In a year dominated by elections around the world, one of the most closely watched will be the Taiwan election on Saturday, 13 January, at a time where the results of polls in the island nation will set the tone for geo-politics in 2024.
For over three decades, Taiwan has operated as a self-governing democracy, emerging from a history dominated by military rule. Despite being recognised as a sovereign nation by just 13 countries, its citizens hold dear this relatively young democracy.
Even though the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hasn't governed Taiwan, it asserts the island as part of the People’s Republic of China and hasn't dismissed the possibility of using force to accomplish what it considers "reunification."
The incoming president will significantly influence relations with both Beijing and Washington, and Taiwan stands as a flashpoint in their power struggle within the region, and across the globe.
All three candidates have ramped up their efforts with street rallies and enhanced social media exercises, with the latest permissible opinion polls prior to the vote indicating that the China-cautious incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Vice-President William Lai, maintains a slight edge over the more inclined-to-Beijing Nationalists (KMT). The emerging centrist Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is currently positioned in third place.
Who are the candidates? What is at stake? And what about the Chinese question? The Quint answers.
Taiwan Election 2024: Who’s Contesting, What’s at Stake, And Who’s Watching?
1. Meet the Three Candidates
Lai Ching-te, the frontrunner representing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), steps into the presidential race as the incumbent vice president succeeding Tsai Ing-wen, who will retire at the represent the continuity of her tenure since she is ineligible for reelection due to term limits.
Lai, alongside his running mate, former Taiwanese envoy to the United States Hsiao Bi-Khim, represents the continuity choice.
With a background in medicine and a long tenure within the DPP, Lai initially gained recognition for his outspoken advocacy of Taiwan's independence. However, his stance has gradually shifted towards supporting the island's "status quo," signaling a de facto independence.
Hsiao's selection as Lai's running mate significantly boosted his appeal, especially among younger voters. The DPP’s Lai has remained a strong advocate for Taiwan's independence and has maintained close ties with Washington. The presence of a former envoy to the US as Lai’s running mate is only a sign to the DPP’s aim to further strengthen ties with the US.
On the opposing front stands Hou You-yi, the main candidate from the more conservative Kuomintang (KMT). Hou, a former police officer and renowned mayor of New Taipei City, brings a working-class background, an attempt by the KMT to bridge the gap between its older and younger supporters.
Hou's presidential bid is paired with Jaw Shaw-kong, a media figure and firm advocate for China-Taiwan unification under a different government than the CCP. Jaw's inclusion as the vice-presidential candidate has garnered attention, occasionally overshadowing Hou's campaign, according to some reports.
Hou's platform emphasises augmenting economic ties and initiating dialogue with China as a means to maintain peace. However, his hardline rejection of Taiwan's independence and the "one country, two systems" model proposed by the Chinese Communist Party leaves ambiguity regarding his stance on China.
Disrupting the established candidates is Ko Wen-je from the newly formed Taiwan People's Party (TPP). A former popular Taipei mayor and a surgeon turned politician, Ko promotes himself as a technocrat, leveraging his scientific background for governance.
Ko's TPP, initially positioned against the KMT, has shown a recent alignment with the party during this election cycle. Despite aiming for a "middle way" between the DPP and the KMT on China-related policies, Ko's strategies mirror closer alignment with the KMT, contradicting his initial claims.
Billionaire Terry Gou, the Foxconn founder, briefly ran as an independent candidate but withdrew in November due to insufficient public support.
The inauguration of the next president is slated for May 2024.
Expand2. A Peculiar Voting Process
Taiwanese citizens will vote thrice on 13 January:
Firstly to elect the president and vice president.
Second, to select local legislators.
Third, to indicate their preference for a "party list" comprising legislators-at-large, allocated based on party vote proportions.
In the presidential election, a simple majority secures victory, with no requirement for a runoff.
