If Mayawati Contests UP Bypolls, BJP Could Be Left in a Fix

There is talk that deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya might be called back to Delhi to avoid the polls.

Amid preparations for the bypolls for two Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, news coming from BJP quarters hint that the state’s deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya will be called back to Delhi to avoid election in the Phulpur seat.

Two seats will be left vacant when Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath and Phulpur MP Maurya resign from the Lok Sabha. They have to contest elections for the Assembly within 6 months of assuming office of chief minister and deputy chief minister respectively.

The Phulpur seat has become a concern for the BJP given the fact that BSP supremo Maywati might contest the election from it, setting her up against Maurya. If this happens, the election will assume the same significance as Indira Gandhi’s win from Karnataka’s Chikmagalur and VP Singh’s election from Allahabad.

Although the BSP has never fought a bypoll and RJD Chief Lalu Prasad Yadav has promised to help Mayawati regain her seat in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP doesn’t want to take chances.

If Mayawati enters the Lok Sabha through a bypoll, it will be symbolic of Opposition unity, and a big blow for the ruling government. This is the reason why the BJP hasn’t engaged in any talks about the bypolls yet.

The Opposition, however, seems to have found the BJP’s weak point.

Talking about the same, Samajwadi Party spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said:

“The BJP is running away from the bypolls. If the polls take place, it will lose both the seats. Even if Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath contests, he could lose it like former chief minister TN Singh.”

In 1971, Tribhuvan Narain Singh, the then chief minister, lost the election from the Maniram Assembly seat. If the Opposition is using this as an example, it’s the self-confidence talking.

United Opposition a Big Challenge for the BJP

Acting on the initiative of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, the SP and the BSP had voted for the Congress’ Meira Kumar in the recently concluded Presidential poll. Gandhi has been pushing for Opposition unity in Uttar Pradesh, much like in Bihar, to give the BJP a tough challenge.

The SP already has an understanding with the Congress. With the BSP entering the picture, winning the two seats won’t be a cakewalk for the BJP. Even the state’s political climate does not seem to be inclined towards the ruling BJP government. The government seems to be failing in several fronts, especially law and order and issues of water, electricity and the farmers’ crisis. All of this could backfire for the BJP in the elections.

Uttar Pradesh has half a dozen ministers who are not part of any House, neither the Vidhan Sabha nor the legislative council. This includes Adityanath, Maurya, Dinesh Sharma, Swatantra Dev Singh and Mohsin Raza. There is one seat vacant in the legislative council and one more could become vacant.

So there will be elections for 3 Vidhan Sabha, 2 Lok Sabha seats and 1 legislative council seat.

Even if Mayawati does not contest the bypoll herself, an Opposition candidate could give the BJP a big challenge. And considering that the next general election is 2 years away, this could be a reason of worry for the BJP.

(This story was originally published on Quint Hindi. The opinion expressed above are of the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor takes responsibility for the same.)