India-China Power Struggle in the Indian Ocean Region Continues

The regular movement of Chinese vessels continues to provide Beijing with crucial information about India.

Geopolitical tensions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) continue to simmer.

Last week, three Chinese warships (Hefei, Wuzhishan, and Qilianshan) and one Indian warship (INS Mumbai), which is a guided missile destroyer, simultaneously docked at the Port of Colombo. Reportedly, while there were 410 people aboard the Indian ship, the Chinese strength was around 1500. The ships departed from the port on 29 August.

The regular docking of Chinese ships and submarines at Sri Lankan ports has become a cause of concern for New Delhi. India had expressed its dissatisfaction regarding the same to the Sri Lankan government. The latter had, thus, decided to disallow Chinese ships to use Sri Lankan ports.

However, in a recent statement, the Sri Lankan government announced that from 2025 it will be ending the restrictions it imposed on Chinese "research vessels," stating that it won't single out Chinese vessels.

The Chinese media claims that the Indian media while reporting about the developments, is hyping the China threat. An article in the Global Times quoted Qian Feng, director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University.

Qian argued that “it is evident from the hype in the Indian media that there is always a group in India who are over-sensitive to China’s normal exchanges with Sri Lanka, even if it’s just a simple warship stopover. This argument reflects an unhealthy mindset among some Indians, who consistently view China’s maritime cooperation with Indian Ocean nations as a threat – an extension of the 'China threat' theory at its core.”

The challenge is that these docking instances are situated within the increasing Chinese influence over the Sri Lankan government and its foreign policy-making process. Sri Lanka is an important country in the Indian Ocean Region and Beijing has been keen to make inroads. As of 2023, the Sri Lankan external debt stood at 47 billion dollars, of which 52 percent was owed to Beijing.

The fact that Sri Lanka leased out the Hambantota port to China for 99 years further adds to Indian worries. Under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has invested heavily in Sri Lanka and undertaken construction of infrastructure and connectivity projects. Such developments have further pushed Colombo into a debt trap, thus reducing its space to manoeuvre.

This coupled with the weakened economy only makes matters difficult for Colombo. The outbreak of the pandemic, Chinese debt, the breakdown of the tourism sector, and the reduction of foreign reserves pushed the Sri Lankan economy to a breaking point. Tourism is an important sector for Sri Lanka and the sector is heavily dependent on Chinese tourists. As per reports, Sri Lanka is hopeful to receive around one million tourists from China by 2025.

So, the movement of ships and submarines is a logical step undertaken by Beijing to show its strong position vis-à-vis Sri Lanka, and by extension, the Indian Ocean region. This act also challenges New Delhi’s idea of the Indian Ocean being its natural sphere of influence. The regular movement of Chinese ships and submarines under the guise of "research gathering" continues to provide Beijing with crucial information about India and the region.

Beijing today has access to major ports and airports from which it can gather information and tactical knowledge regarding the Indian navy. With countries like Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan providing free and easy access to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), the challenges for New Delhi and the Indian Navy continue to mount.

The Chinese media has been parroting a narrative of India being the bully in the IOR while Beijing is the benign power focused on helping the smaller nations. As per the China Daily, “Those in New Delhi who view the Indian Ocean as India's sphere of influence should be reminded that a public square outside of one's door is not private property even if it bears one's name.”

Qian, in another article in the Global Times, argued, “When India's mind is so occupied by confrontation rather than common development when it cares only about its own hegemonic interests instead of the interests and needs of other countries, India is simply going toward the completely opposite direction to reach great power status and leader of Global South”.

The narrative that China is pushing is that the main issue lies with India and its ambitions to arm-twist the smaller countries in the region. For Beijing, the BRI and the investments are all part of the "benevolent power" narrative.

(Dr Gunjan Singh is an Associate Professor at Jindal Law School, OP Jindal Global University. Her research interests are in the fields of Chinese Foreign Policy, China-South Asia Relations, Domestic Politics in China, Chinese Media, Mainland-Taiwan Relations and Space Security. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)