Why an Indian Missile You Haven’t Heard of Has Pakistan Worried

Why is Pakistan crying hoarse over India’s new defensive missile?

If you haven’t heard of India’s latest supersonic missile, don’t blame yourself. Last week was a busy one. Between Assembly elections and new governments, the celebrations and sadness over the dreaded Board exam results and Dhoni’s last minute brilliance at the IPL, the successful testing of an indigenous interceptor missile slipped through the cracks.

Across the border though, the defensive missile is creating headlines in Pakistan, eliciting reactions from the highest echelons of their government. So what is this missile anyway? And why does it have our neighbour so worried?

Could a Defensive Advantage Upset the Regional Balance of Power?

India has a “no first use” policy when it comes to nuclear weapons and our official policy is one of credible minimum deterrence. Simply put, we won’t fire a nuclear weapon unless we are attacked by one and our nuclear arsenal will only be large enough to discourage potential attacks. On 15 May, India launched Ashvin Advanced Defense interceptor missile from a mobile launcher on APJ Abdul Kalam (formerly Wheeler) Island. The supersonic missile can neutralise incoming ballistic missiles, including those with a nuclear payload. The Ashvini missile is an important step in building India’s anti-ballistic nuclear defence shield, which can protect us from most air-borne missiles.

Clearly, the interceptor missile is not an offensive weapon. In Pakistan though, the reaction to the successful missile test was swift and sharp. Pakistan Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz has said that he will raise the “issue” in international forums.

We are concerned over the fact that due to these tests by India the balance of power in the region is being disturbed... Pakistan will raise its voice at the international level against these developments.

Both The Dawn and Express Tribune, two of Pakistan’s leading English newspapers, ran the story prominently, carrying opinion pieces which claimed that the defensive shield will lead to a new arms race. An op-ed by Muhammad Ali Ehsan in Express Tribune even conjectures on how Pakistan can increase its offensive capabilities with assistance from China.

An Excuse For the Pakistan Establishment?

Is Pakistan overreacting? After all, a missile shield does involve deployment of military hardware and nullifies the offensive capabilities of the opponent’s armed forces. Among nuclear rivals, mutually assured destruction is what provides a balance of power. The ability to protect our major cities by intercepting any nuclear attack, give us an advantage over our neighbours, perhaps forcing them to try and catch up. That’s the definition of an arms race.

But really, given that India has agreed to no first use and Pakistan has not, a defensive shield is something we need. More importantly, when and how the missile test will translate into a genuine tactical advantage remains to be seen. The interceptor missile has been through a dozen failed attempts before this successful one. Pakistan’s paranoia may have more to do with its own agenda than genuine security concerns.

The interceptor missile is a defensive weapon. Pakistan is making an issue of it because, if successful, it will blunt their nuclear arsenal. Crying hoarse about this will give them an excuse to bolster their own arsenal. Even now, India’s nuclear triad means there isn’t a stalemate when it comes to nuclear weapons. Pakistan is heavily dependent on China for their arsenal.

Nitin Gokhale, Security Analyst

In recent times, India’s growing friendship with the US, coupled with its distance from Pakistan, has been worrying the establishment across the border. By raking up a non-issue, they may well be hoping to gain sympathy and build a case in the international arena for a military build-up.