For the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament, voters possess two ballots—one for their local district candidate and the other for a party. The Legislative Yuan comprises 113 members: 73 from geographic constituencies, 34 from party lists, and six reserved for Indigenous Taiwanese representatives, all serving four-year terms.
The allocation of 34 "at large" seats is proportional to party votes. For a party to secure seats in the Legislative Yuan, it must garner at least 5 percent of the total party votes. The list holds significant weight, serving as a measure of a party's popularity.
Polling stations will be open from 8 am (5:30 am IST) to 4 pm (1:30 pm IST) and approximately 19.5 million registered voters are expected to vote, with results are anticipated by the end of day.
Expand3. The China Question
It’s hard to even mention Taiwan’s election without discussing China.
Even though the threat of a Chinese invasion has loomed for decades, tensions have escalated over the last few years, marked by intensified military exercises and statements from Chinese officials who have stated that military options will be a last resort that Beijing may undertake as a last resort, if peaceful reunification is not possible.
China's CCP government, which considers Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) a breakaway province, views the DPP as hurdle and has made its desire to see the party out of power plenty evident.
Why?
Because the DPP's strategy centers on reinforcing Taiwan's peaceful status quo by fostering stronger global alliances, particularly with the US. Lai does have his fair share of shortcomings in Washington compared to Tsai or Hsiao, but the inclusion of a former Taiwanese envoy to US as Lai’s running mate, despite her facing Chinese sanctions, aims to smoothen ties with Washington.
Lai remains openly disliked by the Chinese government, earning him the label of a "complete troublemaker."
During her two terms, President Tsai Ing-wen prioritised modernising Taiwan's military and elevating its global presence as a supporter of democracy, and the DPP's strategy to counter Taiwan's reliance on China included bolstering connections with the US and other regional entities, including initiatives in tourism.
Meanwhile, China and the KMT have positioned the vote as a choice between war and peace. The KMT’s Hou contends that supporting the DPP equates to leading Taiwan into a battlefield, suggesting it would provoke conflict with China.
The KMT also attributes Taiwan's sluggish economic growth to strained relations with Beijing, referring to missed business prospects in China and revenue from Chinese tourists— given that they are restricted from visiting as individuals from 2019 and in tour groups from 2020 due to Beijing's policies, even though Taiwan lifted restrictions from their end.
In his New Year's address, China's President, Xi Jinping, emphasized the "historical inevitability" of reunifying the motherland. The CCP aims to pursue this objective through political and economic coercion rather than direct military confrontation.
While a potential victory for Lai is not immediately expected to trigger military action from China, there's speculation that Beijing may not wait until the Presidential inauguration in May to initiate actions.
Analysts suggest that responses could include suspending the 2010 trade agreement, a recent point of contention. Additionally, there's an anticipation of heightened Chinese military exercises in the vicinity of the island as a potential reaction.
This tactic has been deployed twice in the past two years by Beijing, notably in response to significant events such as a historic visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022 and President Tsai's meetings with top US officials during her transit through the US in April 2022.
Expand4. Domestic Economic Concerns and More
After China, and probably the most important domestic factor in the presidential election in Taiwan is economic concerns.
Lai, the incumbent DPP candidate, pledges to continue the current administration's socio-economic policies. His National Project of Hope outlines commitments to technology, finance, communication, social justice, and promoting a healthy aging society, and prioritises sustainable development through initiatives like green energy implementation and net-zero emissions.
On the other hand, KMT's Hou highlighted the Tsai government's perceived shortcomings in fulfilling campaign promises since 2016 and advocates reforming elder care systems, including expanding free health insurance and instituting public-funded childcare for children up to six years old with increased benefits for childcare personnel.
Hou also introduced a prospective housing policy targeting young homebuyers to alleviate familial and youth burdens.
While socio-economic issues dominated discussions in the campaign, positions on most issues align relatively closely, except for the energy sector.
