Masarat Alam: Modi’s Vajpayee Moment or Recipe for Disaster?

Bhupendra Chaubey looks at why the BJP-PDP alliance is already on the rocks. Is there a way out for Modi in the Masarat Alam impasse?

The man in the picture is Masarat Alam, a leader of the Hurriyat conference, put behind bars by the Omar Abdullah government in 2010 for promoting an anti India sentiment in the Kashmir valley. He is the man now creating a massive headache for Prime Minister Modi.

By aligning with the PDP, a party ideologically so different from his own, Narendra Modi showed that like Vajpayee, he too could reach out to his opponents. Through his alliance with Mufti, the PM indicated that he was even open to reaching out to the separatists and even Pakistan. But the PDP isn’t following the script.

The opposition was united in Parliament on Monday, asking Modi a simple question - does he support the release of Alam by PDP chief Mufti Mohd Sayeed, who became J&K Chief Minister after this warm hug from the PM himself ?

The decision to release Masrat Alam was taken without my knowledge

- Narendra Modi

Now that implies two things -

First, the much touted Common Minimum Program of BJP and PDP in Jammu and Kashmir is a non starter. Are we to understand that a decision as sensitive as releasing a political prisoner like Alam was taken by Mufti alone?

Second, and more significantly, what is it that Modi can do from here? Four options present themselves -

1. Direct the Jammu Home Department to put Alam back in jail. This is fraught with political risk as the valley could erupt again.

2. Use this as an opportunity to actually have a meaningful dialogue with separatists. Reach out to more Sajjad Lone kind of elements within the Hurriyat

3. Bring in Ram Madhav, his trusted lieutenant, to hold talks with Mufti. Ensure that there are no more surprises thrown in by the PDP in the days ahead that could further derail the alliance.

4. Just sit back and do nothing. Frankly, this is the most likely scenario. Law & Order is a state subject anyway.

The other question worth asking is this - why exactly did the Jammu & Kashmir CM take this decision?

1. His mandate is such that he is supposed to be talking to those who don’t necessarily share Indian views on Kashmir

2. In 2002, the same Mufti Mohd Sayeed had released JKLF leader Yasin Malik when he was allied the Congress. So he is familiar with this kind of brinksmanship. Just as the Congress accepted Yasin Malik’s release then, he is possibly quietly confident that the BJP, after some noise, will accept Alam’s release as well.

So don’t think that this is Modi’s ‘Vajpayee’ moment, just yet. On Alam’s release, Mr Modi is clearly not on the same page as Mufti. But make no mistake, if this gamble does lead to a structured dialogue between the separatists and the BJP, Modi won’t mind taking the credit for it.