Come 3 November and voters across the United States of America (USA) will set into motion the process of selecting who becomes President.
But will President Donald Trump, who’s the Republican candidate be second-time lucky? Or will he have to vacate the Oval room for Democratic Party Nominee Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris?
Here’s what a poll of polls conducted by the British Broadcasting Corporation, better known as the BBC, has found.
Biden Ahead by 9 percent in National Stage
Nationally, Joe Biden is ahead of President Trump by none points at 52 percent, while the President seems to be lagging behind at 43 percent, according to the BBC’s poll of polls.
But is winning the most of the national popular votes in an opinion poll or polls an indication or a guarantee of Presidentship? Not really.
For instance, in the year 2016, Hillary Clinton won nearly three million votes more than Donald Trump, but still lost the election to the Republican candidate.
Why?
That’s because the US follows a method of indirect election where voters choose electors who then choose the President. There are a total of 538 electors in total and a candidate has to secure 270 more elector votes to win.
The number of electors a state sends roughly corresponds to its population. Hence, California sends about 55 electors, whereas states like Wyoming, Alaska and North Dakota has only 3 electors.
Which Way are Swing States Swinging?
Since most states traditionally vote in the same way, there are just a couple of states which can make or unmake a President, in case the person is still serving. The states where elections are lost and won are called battleground states or swing states.
According to the BBC’s poll of polls, Biden is ahead of President Trump in 12 out of 14 battleground states.
In New Hampshire, for instance, Biden is ahead of President trump by at least 11 points – the widest gap so far between the two contestants.
However, Ohio and Texas are the only two states where President Trump seems to be having some sway over Biden.
Who Won the Debate?
On 29 September, President Trump and Joe Biden faced each other in the first live debate on television. A national poll conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal placed Biden at 53 percent, while Trump was lagging behind at 39 percent – a gap of 14 percentage points.
When it comes to the Trump Administration’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, majority of Americans have been left rather unimpressed.
Data from a poll conducted by ABC News and Ipsos poll shows how just 35 percent Americans approved of the way in which the pandemic was handles.
Curiously, around 72 percent felt that President Trump neither took the risk of contracting COVID-19 seriously nor did he take appropriate precautions to safeguard his own health.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)