In Wooing Sankaradeva, Modi Seeks to Appeal to Ahom Identity

If the Church is being wooed by the BJP in Kerela ahead of the assembly elections, in Assam Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday sought to reach out to the followers of the 16th Century Vaishnavaite reformer Srimanta Sankaradeva, a potent symbol of Assamese identity.

Modi is the first PM to attend the Srimanta Sankaradeva Sangha annual conference that the Sangha claims is the largest “socio-cultural-religious organisation in northeast India”. Sankaradeva’s legacy fits well with the RSS and Modi’s idea of India; the reformer saint had Sankritised the ethnic groups of the region and apparently assimilated them into the “Indian mainstream”.

The Ahomiya and Indian identities were, however, challenged by several indigenous groups, many of whom then took to violence to assert their identity.

Sivasagar’s Importance

The location of Friday’s address was symbolic too. Sivasagar, the Ahom dynasty’s seat of power, continues to provide the appropriate backdrop as well as audience to a battleground. In fact, Modi and his Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, BJP’s CM candidate for Assam, were seen beating the ritual drum, kicking off, as it were, an electoral battle.

Many years ago, the banned United Liberation Front of Assam too had baptised (as urban folklore goes) in the ramparts of the Rang Ghar, the royal Ahom heritage. Ironically, the first surrender ceremony of the same militia was dramatically hosted at the same venue.

BJP’s Assam Strategy

• Narendra Modi’s address to followers of 16th century Vaishnavaite reformer Srimanta Sankaradeva aimed at courting Ahom identity
  
• Sanakaradeva’s legacy sits well with RSS’ idea of India
  
• Sivasagar, the location of Modi’s address, is significant: It was the Ahom dynasty’s seat of power
  
• Modi’s Assam visit on Friday was also aimed at embarking on a development-based poll campaign: inauguration of gas cracker plant
  
• The BJP will certainly seek to polarise the electorate, but issue of illegal immigration may not work to its advantage
  
• BJP is hoping, along with anti-incumbency, induction of Himanta Biswa Sarma into the party, would impact Congress’ poll strategy
  

Identity vs Development

In other words, Modi checked the right boxes to begin with as he inaugurated two other things; the Gas Cracker Project, a long-awaited promise to Assam under the 1985 Assam Accord and the 12th South Asian Games hosted jointly by Guwahati and Shillong.

At Sivasagar, Modi did not display his usual swagger. Instead, he invoked the saint while going through the entire history of the reform movement. He avoided any reference to the coming election. His only political remark was, “the strength of sarkar and samaj have to combine. That is when we can create the India Srimanta Sankaradeva envisioned.”

However, he must have been aware that in his Lok Sabha victory, seven (of the 14) came from Assam and it is the Upper Assam constituencies that emphatically rejected the traditional Congress vote. In keeping with its royal tradition, it is believed that Upper Assam chooses who rules the state.

So it is not surprising that Sonowal is the preferred BJP CM candidate, and not a Brahmin Sarma from Lower Assam, like an Ahom Gogoi for Congress always edged over a Kalita from Lower Assam.

Perfume Maker’s Challenge

But the 2016 challenge is really not from the more complex Assamese identity formations, but the rising influence of perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal and his party, the AIUDF. In the decadal growth of Muslim population of India between 2001 and 2011, Assam has seen the highest percentage.

As compared to the national average of 0.8 percent, Assam has a change of 3.3 percent. Of the 126 constituencies, at least 40 have a Muslim population that can swing the vote. Ajmal’s fortunes will rest on this swing and so will BJP’s and the Congress’.

Assam BJP’s Best Bet

In the five states going to polls, the BJP imagines Assam is their best bet. They have to stop the losing streak and Assam provides the most plausible stage for a polarised electorate. Illegal immigration may have been the only poll plank for decades but since the first AGP victory it has never quite lent itself to being a decisive issue.

The armed ULFA in several of the elections has played an active role but even that presence is not visible this year. Most of the issues that decide – or don’t decide – elections remain unattended, flood woes to begin with. Neither the Congress, ruling the state for 15 years, nor the BJP, can claim anything worth an election victory.

Will Anti-Incumbency Work?

The BJP has left it to the people to see them through. Earlier this week in Shillong, Sonowal said, “the people of Assam will ensure the BJP’s victory.” But why? He argues that people are fed up of the Congress.

So BJP is hoping, along with anti-incumbency and their induction of former Congress heavyweight Himanta Biswa Sarma into the party, would impact Tarun Gogoi’s election strategy.

Perceived as a doer, Sarma also has a chequered past and his baggage of ULFA, AGP and Congress may not help the image of the party but his relationships with various ethnic muscle powers may help forge alliances.

So while the AIUDF is hoping to win close to 40 seats, the Rashtriya Muslim Manch (RMM) and its associate Jamaat Ulema-e-Hind (JUEH) are hoping for a rerun of the J&K polls where they claim to have wooed the Muslim clergy to an understanding between the PDP and the BJP.

(The writer is a senior journalist and author of Blood on My Hands: Confessions of Staged Encounters)