In the early hours of 30 July, the serene Wayanad district in Kerala was hit by an unexpected and massive landslide.
The disaster – the worst the state has seen since 2018 – claimed over 300 lives in the Mundakkai and Chooralmala villages, displaced thousands of people, and left behind a trail of destruction.
A day later, a political blame-game ensued between Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
As the Parliament on 31 July took up a discussion on Wayanad under a 'calling attention' motion, Shah claimed that the Centre had warned the Kerala government of a potential calamity a week earlier.
He said that early warning systems in India were utilised to alert the government. However, CM Vijayan said it was "baseless" to claim the state did not heed the warning, adding that "this is not the time for blame games."
The Congress on Friday, 2 August, submitted a breach of privilege notice against Shah accusing him of allegedly misleading the Rajya Sabha by claiming in the House that the Kerala government did not act on the early warnings issued to it on landslides.
But did the Kerala government receive an early warning on the floods, or were Shah's claims incorrect? The Quint takes a closer look.
Amit Shah vs Pinarayi Vijayan
Addressing the Rajya Sabha, Shah said he would like to “clarify” certain things to ensure that there were no “misunderstandings."
"On 23 July, the Kerala government was given an early warning by the Government of India. On 23 July, seven days prior. It was given on the 24th and 25th, and then on the 26th, it was said that there will be more than 20 centimeters of rain, heavy rain, and that landslides were possible. Mud can also rush and come in, and people can trapped in it and die,"Amit Shah in Rajya Sabha
You can watch the video here from the 2:12 timestamp.
Lashing out at allegations of there is no Early Warning System (EWS) in place, Shah said, "Don’t scream ‘Please listen [to] us, please listen [to] us’, please read it: what warning we have sent, please read it."
Note: According to the United Nations, an Early Warning System is an adaptive measure for climate change, using integrated communication systems to help communities prepare for hazardous climate-related events.
The home minister also claimed that there are several state governments that have paid heed to these warnings and managed disasters in such a way that there were zero casualties.
“In Odisha, we gave a four-day warning before the cyclone … only one person died, that too accidentally. For the Gujarat government too, we gave a cyclone alert three days before, and not a single animal died,” he said.
Shah added that on the same day, nine teams of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) left for the state under his approval.
“The Union government did so much, what did the Kerala government do? People were living in vulnerable situations, but were they shifted? Why weren’t they shifted?” Shah asked. “If they had been shifted, how would they have died?”
Vague Advisories and Misleading Predictions: What Government Data Tells Us
As of now, it is the India Metrological Department (IMD), the Geological Survey of India (GSI), and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) are the three bodies which issue advance alerts on heavy rainfall and possible landslides.
The Central Water Commission also issues flood alerts based on hydrological data it receives from IMD.
Now, let's take a look at IMD data over the last 12 days.
In its press release on 18 July, the IMD issued a warning for a flash flood risk in northern parts of Kerala until 19 July.
The bulletin said, "Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over the region during next 5 days."
But the extended range forecast, issued between 18 July and 31 July, carried no mention of Kerala for the period.
The IMD press release published on 23 July (the day Shah claimed the Centre alerted Kerala government) warned of “very heavy rainfall at isolated places” in Kerala and Mahe on 25 July, and heavy rainfall over isolated/some places in Kerala and Mahe from 23-27 July.
But if you look at the visual sub-division-wise weather warnings, a yellow “watch” alert was issued for the state on 23, 24, 26, and 27 July, and an orange alert was issued on 25 July. A yellow alert does not call for action, though.
On 25 July, IMD said that "Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Kerala & Mahe over two weeks," and heavy rainfall was very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe from 26-30 July.
In its extended-range forecast issued on 25 July, IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Thiruvananthapuram predicted “cumulative above normal rainfall” for Kerala from 26 July to 1 August.
Shah said that on 26 July, warnings were given stating that there would be more than 20 centimeters of rain, and that landslide were possible. The IMD press release published that day, however, carried no such warning.
The district rainfall forecast issued by the Thiruvananthapuram Met centre on 26 July predicted “light to moderate” rainfall for Wayanad district on 30 July.
Additionally, an Agricultural Meteorology Division of IMD Pune (Agromet) forecast issued on 26 July for Wayanad predicted only 15 mm of rainfall in the district on 30 July, the day when the landslides occurred.
In a nutshell, between 23 July and 28 July, the IMD did not issue any orange alerts for heavy rain in Kerala.
Now, coming to 29 July, a day before the massive landslides hit Wayanad. The IMD predicted "very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe."
An orange alert ('be prepared') was issued at 1 pm on 29 July for Kerala and a yellow alert on 31 July ('keep a watch').
Amid the blame game, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told PTI that an orange warning "means be prepared for action and one should not wait for red warnings."
For Wayanad, a yellow alert (watch) was issued on 30 by IMD's district rainfall data. Only 2.5-15.5 mm rainfall was forecast for Wayanad, contrary to the average 190 mm rainfall recorded in Vyttiri, Manantoddy, Ambalavayal and Karapuzha.
Reacting to Shah's claims, CM Vijayan said, “None of the agencies had issued a red alert for Wayanad ahead of the 30 July landslides."
CM Vijayan also shared a bulletin called "Experimental Rainfall Induced Landslide Forecast Bulletin" for Wayanad district, issued on 29 July. According to the release, there was a “low possibility” of occurrences of landslides from 30-31 July.
Note: The Quint has not been able to independently verify this.
The landslide hit Wayanad at around 1:30 am on 30 July. Interestingly, the red alert (take action warning) came 12 hours later at 1:10 pm the same day.
The Quint also looked at IMD's Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) which states that red alerts for extremely heavy rainfall cannot be issued more than 48 hours in advance. This contradicts Shah's "seven days before" claim. While Shah's claims were not untrue, they are misleading.
The Quint has reached out to Shah's office and the IMD for further clarity and additional comments. The story will be updated once we get a response.
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