BJP Twitter handles recently shared an infographic based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), claiming to show that the global organisation had projected positive growth for India in 2020.
However, we found that the infographic is based on old data and is making misleading claims.
CLAIM
The infographic, shared by the BJP Twitter handle on 22 August, claimed that while other major economies were projected to have negative growth in 2020, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, IMF data showed that India would be a “shining spot” and would register positive growth.
The graphic is titled “India’s spectacular economic fightback during COVID-19” and says that it will register the highest GDP growth among countries.
Many other BJP handles also shared the same infographic with the same claim on Twitter.
BJP leader Nityananda Rai also shared the same, along with many other Twitter users.
The BJP Delhi handle also shared the infographic on Facebook, where the claim was also viral.
WHAT WE FOUND
The latest IMF data actually shows that India’s 2020 projected growth is minus (-) 4.5 percent, while global growth is projected at minus (-) 4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, owing to the devastating effects of the pandemic.
This is shown by the graphic below IMF data, according to which only China will see a positive growth while all other economies will experience negative growth. This data is taken from the World Economic Outlook Update 2020, published in June 2020.
The June update to the April 2020 report says that “economic data available at the time of the April 2020 WEO forecast indicated an unprecedented decline in global activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data releases since then suggest even deeper downturns than previously projected for several economies.” The report also adds that “India’s economy is projected to contract by 4.5 percent following a longer period of lockdown and slower recovery than anticipated in April.”
Therefore, India will not be retaining its position as “the fastest growing economy”, since while it is projected to contract, China is projected to grow by 1 percent in 2020.
What did the April report say? According to the World Economic Outlook report published in April, India was projected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2020.
Therefore, it is clear that BJP’s infographic shared on 22 August relies on data published by the IMF in April 2020 and ignores the update published in June, which took into account the effects of the lockdown on India’s economy.
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