Russia’s Stint in Syria: India Should Stick to Its Neutral Stand

It is very unlikely that the US will cooperate with Russia in its struggle against Daesh, writes Syed Ata Hasnain.

Common Cause Against the Daesh

• Questions being raised about Russia’s intentions behind launching an offensive in Syria
• Despite the murmurs, outcome of aerial strikes has been impressive so far
• It is unlikely that the US will cooperate with Russia owing to some trust issues
• A wake-up call indeed for United States which seems to be losing grip in West Asia
• Defeat of the Daesh is in India’s interest as well

The Russians got into Syria and started firing from the first moment, turning around their limited Sukhoi Su-24s with almost 80 sorties a day. They have limited numbers in terms of ground-based armaments and boots. A surge will be required if decisive success is the aim unless the weight of the air attacks is in terms of overkill alongside cruise missile attacks, which are already underway. Boots could be supplemented by Hezbollah but that will cause apprehension among the local states.

What is the scope of Russia’s further deployment and what chance does it have for success? Will it be opposed physically by the US and its allies? In an already complex situation will this bring more chaos and add to the complexity? What will be the effect within Russia where 11 percent of the population is Muslim, mostly Sunni. These are just a few questions which need serious answers. Reply to such queries will be varied by different analysts depending on their core beliefs.

Is Russia’s involvement serious enough to defeat Daesh? So far the demonstration is more robust than what the US and all its allies have been able to put together in almost a year of aerial bombings. Russia’s comparatively small deployment of air resources has witnessed a large number of sorties being flown, the identification of targets is causing restrictions and the much spoken of boots on ground resources are far and few. Iran’s involvement is also not easy in the quagmire of friends, foes and neutrals. Thus, militarily Daesh may as yet get away due to the inability of so many of its foes fearing each other and being unable to optimise.

Challenges for Russia

To expect that the US will cooperate to set up a common military aim of defeating Daesh in conjunction with Russia and Iran, appears remote due to sheer mistrust and post-conflict complications in terms of influence. However, two nations which will feel constricted due to the emerging situation are Israel and Saudi Arabia. A Russian-Iranian success would mean the extension of Shia influence right across from Iran to the Mediterranean, the Levant so to say. The Daesh is no friend to the Saudis or the Israelis but both fear Iran much more and now bolstered with Russian presence that is going to create paranoia.

The only saving grace could be the limitations that economics places on Putin’s ambitions of attempting to bring Russia into the international strategic mainstream again. Since neither Saudi Arabia nor Israel would like to be militarily involved at this stage, they can at best hope for the weakening of Daesh, not a full scale victory for the Russian-Iranian combine, and then an eventual withdrawal.

The current situation is also likely to caution the US about its role and receding interest in West Asia; after all, it is not just energy for which the US has had its presence in the region. The realisation may return to the US strategic community, that the circumstances and strategic geo-politics of West Asia will always come in its way with respect to re-balancing equations in the Asia Pacific.

An air campaign without targeting Daesh in Iraq will remain incomplete. Russia must display its intent even more clearly by destroying the oil resources of Daesh.

Russia’s Intent

Russia has followed its military action with a media blitzkrieg which is projecting it as the saviour of Europe. However, it continues to be accused by NATO and its Arab allies of wanting nothing more than the propping up of Bashar Assad. Only a decisive military result in the next few days can send home the seriousness of intent against the Daesh; so time is at a premium. The Sunni population at home can always be psychologically convinced about the harm Daesh wanted to inflict in Russia and Central Asia.

The US is extremely apprehensive due to mistrust in Putin. It accuses the Russian forces of only attacking the moderate Syrian opposition forces. How moderate these forces actually are, is a moot point.

China has found itself left out, but recent unconfirmed reports indicate the possibility of Chinese J -15 aircraft joining the Russian campaign. Always apprehensive of radical Islam and its influence over the western region of Xinjiang, China would be happy to see the defeat of Daesh before its presence in Afghanistan becomes effective. China’s interest lies in supporting Russia in this mission. Given the economic strains that China is undergoing it would like to see a more stable West Asia to ensure the sustained move of energy from the region. It would therefore cooperate with the US to allow Russia’s ambitions to be restricted to just that – the end of the Daesh and no more.

India’s concern reflects from the need for stability in West Asia and the Gulf region, to prevent any disruption in energy supplies and keep its 7 million strong diaspora intact, without any turbulence forcing home-bound movement. The defeat of Daesh is an imperative for India too, given the potential of influence over Indian Muslims and Kashmir. With that central aim being supported, there should be no move from the stated stance of neutrality, because the parties involved in the current situation, all bear strategic importance for us in one way or the other. Although this may militate against India’s growing stature in international strategic affairs, this is surely not the situation where India can change tack and hope to come out as the beneficiary.

(The writer is a former General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps and now associated with the Vivekananda International Foundation and the Delhi Policy Group)

Read the first part here. It is Advantage Russia in Big Power Games in Syria and Iraq