The DPP's push for a nuclear-free Taiwan and net-zero emissions by 2050 faces criticism from the opposition for being ‘overly idealistic.’ The KMT also raised concerns about electricity shortages due to the abolition of nuclear power and doubts about renewable energy sufficiency to meet energy demands.
But despite the economic focus, cross-strait issues remain contentious.
Lai's stance on Taiwan independence raises concerns among some Taiwanese voters, potentially impacting his electoral prospects.
While most of Taiwan's populous neither endorse unification nor independence, Lai's strong inclination towards Taiwan's independence might hinder his chances, given its stark difference when compared to previous presidents, who pushed to maintain the status quo.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)
Expand
Meet the Three Candidates
Lai Ching-te, the frontrunner representing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), steps into the presidential race as the incumbent vice president succeeding Tsai Ing-wen, who will retire at the represent the continuity of her tenure since she is ineligible for reelection due to term limits.
Lai, alongside his running mate, former Taiwanese envoy to the United States Hsiao Bi-Khim, represents the continuity choice.
With a background in medicine and a long tenure within the DPP, Lai initially gained recognition for his outspoken advocacy of Taiwan's independence. However, his stance has gradually shifted towards supporting the island's "status quo," signaling a de facto independence.
Hsiao's selection as Lai's running mate significantly boosted his appeal, especially among younger voters. The DPP’s Lai has remained a strong advocate for Taiwan's independence and has maintained close ties with Washington. The presence of a former envoy to the US as Lai’s running mate is only a sign to the DPP’s aim to further strengthen ties with the US.
On the opposing front stands Hou You-yi, the main candidate from the more conservative Kuomintang (KMT). Hou, a former police officer and renowned mayor of New Taipei City, brings a working-class background, an attempt by the KMT to bridge the gap between its older and younger supporters.
Hou's presidential bid is paired with Jaw Shaw-kong, a media figure and firm advocate for China-Taiwan unification under a different government than the CCP. Jaw's inclusion as the vice-presidential candidate has garnered attention, occasionally overshadowing Hou's campaign, according to some reports.
Hou's platform emphasises augmenting economic ties and initiating dialogue with China as a means to maintain peace. However, his hardline rejection of Taiwan's independence and the "one country, two systems" model proposed by the Chinese Communist Party leaves ambiguity regarding his stance on China.
Disrupting the established candidates is Ko Wen-je from the newly formed Taiwan People's Party (TPP). A former popular Taipei mayor and a surgeon turned politician, Ko promotes himself as a technocrat, leveraging his scientific background for governance.
Ko's TPP, initially positioned against the KMT, has shown a recent alignment with the party during this election cycle. Despite aiming for a "middle way" between the DPP and the KMT on China-related policies, Ko's strategies mirror closer alignment with the KMT, contradicting his initial claims.
Billionaire Terry Gou, the Foxconn founder, briefly ran as an independent candidate but withdrew in November due to insufficient public support.
The inauguration of the next president is slated for May 2024.
A Peculiar Voting Process
Taiwanese citizens will vote thrice on 13 January:
Firstly to elect the president and vice president.
Second, to select local legislators.
Third, to indicate their preference for a "party list" comprising legislators-at-large, allocated based on party vote proportions.
In the presidential election, a simple majority secures victory, with no requirement for a runoff.
For the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament, voters possess two ballots—one for their local district candidate and the other for a party. The Legislative Yuan comprises 113 members: 73 from geographic constituencies, 34 from party lists, and six reserved for Indigenous Taiwanese representatives, all serving four-year terms.
The allocation of 34 "at large" seats is proportional to party votes. For a party to secure seats in the Legislative Yuan, it must garner at least 5 percent of the total party votes. The list holds significant weight, serving as a measure of a party's popularity.
Polling stations will be open from 8 am (5:30 am IST) to 4 pm (1:30 pm IST) and approximately 19.5 million registered voters are expected to vote, with results are anticipated by the end of day.
