Balochistan Attacks: A Deadly Escalation That Could Harm India-Pakistan Ties

At least 70 people were killed in Pakistan's Balochistan province in coordinated terror attacks on 26 August.

It was at the 1940 Lahore Session of the Muslim League when Muhammad Ali Jinnah first made the demand for Pakistan. In an Indian state, he said, Muslims would be denigrated to the rank of second-class citizens. On the other hand, a state which comprises of only Muslims will enjoy ever-lasting peace due to their cultural congruity – an argument that created the roots of what came to be known as the 'two-nation theory' and divided the sub-continent.

With the recent intensification of the conflict in Pakistan's Balochistan province, which led to over 70 deaths, experts say that Jinnah's two-nation theory has once again fallen flat on its face as "ethnicities or tribal affiliations are seemingly as or more important than co-religiosity".

A Marked Increase in Violence

A series of militant attacks in Balochistan on Monday, 26 August, claimed the lives of army officials, police officers, and migrant labourers – following warnings issued by the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) to civilians to avoid using highways.

In response, security forces said that they gunned down 21 militants of the BLA.

The attacks mark the deadly culmination of weeks-long peaceful protests in the province heralded by the human rights body Baloch Yakjehti Committee, which had been highlighting the dire humanitarian and economic catastrophe facing locals. The protests were met by alleged excessive force by the Pakistan Army which exacerbated the situation.

While Balochistan has been a hotbed of tensions for decades, experts say that the recent attacks mark a clear escalation of the conflict.

"Tensions have certainly risen in Balochistan of late," Pakistan-based journalist Azaz Syed said while speaking to The Quint.

"If we go by the number of people tragically killed, these attacks definitely mark a major incident in the region and there is certainly a sense of alienation among locals."

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The date chosen for the coordinated attacks, however, was not random. The violence was carried out on 26 August, which marks the 18th death anniversary of Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti, who was killed by the Pakistan Army in 2006.

The worst of the violence was seen in Balochistan's Musakhel district, where at least 23 civilians were killed by militants allegedly after they were found to be Punjabi migrants. In Kalat, similarly, five civilians were among 10 people gunned down during an attack on a police post.

Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, says that the latest round of attacks stands out because of their sheer scale alone.

"Balochistan is a region that has a long-running, festering insurgency where we have seen a number of attacks over the years. But the scale of these latest attacks in terms of the number of fatalities and the range of targets – including police, migrants, and infrastructure – is of a magnitude that we have not seen for quite some time."

Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC

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Why is Balochistan on the Boil? 

The latest terror attacks come in the backdrop of intense grievances of the local Balochis against the Pakistan government on a number of counts.

Economic oversight

Balochistan is a province that contains one of the world's richest reserves of minerals and natural resources which the Pakistan government has been accused of exploiting without giving back economically to locals. This has led to the impoverishment of the region and its sub-standard performance in varied developmental indicators as compared to more developed provinces like Punjab and Sindh.

While Balochistan hosts the strategic Gwadar Port – the lifeline of Pakistan's oil trade – as well as major infrastructural projects of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the benefits of the projects have not trickled down to ordinary citizens. On the contrary, locals allege that their jobs have been taken away by migrants from Punjab and other provinces – which is one of the major bones of contention for separatist groups.

Over the years, militant attacks have largely been focused on migrants from Punjab as well as Chinese citizens and projects, thus sending a clear message that non-locals are not welcome there and that jobs in Balochistan are for Balochis alone.

"Without Balochistan and its possibilities and actualities, Pakistan cannot survive economically and geo-strategically," says Pakistan expert Lt Gen (Retd) Bhopinder Singh, "and the genealogical 'Idea of Pakistan' implodes with the possible fruition of the 'Second Bangladesh' via Balochistan."

Counter-insurgency measures

In a bid to quell the separatist sentiments widespread in the region, Pakistani security forces have often been accused by locals and rights bodies of using excessive force even against peaceful protesters.

One of the most grievous segments of Pakistan's counter-insurgency measures has been alleged enforced disappearances – implying that the whereabouts of several people detained by the government are in the dark. This has often led to allegations of custodial killings and fake encounters. According to the Voice of Baloch Missing Persons, there have been more than 7,000 such disappearances between 2002 and 2024.

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"Pakistan cannot extricate itself from blame as it has historically, systematically and dismissively afforded step-motherly treatment onto the Balouch grievances since independence and bluntly tried suppressing voices of concern and dissent," Lt Gen Singh told The Quint.

"A proud people with civilisational independence from subjugation or foreign rule have now been relegated to second class citizenship and their disconnect and disillusionment has only increased," he added.

Geographical location

While the conflict in Balochistan is multi-faceted, with many parties vying for control over the region, the geographical location of the province is itself a detriment to peace in the region.

The westernmost province of Pakistan and the largest by landmass, Balochistan neighbours two extremely volatile countries: Afghanistan and Iran.

Ever since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan has witnessed an upsurge of terror attacks. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, the country saw 650 recorded attacks in 2023 alone – 23 percent of which occurred in Balochistan.

"The principal factor causing tensions in Balochistan is regional instability. This is a region where control has passed through different hands – Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and Iran-backed militant groups," Azaz Syed told The Quint.

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Implications for India 

Instead of acknowledging its own shortcomings responsible for the upheaval in Balochistan, Pakistan has over the years alleged India's hand in fomenting separatist sentiments in the province – despite the fact that Balochistan is not even contiguous to the Indian mainland.

"Pakistan will not stop seeing the 'India hand' to apportion a convenient, rote and believable accusation. While it does give India a solid handle to counter-accuse and embarrass Islamabad of human rights issues, as Islamabad does likewise, the Baloch insurgency is organic, self-propelling and borne out of known derelictions, suppressions and abuses by Islamabad and not a creation of India."

Lt Gen (Retd) Bhopinder Singh

Pakistan's arguments against India became even more aggressive after an Indian national named Kulbhushan Jadhav was arrested in March 2016 in Balochistan's Chaman area. While Pakistan alleged that Jadhav is an Indian naval officer deputed in Balochistan by India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), New Delhi has consistently maintained that there is no truth to the allegations and that Jadhav was kidnapped by Pakistani security forces from Iran.

Experts say that if incidents like the recent terror attacks continue, this could spell even further degradation of India-Pakistan ties.

"Pakistan has long accused India of being behind some of the violent movements in Balochistan. If we see a pattern of a growing number of such attacks, that could heighten tensions between India and Pakistan as the latter will continue to accuse India," Kugelman told The Quint.

Similarly, Lt General Singh says that Pakistan should get its own house in order instead of shifting blame regarding the Balochistan issue.

"Pakistan must acknowledge missteps and denials since independence and thereafter ensure parity and perceived dignity in Balochistan in line with what is afforded to other parts and people of Pakistan. A sense of inclusivity, dignity and equality has to be earned by the Pakistani state as opposed to the wildly held belief of milking Balochistan for the benefit of others like China."

Lt Gen (Retd) Bhopinder Singh

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