The battle for Bihar enters its last leg in Phase 7 of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with eight seats going to polls on 1 June. Bihar sends 40 MPs to Parliament and the BJP-led NDA (Bharatiya Janata Party, National Democratic Alliance) swept the state, bagging 39 of the 40 seats in 2019. Both the NDA and the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc have built a rainbow coalition of big and small parties.
The NDA hopes to maintain its tally with minimal losses due to the popularity of PM Modi, the silent and loyal vote base of women, and the labharthis [beneficiaries]. The INDIA bloc hopes to make a significant dent in this tally, riding on the decline in popularity of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) [JDU], anti-incumbency against sitting MPs and the Modi government, and issues of inflation and unemployment.
Till Phase 6, the BJP had won 278 seats in 2019. With the chatter of losses in some states, Phase 7 is very crucial for the party and Bihar is the key to maintaining/improving its overall tally in 2024.
Tejashwi Yadav is leading an alliance of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress party, the Left Parties and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). On the other hand, Narendra Modi is leading an alliance of the BJP, the JDU, the Lok Janshakti Party, the Hindustani Awam Morcha, and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha. Nitish Kumar’s U-turn has given an edge to the NDA, otherwise, pollsters were predicting heavy losses.
Tejashwi led a spirited fight in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, almost defeating Nitish [NDA tally 125, Mahagathbandhan 110], with equal vote shares of 37 percent each. If the Congress had done slightly better in the seats allocated to it, then the MGB would have won the elections.
Caste plays a key role in Bihar politics. In 17 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, the same caste's candidate has won the seat in the last three elections — 2009, 2014, and 2019. Eight of these seats have been won by upper-caste candidates, and four by Rajputs (Maharrajganj, Arrah, Vaishali, and Aurangabad).
Nitish conducted a caste census which revealed that OBCs (Other Backward Class) account for 27 percent, EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) 36 percent, SCs (Scheduled Castes) 20 percent, STs (Scheduled Tribes) two percent and the General Category 15 percent of the population. Both sides have fixed vote blocks and the fight is for the EBC/OBC vote, accounting for more than 60 percent of the population.
The NDA has the support from the upper castes (Brahmin, Bania, Rajput), the Kurmi/ Koeri community (the CM and deputy CM’s caste group), and the Mahadalits and Dalits (Chirag Paswan and the LJP) — around 40 percent of the population. Chirag Paswan brings in support from the Dusadh community while Jiten Ram Manjhi from the Musahar community.
The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, has the support of the Muslims and Yadavs (32 percent). The CPI(ML) [Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation] brings in Dalit and EBC support while the VIP brings in Mallah support. The Congress is attempting to woo back a section of its upper-caste voters.
To woo the OBC/EBC voter, the INDIA bloc has given tickets to 23 candidates from the community, almost 60 percent of its total tickets, while the NDA has given 19. Six tickets have been given each to Muslims and Dalits, while five tickets to the general category/upper caste candidates. Among the 16 OBC candidates, 9 are from the Yadav community.
On the other hand, NDA has given the maximum number of tickets to the General Category — 14, its anchor voting base. 19 tickets have been given to OBC/EBC candidates, six tickets to Dalits and one to Muslims (by the JDU). The BJP has given tickets to 10 from the General Category — five Rajputs, two Bhumihar, two Brahmins and one Kayastha candidate.
While the INDIA bloc has given tickets to 57.5 percent of OBC/EBC candidates, the NDA has given 47.5 percent of tickets to this community. And while the NDA has given tickets to 35 percent of upper caste candidates, the INDIA bloc to just 12.5 percent.
The INDIA bloc is clearly eyeing the OBC/EBC vote. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while the NDA got 71 percent of the OBC vote, the INDIA bloc (United Progressive Alliance/MGB at that time) could receive only 13 percent support.
In the 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections, the NDA’s support was reduced to 58 percent (-13 percent) while the INDIA bloc received 18 percent (plus five percent). Others got 24 percent and the INDIA bloc hopes to wean these voters onto their side in 2024 as the contest becomes bipolar.
The RJD is seriously attempting to expand its Muslim-Yadav vote bank and shed its image of a party representing just those two communities, by giving more tickets to OBCs and EBCs from the alliance. Tejashwi Yadav has often said that the RJD represents BAAP — B (Bahujan), A (Agadi), A (Aadhi Abaadi, i.e., Mahila) and P (Poor).
To sum up, the RJD, which couldn’t even open its account in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, is trying a new strategy to make a dent in NDA’s tally in Bihar where it had maxed out in the previous elections. Only time will tell whether this succeeds or not.
(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X (formerly Twitter). This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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