across the country.

The outcome in this round of elections, and most crucially in Uttar Pradesh next year, will give us a hint to how the post-liberalisation brigade has taken to the changing discourse. A fractured mandate, if it happens, will be the first sign of alienation of this group. That will signal the end of the phase of decisive verdict.

(The writer is Consulting Editor, Business Standard, and contributes regularly for The Quint on politics and contemporary issues)

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