With just hours left before voting begins in the 2024 US presidential election, a new survey has revealed that fewer Indian Americans are set to vote for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris compared to the overwhelming support that incumbent president Joe Biden received from the community in the 2020 polls.
The Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS), conducted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has found that while the majority of Indian Americans remain loyal to the Democratic Party, there has been a relative increase in the numbers of those who plan to vote Republican. This despite the fact that Harris, who is of Indian origin, is on the Democratic ticket.
But before getting into the key findings of the survey, let us take a look at just how significant the Indian American vote is in the 5 November election.
Indian American Votes in Swing States
The 5.2 million-strong Indian American community is the second largest diaspora group in the US just behind Mexicans and make up around 2 percent of the country's population. Of these, 2.6 million are eligible to vote in the upcoming election.
Their votes are the most crucial in swing states – Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada – where Harris and Trump are separated by only 2 percentage points, which is well within the margin of error.
Hence, the result of the election may depend on just a few thousand votes in these battleground states, where Indian Americans could play a significant role. South Asians (consisting of Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nepalis, and Sri Lankans) have a population of over 700,000 in the seven swing states, as per the Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote. Of these, 350,000-450,000 are eligible to vote.
Indians are the largest South Asian community in Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In fact, there are over 150,000 Indian Americans in Georgia and Pennsylvania – which is far higher than the margin by which President Biden won both the states in the last election.
Fewer Indian American Takers for a Harris Presidency
According to the Carnegie survey, 47 percent of Indian American respondents said that they identified with the Democratic Party, down from 56 percent in 2020. On the other hand, Republican identifiers increased from 15 to 21 percent, and independents from 22 to 26 percent.
However, the independents that lean Democratic were found to be 57 percent, and those who lean Republican were 27 percent. On the basis of this data, the share of Democrats has fallen to 57 percent in 2024 as compared to 66 percent in the last election, and that of Republicans has increased to 27 percent from 18 percent.
Secondly, 60 percent of Indian Americans said that they planned to vote for Harris, down from 68 percent for Joe Biden in 2020. On the other hand, 31 percent said that they would vote for Trump in 2024, up by nine points as compared to the last election.
What explains the shift of support among Indian Americans?
According to the IAAS, the support of Indian Americans towards Democrats over the years has largely been due to the perceived intolerance of Republicans towards minorities. On the other hand, those who vote Republican do so because of the Democrats' handling of the economy and their alleged inability to control illegal immigration. Further, Republican voters feel that Democrats are too "left-wing" and focused on "identity politics" as their primary source of support.
While the IAAS in 2020 did not find any stark difference in voting intentions among men and women, this time a significant gap has emerged. The survey reveals that 67 percent of Indian American women would vote for Harris and 22 percent for Trump. The same figures for Indian American men were 53 percent for Harris and 39 percent for Trump.
One of the reasons attributed for this gap has been differences in issues considered to be a priority among male and female voters. While more women supported Harris due to her stance on abortion rights, for men issues such as having a secure border and a liberal tax regime were more important.
Also, Harris' Indian ethnicity did not have much of an impact on swaying Indian American voters. A large number of them feel that Harris has attached more significance to her black ethnicity rather than her Indian heritage. The IAAS revealed that for around 12 percent of respondents, that was their main reason for opposing her presidency.
Yet another reason for the shift in support is Israel's war in Gaza, which has claimed over 40,000 lives so far, and President Biden's economic and military support to Tel Aviv.
Despite Trump's history of spewing anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, he was seen to be rising in support among Muslims in Michigan, a key battleground state. This came amid his visit to Michigan's Dearborn – which is majority Arab – on 1 November, making him the first major Republican nominee to visit the city on the campaign trail.
Several traditional Democrat-supporting Indians in Michigan also said that they will vote Republican for the first time in the 2024 polls.
"Harris never associated herself with the (Indian) community. Harris would not be good for the India-US relationship. On the other hand, Trump has been good to Hindu Americans. He has a very good relationship with (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi," Michigan businessman Ashok Baddi was quoted as saying by PTI.
Sunny Reddy, another Indian American, said, "It's a close fight. A large section of Indian Americans has moved towards Trump."
Hindu Groups Rally Behind Trump
Meanwhile, several Hindu groups in the US have endorsed Trump for the presidency, including Hindus for America First and the Georgia chapter of the American Hindu Coalition. This comes amid the former president's assurances to safeguard the rights of Hindus globally.
In his Diwali greetings in the past week, Trump condemned the violence against Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh and said that such incidents will not take place if he returns to the White House.
“It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own Southern Border, but we will Make America Strong Again and bring back Peace through Strength,” he took to X to say.
He also vowed to "strengthen" the India-US partnership with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
"We also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi," Trump said.
Utsav Sanduja, founder of Hindus for America First, said that Trump's remarks regarding the protection of Hindu rights were bound to make a big difference in the polls.
"I'm very grateful to President Trump, eternally grateful and eternally appreciative. It sucks that Kamala Harris hasn't said anything about this issue. I think that there's going to be a big change in this election coming from this,” Sanduja said while speaking to PTI.
On the other hand, a prominent organisation called Indian American Impact (IAI) endorsed Harris for the presidency and launched a campaign in support of her called 'Kamala Ke Saath'.
"We have definitely seen in polling and focus groups that there has been renewed enthusiasm for Harris. We've had lots of first-time donors and volunteers. People are really fired up to support her," IAI's campaign engagement director Sarah Shah had said while speaking to The Quint earlier.
Several Indian Americans had also enrolled as volunteers in the Harris campaign following Biden's decision to withdraw his candidature.
"Mrs Harris believes in the ideals that I, too, stand by – such as unity and bestowing honour on people of all cultures and ethnicities," said Texas resident Geeta Das, who has been conducting postcard parties and raising issues in her neighbourhood that she believes are pivotal in this year's election.
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