Lessons from Malaysia Polls: Expect the Unexpected from Voters

The big lesson from Mahathir Mohammed’s victory in Malaysia is that voters create leaders and give them mandate.

The Washington Post published a very perceptive column on 5 May with the headline, ‘Is Malaysia about to follow the path of Erdogan’s Turkey?’

The key takeaway here, as elsewhere, was that incumbent Prime Minister Najib tun Razak was set to get a third term in office. After all, he has been part of a coalition that has ruled the country every single day since it acquired independence in 1957.

Drawing parallel with Turkey’s strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the column observed that if he wins, “Najib looks set to potentially transform Malaysia, which has been a semi-authoritarian state with some degree of the rule of law, into a more illiberal, politically Islamicised autocracy.”

From ordering seemingly favourable delimitation of constituencies to announcing a bonanza for government servants days ahead of announcement of election dates, he used all tools to get a mandate in his favour. However, that was not to be.

Here Is a Snapshot of What Actually Happened:

• Najib’s Barisan Nasional lost the elections for the first time in 61 years.
• Najib lost to a coalition of disparate parties drawing support from, among others, marginalised minorities and ethnic groups.
• Najib was vanquished by 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad who was once his mentor.
• Mahathir Mohamad ruled the country for 22 years and quit active politics in 2013.
• The grand old man of Malaysian politics came out of retirement to teach, as he once said during a campaign trail, Najib, a “thief”, a lesson.
• Mahathir Mohamad has announced that he would relinquish the post after two years, handing over the reign to Anwar Ibrahim whom he had put in jail while serving as his deputy.

What Led to Najib’s Undoing From a Seemingly Invincible Leader to a Dejected Loser Now?

Analyses by Bloomberg, BBC and Al Jazeera suggest four major reasons:

• Imposition of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in a form that “helped inflation accelerate last year at nearly the fastest pace in a decade.”
• Another push to inflation came in the form of withdrawal of fuel subsidies. Incidentally, Mahathir Mohamad has promised to scrap GST and reintroduce fuel subsidies within 100 days of assuming office.
• His clampdown on voices of dissent by introducing an anti-fake news legislation. What is fake news, however, was never defined.
• A money laundering scandal involving millions of dollars siphoned off from state investment firm. Najib is alleged to have been one of the big beneficiaries.

The 9 May general election was not an ordinary election in the history of Malaysia. And Najib Razak did not seem like losing popular mandate any time soon. The main Opposition leader was in jail and the leader entrusted to lead the anti-Najib front was seen to be too old to put up a fight.

Mahathir Mohamad was seen to be lacking in establishing connect with young and aspirational voters.

What worked in Mahathir’s favour though was the larger-than-life persona of Najib and the latter’s attempt to manufacture consent by crushing any form of dissent.

People Force Leaders to Take Centrestage

Don’t we see more of the same situation everywhere, including our own backyard?

In political discussion we often come across phrases like: Oh, there is no alternative, there is no leader credible enough to take on the big one, or that parties in Opposition have nothing in common and there is no way they can come together.

In the run up to elections in Malaysia, various reports raised similar doubts and came to the conclusion that the Najib regime was set to continue for many more years.

The big lesson from Malaysia therefore is that voters create leaders and give them mandate.

Circumstances force disparate political groups to come together, sometimes out of choice and at times driven by survival instinct.

Need we remind ourselves that the coming together of once sworn enemies – Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav now and Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar earlier – are some of the many instances of circumstances forcing leaders to forge alliances?

There is a message for members of my tribe too. Predicting the outcome of elections is an extremely hazardous business. And for once we should follow the Bollywood wisdom expressed in one popular number – ye jo public hai ye sab jaanati hai.

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