A Midlife Crisis that Rahul Gandhi Can’t Afford to Ignore

On Rahul Gandhi’s birthday, Aakar patel writes why the Grand Old Party is in permanent opposition in the states.

On June 19, Rahul Gandhi turns 46. It is exactly the same age as I am, so let me write about him from that perspective.

The first thing is, what 46 years actually means. It means someone in middle age and represents someone in their late-middle career. By the age of 46, for example, Rahul’s father Rajiv Gandhi had lost the office of prime minister, having already spent five years leading India.

In the corporate world, 46 would be considered senior. Someone of that age would be either leading a company or be close to leading one. If that were not the case by this age, the individual would not be good enough to be the CEO. This is because in the corporate world one’s best work is usually done in their 30s, and by 40 one is either on the path to success or far from making it to the top.

The Congress is a private limited company and not a public limited one, and so it is almost inevitable that Rahul will inherit the top job. But that is a different matter.

Evaluating Rahul’s Career

For now, let us examine Rahul’s career neutrally. First, let me say that Sonia has brought up her children well. They are well behaved, not arrogant (at least in public) and reasonably modest. Amartya Sen, who was at Cambridge when Rahul was studying there, has good things to say about him as a student. In acknowledging all this, we can claim that we are not in any way coloured when judging him politically.

His father was a pilot but Rahul has not done any work outside of politics. There are some companies that he has investments in, and reports of these come out every so often, but there is nothing to show that he actively manages these firms. Nor have they become so successful that they would reflect on his qualities as an investor. So it is fair to say that all his achievements are in politics and it is here that he should be judged.

In Permanent Opposition in States

The record shows that the Congress has won two general elections and lost one, with Rahul in the Lok Sabha. It shows that the Congress is today at its lowest tally in the Centre. It also shows that the Congress is all but wiped out even at the state level. Only one large state, Karnataka, has a Congress government today.

All this is well known and there is no reason to reflect on it here. However, Rahul’s time in active politics has coincided with an interesting phenomenon that must be remarked upon.

In large parts of north and west India, the Congress has gone into permanent opposition. In the two-party state of Gujarat, the Congress has not won an election in 30 years. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, it will be out of power for 15 years when the term of the current governments there ends.

This means that in a direct fight with the BJP, the Congress is unable to successfully mobilise its voters even when there is the usual Indian condition of anti-incumbency. This is a new phenomenon and we have not seen it before. The Congress in permanent opposition in states where it has over 35 per cent of the vote (as it does in Gujarat) indicates that the constituency is there but the leadership and vision are absent.

This is a terrible sign for the future. Absolutely devastating for all Congressmen and women who understand what it means.

Not an Achiever

I would say that this is more damning than the loss of 2014. One could argue that in the Lok Sabha election the most talented politician of our generation, Narendra Modi, swept in on charisma and nobody could have resisted him. But there is no argument against the permanent loss of states where the Congress still has a large and loyal base. It shows that there is no strategy that is effective from the top and no management ability.

In the corporate world, such a performance, such inability to protect marketshare, would be punished severely, we must accept. In the corporate world, Rahul would not have risen far. One is not surprised by this because it is obvious. Even much older men like Amit Shah and certainly the prime minister show much more hunger and energy than Rahul. He seems to be doing what he does without any conviction.

Alexander the Great had conquered all he wanted by 33. Noam Chomsky had done his best work on linguistics by 30. And so Rahul is by no means at an age when one’s best work is ahead. But it is our tradition to wish people on their birthday and, joining me at 46, I wish him all the success he wants in life. And, more than that, I wish him happiness.

(The writer is a senior journalist and executive director, Amnesty International India. He can be reached at @aakar_amnesty)

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