The China Question
It’s hard to even mention Taiwan’s election without discussing China.
Even though the threat of a Chinese invasion has loomed for decades, tensions have escalated over the last few years, marked by intensified military exercises and statements from Chinese officials who have stated that military options will be a last resort that Beijing may undertake as a last resort, if peaceful reunification is not possible.
China's CCP government, which considers Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) a breakaway province, views the DPP as hurdle and has made its desire to see the party out of power plenty evident.
Why?
Because the DPP's strategy centers on reinforcing Taiwan's peaceful status quo by fostering stronger global alliances, particularly with the US. Lai does have his fair share of shortcomings in Washington compared to Tsai or Hsiao, but the inclusion of a former Taiwanese envoy to US as Lai’s running mate, despite her facing Chinese sanctions, aims to smoothen ties with Washington.
Lai remains openly disliked by the Chinese government, earning him the label of a "complete troublemaker."
During her two terms, President Tsai Ing-wen prioritised modernising Taiwan's military and elevating its global presence as a supporter of democracy, and the DPP's strategy to counter Taiwan's reliance on China included bolstering connections with the US and other regional entities, including initiatives in tourism.
Meanwhile, China and the KMT have positioned the vote as a choice between war and peace. The KMT’s Hou contends that supporting the DPP equates to leading Taiwan into a battlefield, suggesting it would provoke conflict with China.
The KMT also attributes Taiwan's sluggish economic growth to strained relations with Beijing, referring to missed business prospects in China and revenue from Chinese tourists— given that they are restricted from visiting as individuals from 2019 and in tour groups from 2020 due to Beijing's policies, even though Taiwan lifted restrictions from their end.
In his New Year's address, China's President, Xi Jinping, emphasized the "historical inevitability" of reunifying the motherland. The CCP aims to pursue this objective through political and economic coercion rather than direct military confrontation.
While a potential victory for Lai is not immediately expected to trigger military action from China, there's speculation that Beijing may not wait until the Presidential inauguration in May to initiate actions.
Analysts suggest that responses could include suspending the 2010 trade agreement, a recent point of contention. Additionally, there's an anticipation of heightened Chinese military exercises in the vicinity of the island as a potential reaction.
This tactic has been deployed twice in the past two years by Beijing, notably in response to significant events such as a historic visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022 and President Tsai's meetings with top US officials during her transit through the US in April 2022.
Domestic Economic Concerns and More
After China, and probably the most important domestic factor in the presidential election in Taiwan is economic concerns.
Lai, the incumbent DPP candidate, pledges to continue the current administration's socio-economic policies. His National Project of Hope outlines commitments to technology, finance, communication, social justice, and promoting a healthy aging society, and prioritises sustainable development through initiatives like green energy implementation and net-zero emissions.
On the other hand, KMT's Hou highlighted the Tsai government's perceived shortcomings in fulfilling campaign promises since 2016 and advocates reforming elder care systems, including expanding free health insurance and instituting public-funded childcare for children up to six years old with increased benefits for childcare personnel.
Hou also introduced a prospective housing policy targeting young homebuyers to alleviate familial and youth burdens.
While socio-economic issues dominated discussions in the campaign, positions on most issues align relatively closely, except for the energy sector.
The DPP's push for a nuclear-free Taiwan and net-zero emissions by 2050 faces criticism from the opposition for being ‘overly idealistic.’ The KMT also raised concerns about electricity shortages due to the abolition of nuclear power and doubts about renewable energy sufficiency to meet energy demands.
But despite the economic focus, cross-strait issues remain contentious.
Lai's stance on Taiwan independence raises concerns among some Taiwanese voters, potentially impacting his electoral prospects.
While most of Taiwan's populous neither endorse unification nor independence, Lai's strong inclination towards Taiwan's independence might hinder his chances, given its stark difference when compared to previous presidents, who pushed to maintain the status quo.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)