Usually, the sequence of events is this: choosing of a candidate, announcing his/her candidature, filing the nomination papers. Trust BJP, however, to turn everything on its head when it come to making statement moves. Prof SP Singh Baghel, a sitting union minister and Loksabha MP from Agra, filed his nomination from Karhal against Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav on 31 January, much to everyone's surprise.
A BJP spokesperson, requesting to stay anonymous, shares, "Even Baghel ji did not know that he was the candidate against Akhilesh Yadav".
"Ye toh bilkul hi ulti Ganga beh gayi" says a sitting BJP MP from Uttar Pradesh about the dramatic nature of Baghel's candidature. Most of the senior BJP members in UP were not aware of his nomination. It is not usual, after all, for a sitting union minister to contest state assembly polls.
Who Asked SP Singh Baghel to Fight Against Akhilesh Yadav?
Baghel boasts of an accomplished and colourful political career. After losing his first parliamentary election as a BSP candidate, he went on to win the next three on Samajwadi Party ticket from Jalesar constituency of Uttar Pradesh—1998, 1999, 2004. He was nominated to the Rajya Sabha in 2010 as a BSP candidate. He joined the BJP in 2017 and has contested contested two parliamentary and one assembly tickets for the party since then.
Sources within the BJP share that it was the "very top leadership" that wanted Baghel to contest this election against Akhilesh Yadav. Taking further the "BJP vs BJP" trope of this assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, his candidature is being seen as a trump card to "cut Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to size".
Karhal, with a majority of Yadav voters is a difficult seat to win for the BJP. If Baghel is able to pull an Amethi-like miracle, it will be a big win for the "Centre" faction of the BJP. Baghel has been the BJP's trusted man for contesting from headline-making seats.
Can Dalit Voters Help the BJP Against Akhilesh Yadav?
Karhal has been a Samajwadi Party stronghold since 1993. For the BJP, it is a difficult seat because the Yadav and Dalit voters have been rejecting it for three decades.
Sources on ground share that the Yadavs, almost monolithic in their support for Akhilesh Yadav, are making it difficult for Baghel to campaign in the constituency. Bad blood between Baghel and the SP supporters upon the former's alleged 'betrayal' in 2010 is still a strong polarising factor.
What will work in Baghel's favour, however, is the possible swing of Karhal's Dalit voters.
In 2017, Sobaran Singh Yadav of the SP bagged 1,04,221 votes.
The BJP candidate, Rama Shakya, got 65,816, while the BSP's Dalvir got 29,676. The significant thing about 2017 election was the BJP displacing the BSP as the second largest party in the constituency, thanks to the swing in Dalit vote. The BJP increased its vote share from a meagre 6.6% in 2012 to 31.45% in 2017.
The BSP has fielded first timer Kuldeep Narain alias Deepak Painter as its candidate against Akhilesh Yadav. Narain belongs to the Jatav community, Mayawati's traditional voter base.
Karhal being an unreserved seat, Baghel's candidature from here also aims to tackle the Dalit vote consolidation against the BJP.
In his latest election meeting, Akhilesh Yadav has, once again, made an appeal to the BSP voters for supporting the Samajwadi Party.
"Only the BJP Can Defeat the BJP"
All of this, however, is a matter of mathematical calculation. What transpires on 20 February will depend on several factors. While many in the BJP are almost sure of no phoenix-like resurrection for the BSP, they are apprehensive about the infighting within their own party.
"If Maharaj ji sees Baghel as a competitor for the post of CM, he'll leave no stone unturned to ensure that Akhilesh Yadav wins with a record margin."
As is being whispered in the saffron ramparts of Delhi and Lucknow, only the BJP can defeat the BJP.
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