‘Constitutional crises’ are what characterise Sri Lanka now, after President Maithripala Sirisena dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe from office last week. The fact that the President removed a sitting prime minister from office, who enjoyed parliamentary majority, in “exercise of powers”, proves anomalous.
President Sirisena himself, when he first took office, had moved a motion to amend the statute book, which was then passed by Parliament. According to this amendment, the President no longer has powers to terminate the Prime Minister – the move to sack Wickremesinghe, then, appears to be in violation of the law.
Ranil Wickremesinghe served as the 15th Prime Minister of Sri Lanka from 9 January 2015 to 26 October 2018. This is his fourth term as the Prime Minister from the United National Party (UNP) since 1994, and a Member of Parliament for Colombo District since 1977.
Political expediency prompted President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe to form a coalition government in 2015. The UNP emerged as the single largest party in the 2015 Parliamentary elections and secured 106 seats, followed by United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) with 95, Tamil National Alliance (TNA) with 14, People’s Liberation Front (PLF) with four, Eelam People’s Democratic Party with one and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress with one.
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President Sirisena replaced Wickremesinghe with former three-term president Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new prime minister. Thereafter, the President adjourned Parliament till mid November 2018 to make it more difficult for the ousted Wickremesinghe to prove his political majority – unless the Speaker decides to oblige, in such extraordinary circumstances.
But Why Was Wickremesinghe Sacked?
Lankan President Sirisena sacked his Prime Minister and the entire cabinet because of an alleged “conspiracy” to assassinate him.
In a televised address to the nation, President Maithripala Sirisena said investigators had discovered the name of a cabinet minister who had allegedly plotted to have him killed. The reported plot supposedly had Indian involvement, which jeopardised India-Sri Lanka relations.
The President inducted Rajapaksa into the Council of Ministers as Prime Minister to replace Wickremesinghe due to his political image, visibility and personal standing. There is no one else with this stature today.
The role of the Speaker of the Parliament will assume greater importance in the present political environment. The incumbent is well known for his integrity and political maturity and, therefore, will be the cynosure of attention.
The Road Ahead for Wickremesinghe
Meanwhile, Wickremesinghe will have to guard his flock till Parliament re-convenes, and then prove his majority. To do this, he would have to shore up support from among ethnic and other minorities – but he lacks comfortable equations with them.
He could also take his case to the majority Sinhala-Buddhist community for support, but he has weak equations with them too.
The other option for him is to move a motion of impeachment in Parliament against the President after he obtains the requisite affidavits - a motion which the Speaker, if convinced, may have to admit.
What are the challenges ahead for Ranil Wickremesinghe? He would have to prove his dismissal to be unconstitutional and illegal through recourse to the Supreme Court and in the Parliament for retention of his Prime Ministerial position.
For Wickremesinghe, the apex court will be a reality check, given that the Chief Justice was appointed recently by President Sirisena, as have others who serve on it. The task before the President is to justify the dismissal of the Prime Minister and the appointment of Mahinda Rajpaksa in his stead. These are questions that need answers.
Perhaps the possibility of a new Cabinet or Council of Ministers being formed in the next few days may pose another challenge to Wickremesinghe and witness new alignments. There will be many posts and other allurements on offer, and desertions are to be expected.
What Sri Lanka Can Expect in The Days to Come
Both sides are apparently confident that they would be able to obtain the requisite numbers to buttress their claims. Interpretations of Constitutional provisions will have to be carefully articulated due to certain infirmities. The Sirisena-Rajapaksa dispensation will have to undertake efforts to enlarge their parliamentary numbers through methods employed earlier.
Political instability must, therefore, be expected over the next few months, depending on the variables at play there. The ruling coalition was at a point of no return and therefore it was a matter of time before the rupture took place - it has happened sooner rather than than later. This development came as no surprise to Sri Lanka watchers everywhere. There is lot that will unfold in the coming week and give indications as to the future.
The question now also is to what extent New Delhi has been aware of the evolving political developments in Sri Lanka and, importantly, its fall-out on bilateral relations.
While political leaders in private may have a soft corner for India, they will not venture to proclaim it publicly. India is certainly not the flavour of the month in Sri Lanka, despite the best efforts of the incumbent High Commissioner, Taranjit Singh, to build resonance with the majority Sinhala Buddhist society.
The anger against India continues to fester - it does not augur well for present and future relations between the two South Asian neighbours. India will have to ride out the storm and wait for the political drama to abate in order to plot the way forward.
(The writer is a Professor International Relations and Strategic Studies at the Christ Deemed to be University, Bengaluru)
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