What would possess the citizens of a country to take the current US President’s bluster at face value? Have we not borne witness to the multiple, frequent, unabashed policy backflips in the one year he’s been in power? That didn’t stop Indians schadenfreuding all over social media and the op-ed pages though, all because of this one tweet:
While his words no doubt came as vindication of everything India has been accusing Pakistan of for the past forever, here’s a crucial thing to remember: Words mean next to nothing to President Donald Trump.
Trump’s Backflips, Flip-Flops & General Acrobatics
You don’t need to look far into his presidency for the Olympic-level backflips. Remember “drain the swamp”?
That was a backflip, if you consider stacking the Cabinet since his election with Wall Street lobbyists in the realm of ‘swampy’ behaviour.
And “lock her up”? Remember those full-throated chants at his election rallies?
Well, Hillary Clinton is still roaming wild and free.
The Don even admitted at one of these rallies to his cheering crowds that chants like ‘drain the swamp’ were just political slogans that sounded good at the time. The quote, reported by Fortune, is truly something:
Funny how that term caught on, isn’t it? I tell everyone, I hated it. Somebody said ‘drain the swamp’ and I said, “Oh, that is so hokey. That is so terrible.” I said, “All right, I’ll try it.” So like a month ago, I said ‘drain the swamp’ and the place went crazy. And I said “Whoa, what’s this?” Then I said it again. And then I started saying it like I meant it, right? And then I started to love it, and the place loved it. Drain the swamp. It’s true. It’s true. Drain the swamp.Donald Trump at a Des Moines rally (emphasis added)
This acrobatic flexibility with the truth extends to the foreign policy sphere too.
- Remember the collective European heartburn when potential future US President went around saying that NATO was “obsolete”? Months after becoming President, he said, “I said it was obsolete... it’s no longer obsolete.”
- Remember his campaign promises to designate China a ‘currency manipulator’ on his first day in officer? Remember the heated bluster about China ‘raping’ the US economy? Well, after Trump’s first meeting with China’s Jinping on 6 April, he was striking a markedly different tone. After the short meeting, Trump said he was dropping plans to name China a ‘currency manipulator’.
- And what about the blasting Trump gave China for failing to keep North Korea’s nuclear ambitions in check? After that 6 April meeting, Trump the tiger became a pussycat:
After listening for 10 minutes, I realised it’s not so easy. I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power [over] North Korea [...] But it’s not what you would think.Donald Trump to the Wall Street Journal
And later in June:
- And that phone call with Taiwan’s leader upon his election victory, in a break with longstanding policy that did not recognise Taiwan as an independent nation to avoid upsetting China? Well, scarcely a week later, there Trump was in a meeting with Jinping, promising to commit to the ‘One China’ policy of treating Taiwan like a wayward Chinese province again.
- His promise to “tear up” the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran? Well, that’s still going, and he has already passed up chances to tear it up the way he promised.
In all of these cases, it’s clear that his aggression is more a tactic of negotiation than a policy promise. Which means that his tweet about Pakistan, much like his high-decibel threats against China while he was campaigning, can be taken with a spoonful of salt.
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But Could This Be the Last Straw for the US? Don’t Bet On It
It’s been no secret that Pakistan has been playing the US for as long as they’ve had a geopolitical relationship. The US administration itself has known this for decades. In an interview to CBS’ 60 Minutes back in 2006, former Pakistan president Musharraf said that a senior US official had threatened to “bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age” if it didn’t cooperate in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks and break its ties with the Taliban.
Jinnah, Pakistan’s founding father, was acutely aware of the unique leverage Pakistan held over the world’s only superpower. Margaret Bourke-White recounted a conversation with Jinnah in her book Halfway to Freedom: A Report on the New India:
“America needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs America,” was Jinnah’s reply. “Pakistan is the pivot of the world, as we are placed” – he revolved his long forefinger in bony circles – “the frontier on which the future position of the world revolves.” He leaned toward me, dropping his voice to a confidential note. “Russia,” confided Mr Jinnah, “is not so very far away.Excerpt
Now, Russia is no longer the competitor it once was... but there’s another enthusiastic suitor vying for Pakistan’s hand – China. After Trump’s caustic tweet and US’ UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s announcement to withhold $255 million in military aid, China leapt to Pakistan’s defence – not the first time it has backed Pakistan in the face of international condemnation.
Pakistan has made enormous efforts and sacrifice for the fight against terrorism and has made very outstanding contributions to the global cause of counterterrorism. The international community should acknowledge that.Geng Shuang, Spokesperson, Chinese Foreign Ministry
Nor is this the first time that the US has sought to punish Pakistan by withholding payments. In July this year, the Pentagon withheld $50 million in disbursements to Pakistan for failing to act against the Haqqani network, and in 2016, it withheld $300 million.
The divergence of the US’ and Pakistan’s interests is part of a decades-long trend, that will only play out over time. But is the US now willing to just hand Pakistan over on a plate to an all-too-eager China? That doesn’t seem likely. The US still needs its supply lines into Afghanistan open to keep up its presence there, and it needs Pakistan to keep them that way. It also needs Pakistan’s help in counter-terrorism, the little it is willing to give.
The US ceding Pakistan to China would mean handing its expansionist geopolitical rival a strategic win in a region of crucial importance to its own interests – and as isolationist as the Trump administration may be, a tweet and another round of withheld aid doesn’t a policy shift make.
(With inputs from PTI and Reuters)
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