Will Ranil Wickremesinghe Stall China’s Influence on Sri Lanka?

India hopes that the Wickremesinghe government in Sri Lanka will undo Rajapaksa’s pro-China tilt in foreign policy.

• Ranil Wickremesinghe is known for being close to India, even during the India-Lanka accord of 1987
• Under Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka relied heavily on China, especially in context of the former’s human rights violations
• Sri Lanka will continue utilising funding from China, but will revamp defence and strategic co-operation, keeping India in mind
• There is a distinct possibility of an Indo-Lankan free trade agreement

When Ranil Wickremesinghe won Sri Lanka’s national elections, last month India heaved a sigh of relief. For one, former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa is now effectively out and unlikely to make a comeback in the near future. Besides, Wickremesinghe is regarded as a friend of India –from the time of the India-Lanka accord of 1987, when senior leaders of his United National Party vehemently opposed having foreign soldiers (the Indian Peace Keeping Force, IPKF) in the island nation.

That he chose Delhi for his first foreign visit has been noted with appreciation in the South Block – Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it a point to mention this in his opening statement after talks with Wickremesinghe on Tuesday, when the two did a read out for reporters. Wickremesinghe’s three-day visit includes talks with Modi and other senior ministers of the Cabinet. He will also meet President Pranab Mukherjee on Wednesday before flying back to Colombo.

Modi-Wickremesinghe Talks: Reassessing Sino-Lankan Relations

The Modi-Wickremesinghe talks focused on key political and economic issues. India hopes that the Wickremesinghe government will undo Rajapaksa’s pro-China tilt in foreign policy. A friendless Rajapaksa regime, in the dock for human rights abuses during the 2009 military campaign against the LTTE, turned to China for support.

Beijing in turn poured massive funds and kept silent on Sri Lanka’s human rights record. Unlike India, it opposed the US resolution in the Geneva Human Rights Council. Chinese footprints advanced rapidly in the island state. New Delhi was alarmed when a Chinese military submarine docked not once, but twice in Colombo in 2014, seeing it as a threat to its strategic and security interests. It is certain that China figured prominently in closed door discussions between Wickremesinghe and Modi. New Delhi will seek an assurance from Wickremesinghe that he will keep India’s security concerns in mind. In fact, a part of the 1987 India-Sri Lanka accord states that neither country will allow its soil to be used by foreign powers to indulge in activities which may harm the other’s interests.

Sri Lanka to Continue Utilising Chinese Funding

As China spreads itself out in the littoral states in the Indian Ocean, Modi is hoping to also bolster India’s traditional links with its island neighbours. His visit to Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Mauritius in March this year was aimed at reactivating and nurturing these links. Defence and maritime cooperation is likely to intensify between the two countries. Sri Lanka is already India’s largest partner in the defence training programme.

While India tries to combat China’s growing assertiveness in the Indian Ocean, it is difficult to match Beijing’s dollar-backed diplomacy. So it will be unwise to expect Sri Lanka to scrap all Chinese mega-projects. Colombo has a long history of maintaining good relations with China, going way back to the time of Sirimavo Bandarnaike’s tenure as prime minister. Like every other nation, including India, Colombo is looking to China for building and funding major infrastructure projects. Wickremesinghe will certainly welcome Chinese funds but will draw a red line on defence and strategic co-operation with China.

Enabling Ethnic Minorities in Sri Lanka

India will also look to Wickremesinghe for reaching out to the Tamil minorities and finding a solution to the ethnic issue which remains to be a festering wound. Over the years, Wickremesinghe has established excellent credentials with the Tamil and Muslim minorities. This would be a good opportunity for Colombo to give a modicum of self-rule to the ethnic minorities.

Whether they do it through the 13th amendment, which was part of the 1987 accord, or some other means, India will certainly press for devolution of power to the Tamils. The time has come for Wickremesinghe to deliver on his promise. Whether he does so, or retracts in the end, as so many other Sinhala-Buddhist leaders before him, remains to be seen. The UN report on Lankan human rights abuse in 2009 is to be tabled at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva this month. Thanks to the international goodwill that Wickremesinghe enjoys, Colombo will be able to do its own investigation on the abuses. The US and India are backing Sri Lanka on this. India has always been against intrusive UN probes, but would perhaps not be as accommodating if Rajapaksa was in control.

Indo-Lankan Free Trade Agreement

India is keen to push through a comprehensive economic free trade agreement with Colombo. But this agreement in trade and services would take sometime as the two sides try to sell the idea to businessmen of both countries. Sri Lankans are worried that Indian services would be a blow to local service industry. A framework agreement will be worked out by the end of the year, but it is likely to be called by another name. An important part of the Modi-Wickremesinghe discussions was furthering trade and investment between the two neighbours. Sri Lanka released 19 Indian fishermen on Sunday as a goodwill gesture ahead of the PM’s visit. The fishermen’s issue is a sensitive one for Colombo. Indian fishermen are aggressive and often deliberately cross into Sri Lankan territorial waters for better catch. Sri Lankans are exasperated with continuous infringement by Indian fishermen. Once again the two sides have asked fishermen’s associations of the two countries to settle the issue.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist)