ISIS attacks in Dhaka have strong political and security implications for India.
So far, India has rejoiced in the fact that despite having the world’s second-largest Muslim population, not more than 25 Indians have joined ISIS in Syria as foreign fighters.
This is indeed a matter of great pride in deep-rooted traditions of liberal Sufi Islam in India and the secular-liberal ethos of Indian society and polity, but in the euphoria, somewhere Indians have missed the realistic aspects of the issue.
The reasons for Indians not joining ISIS in Syria are myriad. The geographical distance, strict surveillance and counter-terrorism measures of Ajit Doval and his team, and a disconnect with the socio-political milieu of Middle East have been the major factors that have prevented Indian Muslims from joining ISIS en masse.
Additionally, and very importantly, Indian Muslim fighters were not treated at par by the Arab fighters, and they were made to do menial jobs like cleaning toilets.
Reasons Behind ISIS’ Popularity In South Asia
The advent of ISIS in South Asia should not be a surprise for us. It was in the offing for quite some time.
The roots of the Mujahideen fascination with India can be traced to Ghazwa-I-Hind, a Quranic prophecy that India will be conquered by Islamic forces forever. This thought has dominated myriad schools of political Islam for centuries.
ISIS also believes in this idea of Ghazwa-i-Hind. Further, in the 19th century, Syed Ahmad Barelvi (1831) launched a strong Wahhabi revolt in NWFP, i.e today’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where he died fighting the British.
Given the fact that South Asia had its rendezvous with Wahhabism in the past, I would like to argue that this foreign ideology still has a fertile ground and it has the potential to attract a huge following in a very short span of time.
Turf War Between Al-Qaeda and ISIS
A month ago, geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor reported that ISIS was trying to find a niche in Bangladesh.
As per its reports, there has been a turf war going on between AQIS (Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent) and ISIS, where ISIS wants to wean away the local Jihadi organisations like Jamat- ul-Mujahidin and Jamat-i-Islami from Al-Qaeda.
Of late, many cadres had begun shifting loyalties towards ISIS. However, it was looking for some high profile target like airports or diplomatic zones in order to establish itself and finally, ISIS did manage to launch a brutal attack on a café in the diplomatic area.
Bruce Hoffman writing for Foreign Affairs has suggested that there is a strong possibility of a merger between Al-Qaeda and ISIS at a global level by 2021. In South Asia, this merger can come much earlier, given the diffused organisational nature of Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
If this happens, the jihadi forces will mount a major threat to peace and stability in India.
A Sleeping Threat?
ISIS will penetrate India through Assam, Bihar, and West Bengal. Intelligence sources have revealed that Jihadi sleeper cells have sprung up in West Bengal.
Bangladeshi refugees spread across India could generate a “terrorist diaspora” in India, which might help the Jihadis in logistics, shelter, and other requirements to establish sleeper cells.
Although most of the ISIS sympathisers have been arrested by NIA from Hyderabad, in the long run, the eastern route (West Bengal-Assam-Bihar) will be much more feasible and effective for ISIS to establish itself in India because of the facility of easy entry in the form of refugees.
A Jihadi-Maoist Partnership?
There is also a possibility of Bangladesh and West Bengal-based Jihadis joining hands with Maoists in the red corridor to destabilise India.
Stratfor briefs had earlier indicated the nexus between ISI, ULFA (Assam) and Maoists, and reported that Maoists were getting help from ISI in the form of weapons and money.
Besides this, they have also reported that 10,000 ISIS fighters have established themselves in Nangarhar in Jalalabad (Afghanistan) and many local Taliban fighters are joining them.
The ISI might use the cover of ISIS and Al-Qaeda in planning and executing terrorist activities in India, as it will not bring any global defamation. Given the fact that ISI’s links with Lashkar and Jaish are known to the international community, it will be much easier, politically convenient and feasible to use the cover of ISIS to execute such attacks in India.
Another worrying trend in India is the fast-spreading extremist Deobandi and Wahhabi ideology, teaching puritanical and literalist Islam which urges Muslims not to worship Sufi saints, tombs and strictly adhere to dress codes, like the Burqa.
Between 2011 and 2013, Rs 1700 crore was transferred to India for Wahhabi charities. Recently, in Delhi, it was reported by Stratfor that there are about 140 Maulvis on the payrolls of the Saudi embassy.
In Kerala, Wahhabis are controlling the management of 75 mosques. In the other states also, they are adopting the same strategy of capturing the management and control of the mosques.
In my informal conversation with state intelligence officers, I have come to know of violent clashes between Deobandi/Wahabbis and Berelvis (an Indian variant of Sufi Islam which is comparatively liberal).
ISIS and Al-Qaeda can make excellent use of the said congenial factors, both domestic and foreign. Our law enforcement machinery and more importantly, our intelligence corps, must get into gear to take specialised measures to counter such destabilising forces.
Along the lines of the NYPD, HUMINT (Human Intelligence) must be increased in sensitive areas in order to find out the trends of radicalisation and preempt potential terrorists.
In fact, a National Radicalisation Index must be developed, which should measure the radicalisation levels on the basis of indicators like online access to Jihadi materials, visits, and sermons of Wahhabi and Deobandi religious scholars, changes in dress patterns, behavioural attitudes, foreign tours to the Middle East and Pakistan, etc.
Better surveillance on the Indo-Bangladesh border is definitely a must, apart from proactive efforts to bust sleeper cells.
To conclude, I would emphasise that the fight against ISIS is primarily a fight against Wahhabi/Salafi ideology, an ideology rooted in extremist violence.
Hence, counter-terrorism measures will have to strengthen liberal variants of Islam like the Sufi/Barelvi schools.
Rather than stereotyping the entire Muslim community, we will need to strengthen the moderates and reformers in Islam.
Nuanced intellectual discourse in religious seminaries, public forums, and universities will be the strongest weapon in the fight against Islamic terrorism.
(The writer is Project Consultant, ILO, Delhi. He can be reached at@abhinavpandya)
(This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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