Former Union minister and ex-BJP leader Yashwant Sinha joined the Trinamool Congress on Saturday, 13 March.
Soon after joining, Sinha said, “Democracy is in danger under the BJP” and alleged that the BJP of today isn’t what it was during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time.
“Atalji believed in consensus, the present BJP believes in crushing,” Sinha said.
The question now is: What is the significance of Sinha’s decision?
There are two elements to this – its importance in the context of the upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections and its national significance.
Can Sinha Make a Difference in West Bengal Elections?
From the point of view of the West Bengal elections, Sinha is an important induction for the TMC in the context of the large number of its own leaders who have joined the BJP – from Suvendu Adhikary to Dinesh Trivedi and actor Mithun Chakraborty.
Having been a senior BJP leader and a prominent member of the Vajpayee cabinet, Sinha is a big name to have for the TMC.
At a time when the BJP is being accused in Bengal of going overboard in recruiting “outsiders,” a Vajpayee minister saying “this is not Vajpayee’s BJP” is an important political statement.
However, purely from an electoral point of view, Sinha is of very little relevance in West Bengal. Even in his home state of Jharkhand, Sinha doesn’t carry much influence and has always been known as a central leader.
What Is the National Significance of Sinha’s Move?
The real significance of Sinha’s induction is national. It stems from the realisation among many non-Congress aligned anti-BJP forces that defeating the BJP in West Bengal is essential to preventing India’s slide towards a de-facto, one party dominant system.
Consider this possibility – if BJP wins Bengal, it would be able to say that ‘for the first time, the river Ganga wouldn’t be passing through a single non-NDA ruled state’. This may sound purely symbolic but it is how the BJP is likely to spin it.
The impact would be even greater if the Congress fails to recapture both Kerala and Assam.
Sinha isn’t the only national entity to have realised this. Several parties who seek to occupy the anti-BJP space are openly or tacitly supporting the TMC and Mamata Banerjee – this includes the RJD, JMM, Shiv Sena, Samajwadi Party and Aam Aadmi Party.
Three of these happen to be in alliance with the Congress in their respective states and yet, they are choosing to support the TMC.
Even the CPI-ML, while announcing support for Left candidates in a few Bengal seats, has called for the defeat of the BJP, in effect indicating its support for TMC.
Leaders of the farmers’ movement such as Rakesh Tikait are also likely to come to Bengal to campaign against the BJP, in effect helping the TMC.
Why TMC and Not Congress?
Just like the anti-Congressism of 1970s and 1980s, this is an era of anti-BJPism and leaders like Sinha recognise this.
The question, however, is why has he joined TMC and not the Congress?
Surely as a leader from Jharkhand and known better in Delhi’s power circles, the Congress may have been a more logical choice.
It seems that there is an attempt to create an anti-BJP formation at the national level that isn’t led by the Congress.
There is a belief among many anti-BJP leaders that the Congress, in its present form, will not be able to take on the BJP and that there is a need for a new alignment.
Future Possibilities
It is possible that Sinha could be accommodated in the Rajya Sabha under the TMC quota. One seat is presently vacant following the resignation of Dinesh Trivedi, who has joined the BJP. Then another Rajya Sabha MP, Manas Bhunia, is contesting the Assembly election and could vacate his seat if elected.
Depending on the results of the Assembly polls, one or both of these seats could come the TMC’s way and possibly Sinha could be accommodated.
His entry into TMC may also be a sign of future alignments in national politics. The West Bengal election has already emerged as a major front in the national battle against BJP.
If Banerjee wins Bengal, she is likely to emerge as a major catalyst of anti-BJP politics in the country, as a leader who has thwarted a major BJP offensive in her state.
If the Congress loses Kerala and Assam, it may set in motion an internal churn in the party, thereby creating space for an anti-BJP formation not necessarily led by the Congress.
A key player in that eventuality would be Prashant Kishor, whose team is managing the TMC’s campaign in West Bengal and the DMK’s campaign in Tamil Nadu.
Kishor is also involved with YS Jaganmohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, reportedly Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and he recently took up an assignment with Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab, his only Congress client.
Having links with several leaders in the non-BJP space makes Kishor interestingly placed in the eventuality of such an anti-BJP formation.
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