Everything You Haven’t Been Able to Figure Out About Brexit

Brexit is a shorthand term for a British Exit from the European Union.

What Are the People of the UK Voting On?

One question. One cross in the box. How simple could the act of voting be?

The question on the paper that will be handed to voters is:

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

After polling stations close on Thursday, 23 June, all the votes will be added up. That’ll give two totals for Leave or Remain. The side that gets higher than 50% of the vote wins.

As to the arguments for and against, ah, these are NOT simple, but they could change the lives of those in the UK.

What is the European Union?

It’s a partnership of 28 European countries. It’s based around the idea of a “single market” allowing goods and people to move around freely.  It has a currency, the euro, now used by 19 of its members, although the UK has kept the pound sterling.

But it’s important to remember that the EU is political as well as economic. It has its own parliament, and sets rules on a lot of aspects of everyday life.

Hasn’t the UK Voted on This Before? Why Revisit a Decision Made 40 Years Ago?

Because it was forty years ago! Brits born after 1957 – like me – haven’t had their say on something that could affect much of their life – from the job market to the cost of holidays to the quality of the air that they breathe.

Also, membership of the “Common Market” that this generation’s parents voted on back in June 1975, is very different to membership of today’s “European Union”.  Then, the British were voting to continue their new membership of the EEC, the 9 state European Economic Community. Today, the UK is talking about its part in a 28 member union with its own parliament and currency.

This is the first time Britons have voted on whether they want to be part of a community of more than 500 million people, stretching from Ireland to Estonia. So it’s very relevant to have these arguments about whether by being “in”, the UK is gaining friends and influence or losing valuable independence. What does the UK think and which of those factors matters more?

Where Does the Term ‘Brexit’ Come From?

This is a shorthand term for a British Exit from the EU. It first popped up four years ago, after all the agonising about Grexit, the possibility of Greece leaving the Eurozone. And there’s more – other variations include Fixit, as Finland debated earlier this year whether it should hold its own referendum.

Who Can Vote?

Any British citizen who’s over 18, legally resident here, and registered to vote.

British citizens living abroad can also vote – if they’ve registered – but the UK’s highest court has just confirmed that there is a catch. They won’t be eligible if they’ve lived outside the UK for longer than 15 years.

Commonwealth citizens or Irish nationals who are legally resident in the UK get to have their say too on 23 June – that’s an estimated extra million votes for Remain or Leave. Commonwealth citizens living in Gibraltar are also eligible to vote.

Will Non-UK Residents Be Able to Stay If the UK Votes to Leave the EU?

A lot will depend on whether the UK stays in the Single Market after a Leave vote, and whether it will have to guarantee free movement of citizens in order to do so. That will partly depend on its former EU partners. If the UK moves outside the Single Market, permits may be required for other EU nationals to live and work in the country. We just don’t know at this stage.

Currently, the magic figure is five years. If someone has lived legally in the UK that long as a citizen from another state in the European Economic Area (which also includes countries like Iceland and Norway), they become a permanent resident. After six years, they can apply for UK citizenship, if their home country allows dual citizenship.

It’s worth noting that the question cuts both ways . Just as around three million EU nationals live in the UK, two million UK nationals are also living in other EU countries.  Brexit might make it tougher for European migrants to use public services or apply for jobs in Britain. Equally, will it be harder for Brits abroad to get access to healthcare, schools and jobs where they live?

How Are Members of the Same Government Supporting Different Sides?

A lot of people are confused to see the UK Prime Minister David Cameron campaigning to Remain, and members of his own party – like the former London Mayor Boris Johnson – or even his own cabinet ministers – like the Justice Secretary Michael Gove – urging voters to Leave. But Mr Cameron’s decision to allow even the ministers he’s appointed to speak freely on this,  reflects the political reality: The governing Conservatives are deeply divided on whether EU membership is good for the UK. They have been for decades.

The main opposition Labour party is clearly in the Remain camp, although a few Labour MPs are calling for the UK to leave the EU.

But it would be too simplistic to try to sum up the EU debate as a “left-right” struggle.  It’s so easy on so many big issues to say “the Left thinks this and the Right thinks that”. But not here. So you hear some Conservatives like Winston Churchill’s grandson Nicholas Soames MP urging voters to stay with a European project created out of the desire to stop France and Germany ever going to war again. And you hear powerful left-wing voices arguing that the EU favours big corporations and damages national democracies.

So there is no simple divide, no easy political shorthand. Let’s just say, in the run up to 23 June, much of normal Westminster politics is suspended.

Will the Result Mean a Change of UK Government or Leadership?

In short, no. This is a one line question about one thing only: Should the UK remain in or leave the European Union.

To give you a slightly longer answer, this is a bitter campaign that has divided both main parties – especially the governing Conservatives. If voters decide that the UK should leave the European Union, many will ask whether David Cameron – who led the campaign to remain – should stay on as party leader and as Prime Minister. But there is nothing about the vote on 23 June that automatically or legally triggers any change of leadership.

Will It Be a Clear Result?

In short, yes.  It’s either stay or go.

But the real answer is – it’s complicated. If the UK stays, for example, what happens to the deal that David Cameron made with his fellow EU leaders this February on limiting welfare payments to migrants?

If the UK is to leave, how will that be organised? Will Britain stay in the Single Market? What sort of trading, treaties and alliances with the outside world will the UK negotiate? The Leave campaign suggests that a UK-EU Treaty could be wrapped up within two years. Many Remain campaigners say it could take much longer than that.

At the moment, there’s no shortage of proposed answers, but many of them come as competing theories.

How Will This Impact the Queen/Royal Family?

It won’t! The Queen remains the monarch of the United Kingdom, as well as monarch of 15 other countries in the Commonwealth.  We would all love to know what the Queen thinks about the Euro Referendum – and there’s been some feverish press speculation – but Her Majesty is as always determined not to make political statements, and to remain above the cut and thrust of the campaign.

What About the Different Nations of the United Kingdom?

This is a UK-wide vote, and there are different political forces at play.

It’s fair to say that north of the border, the Scottish political establishment is much more clearly in favour of staying in the European Union – and that was reflected by a formal vote in the Scottish parliament at the end of May. But public opinion here too is divided.

If the UK does vote to leave the EU, there could well be political pressure at Edinburgh for a second referendum on whether Scotland in turn would want to leave the United Kingdom.

Most leading Welsh politicians are backing the campaign to stay, though the polls show public opinion is more divided.

And there’s a great deal at stake for Northern Ireland. If the UK leaves the EU, there could be new customs checks across the border between north and south, a land border between a UK which is “out” and an Irish Republic which is very definitely inside the European Union.

(Philippa Thomas is a Presenter with BBC World News. This story has been published in collaboration with BBC World News.)

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