The corridors of power in Lutyens' Delhi are expected to keep a close watch on the US presidential election taking place on 5 November.
While the Indian government has consistently maintained its willingness to deal with either of the candidates, the victory of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will present India with different sets of benefits and challenges.
One of the supposed upsides of a Trump win for the Narendra Modi government is familiarity, having dealt with his administration closely in the past. The bonhomie between the two leaders has also been publicly evident: for instance, the events they appeared in together, namely the 2019 'Howdy Modi' event in Houston and 'Namaste Trump' in Ahmedabad the following year.
However, this does not mean that a second Trump presidency will entail "business as usual" since several crucial geopolitical challenges have changed the contours of economic and geographical security, including regional instability in Europe and West Asia.
In this article, we look at three specific aspects of India-US ties that could be impacted if Trump returns to the White House.
Economic Ties
One of the areas expected to be severely impacted is the economic relationship between India and the US.
In September this year, close on the heels of PM Modi's visit to the US, Trump had called India a "very big abuser" of import tariffs, arguing that New Delhi imposes one of the highest tariff rates in the world.
"India... is a very big abuser. These people are the sharpest people. They’re not a little bit backwards. You know the expression, they’re at the top of their game, and they use it against us."Donald Trump at a town hall in Michigan
This wasn't the first time that the Republican juggernaut has criticised the Modi government over trade policies. In April 2019, while he was still in office, Trump called India a "tariff king" and said that the Indian government imposed 100 percent tariffs on certain products, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
To counter the tariffs, Trump has said that he would impose a reciprocal tax of 20 percent on India and other countries imposing high tariff rates, and a tax of 60 percent on Chinese imports to the US, if he comes to power following the 2024 election.
But why are differences over trade such a big deal for the US? The US is the only country among India's top 10 trading partners which has a trade deficit with India. For the financial year 2023-24, Washington recorded a huge trade deficit of $36.74 billion with New Delhi.
"The trade issue would loom large if Trump returns to the presidency," Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, told The Quint.
Kugelman adds that the issue is not due to differences over the India-US economic partnership per se, which have continued under the Joe Biden administration in a similar fashion as well, but the modus operandi employed to deal with these differences.
"While trade tensions between India and the US have not gone away over the years, what we have seen in the Biden years is that there have been efforts to set up dialogues to work out trade disagreements. I’m not sure if the Trump administration would be interested in engaging in a similar dialogue. Instead, they will just aim to plough through the issues."Michael Kugelman
In Trump's first term as well, India was removed from the US' Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) – which accords preferential market access to US markets for a group of close trading partners. The reason given for doing so was that India had not provided the US "equitable and reasonable access" to its own markets.
"In his first term, Trump showed that he has limited understanding of both economics and commerce," says Sumit Ganguly, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.
"This could cause chaos in the relationship and could be terribly adverse for the American consumer."Sumit Ganguly
Human Rights
The second facet that could change under a second Trump presidency is how the US addresses issues pertaining to India's human rights record.
Over the last few years, several US-based rights groups as well as individuals subscribing to the left wing of the Democratic Party, such as Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, had criticised the Modi government over issues like alleged human rights abuses, stifling of the press, and communal discord.
The critics of the Modi government became further emboldened following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's charge of Indian government officials being involved in the murder of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey in 2023, and allegations by the US Department of Justice of an India-sponsored assassination plot against Sikhs for Justice leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York last year.
Going by conventional wisdom, a potential Trump administration is expected not to attach much significance to human rights issues and allegations of extrajudicial killings by India if elected.
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"On a positive note for the Modi government, India won’t get any grief from Trump regarding human rights and democratic backsliding," argues Ganguly.
"If he doesn't care about these issues at home, why will he care about them abroad?"
Harris, on the other hand, might be forced to relent under pressure from the Democratic Party's left wing to call out India over the issue of human rights.
Some experts, however, suggest that the assumption of Trump's non-attachment of any importance to allegations of extrajudicial killings is not as evident as it may seem.
"New Delhi hopes that Trump won’t make much of an issue when it comes to allegations of extrajudicial killings. I don’t agree with that," Kugelman asserted to The Quint.
"Going by Trump’s politics, and seeing as he projects himself as a bold, robust nationalist, he cannot politically afford to remain quiet about a case of alleged transnational repression on US soil. While Trump won’t be as public as the Canadian government when it comes to allegations against India, we can’t rule out that Trump won’t be front and center when it comes to allegations of extrajudicial killings in the US."Michael Kugelman
On the other hand, contrary to his party's advocation of values-based democracy, the Biden administration has not called India out or publicly taken up the alleged assassination plot against Pannun so far. Instead, he has let the Department of Justice do most of the talking through its periodical release of indictments containing evidence against the Indian government.
Immigration
Yet another issue that could impact India-US ties following a potential Trump win is immigration.
While the Republican leader has always maintained a tough stance on the influx of immigrants into the US, the fears of immigrant communities, including the 5.4 million-strong Indian American community, have been sparked further due to Trump's recent immigration policy promises.
If elected to power, Trump has vowed to carry out what he called the "largest deportation" operation in US history targeted specifically at undocumented immigrants.
Further, he said that his plans include a review of ending birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants – thus causing concern for several diaspora groups.
Trump also criticised the Biden administration for opening a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants – specifically those who came into the country illegally and are married to US citizens – to obtain green cards and eventually get citizenship after a certain number of years.
According to the Pew Research Center, Indians make up the third-largest group of undocumented immigrants in the US, with over 725,000 of them in the country as per 2021 data.
According to the US' Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), there has been an unprecedented increase of illegal immigrants from India into the US over the last few years.
For instance, in 2023, the US Border Police encountered around 97,000 undocumented Indian immigrants trying to enter the US illegally. This trend has also continued in recent months. From October 2023 to February 2024, authorities encountered around 14,000 undocumented Indians at the US-Canada border.
Meanwhile, softening his stance towards foreign students in US colleges as compared to his first term in office, Trump has assured them of automatic green cards once they graduate in a bid to prevent them from returning to their home countries "where they become multibillionaires".
A green card grants a person permanent residency in the US. Green cardholders are permitted to live and work in the US for as long as they want and can become naturalised citizens after a certain period of time.
"What I want to do and what I will do is... you graduate from a college, I think you should get a green card automatically as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country. And that includes junior colleges too," Trump had said during a podcast in June this year.
Seeing as Indians make up the largest group of international students in the US, this could have a huge impact on their professional careers and could encourage even more Indians to opt for the US as an academic destination.
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How Will a Second Trump Presidency Alter Global Politics?
One of the few areas where bipartisan consensus can be expected is the US' approach to China, and the country's requirement for India to act as a bulwark against Beijing's rising economic and geographical influence.
The deterioration of India-China ties following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash became a driving force to inculcate even closer relations between New Delhi and Washington in a bid to counter China. Hence, one may argue that now that India and China have completed the disengagement process in Demchok and Depsang in a recent landmark agreement, the ties between New Delhi and Beijing can continue as they were before 2020 – devoid of US influence altogether.
However, this seems to be a far-fetched assumption as there still remains a great degree of mistrust between the Modi and Xi Jinping governments.
"Everything lines up towards a strategic partnership between India and the US to counter China, no matter who wins the 2024 election. Despite the recent border deal between India and China, there won't be any major breakthrough between New Delhi and Beijing whereby the Modi government suddenly won't be willing to work with the US to counter China," Kugelman said.
Meanwhile, while there is bipartisan consensus when it comes to China, Harris and Trump differ to a considerable extent when it comes to their views on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars.
Ever since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Trump has been critical of the US' funding of Kyiv's military capabilities to push back against Moscow's offensives. According to the US Department of Defence, the Biden government has committed $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the war began.
On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly called for an end to the war and threatened to cut funding to Ukraine, thus giving Russia the upper hand.
At a campaign rally in Detroit in June, Trump had sarcastically called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the "greatest salesman of all time" for his efforts to secure US funding against Russia's invasion even after almost three years since the war began.
"I believe that Trump will send Ukraine down the river. He will say that we have sent Ukraine enough money, and now it’s time to fend for themselves," Ganguly told The Quint.
On the other hand, Harris, if elected, is expected to go down the Biden route to shore up support for Ukraine. Earlier this year, the vice-president had announced an additional aid package of $1.5 billion to Kyiv, focused mostly on the country's energy sector and humanitarian assistance.
Just like the Russia-Ukraine war, the views of both Trump and Harris differ when it comes to the Israel-Hamas war.
While Harris has supported Israel's right to defend itself against attacks, she has been critical of the killings in the Gaza Strip, particularly the high toll of collateral damage victims.
At a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this year, Harris said that she "will not be silent" about the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Thus, Harris is likely to take a relatively more restrained approach towards Israel in terms of US support.
Trump, on the other hand, has vowed to stand with Israel "steadfastly", calling himself a "protector" of Israelis. In policy terms, this largely means giving the Netanyahu government a free hand in its military campaign against Palestine.
"Trump has repeatedly said that Israel needs to finish the job – which could suggest that he wants Israel to escalate to finish the war or at least start thinking about an endgame," Kugelman concluded.
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