Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) patriarch Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao is bracing himself to run for the office of Chief Minister, for the third time since 2014. In December 2023, as Telangana prepares itself for Legislative Assembly elections, KCR, as Rao is popularly known, will also be trying to play a different role – pitching TRS as a “credible” alternative to both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress.
If all goes well, KCR, who has already won two terms as CM, plans to anoint his son K T Rama Rao as his heir apparent in Telangana and shift to New Delhi.
Can KCR, who plans to align himself with other regional leaders – Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee, and Maharashtra’ Uddhav Thackeray – be a national player in Indian politics? Will his idea of ‘federal front’ work?
It seems, KCR will have to brave quite a lot in his tryst for national prominence. For starters, in Telangana he will have to face the rising anti-incumbency sentiment, as he and members of his family have governed the state for over six years. Besides, he is haunted by trust deficit among his peers. It will be tough for KCR to stand up against the tide of saffron politics, if the caucus of regional parties is directionless about their alliance strategy.
Feeling the Anti-Incumbency Heat
If KCR wishes to realise his twin goals, of playing both a national and regional political leader, he will have to successfully douse the flames of anti-incumbency and win the state elections due in 2023, before he even attempts to win the national elections in 2024.
Chandrashekar Rao’s rule over the last six years has left various sections thoroughly disappointed, because he failed to keep several of his poll promises.
First, KCR failed to keep the promise, made during the Telangana agitation, of appointing a Dalit CM. When his party came to power for the first time after the formation of Telangana in 2014, the Velama (dominant caste) leader decided to keep the CM’s office. Also, Dalita-Bandhu scheme, launched during by-election in Huzurabad – with a promise to extend a cash incentive of Rs 10 lakh to every Dalit family in the state – was a non-starter. Another big promise of double bed-room flats for the poor also remained unfulfilled.
KCR’s decision to up the retirement age of government employees has caused disappointment among the jobless youths.
Moreover, joblessness among young people in the state, has rendered one of Rao’s triple promises – neellu (water), nidhulu (funds) and niyamakalu (jobs) – void.
As per CR Biswal committee report, 1.91 lakh posts have been lying vacant in various government departments in Telangana even as the state government has been running the show using the labour of underpaid, contract employees.
To top it all, KCR has found a magic bullet solution to scuttle his failings – poll strategist Prashant Kishor.
Kishor’s appointment has raised doubts over the CM’s confidence. Is the mighty KCR jittery about his party’s future even in Telangana, let alone New Delhi?
Kishor visited Mallanna Sagar reservoir, a branch of the Kaleswaram lift irrigation scheme, immediately after he struck a deal with KCR, to showcase the development programmes initiated by the TRS government. Besides, Kishor reportedly undertook a pilot survey in 30 Assembly segments to gauge the winning chances of TRS.
On 26 April, Prashant Kishor's I-PAC signed a poll campaign contract with TRS, KCR son, IT Minister and TRS Working President K Taraka Rama Rao, announced. This was a day before Kishor announced that he has declined an offer to join the Indian National Congress.
Meanwhile, the BJP’s sweeping victory in the recently concluded Assembly elections, could have a major impact on national politics, making it a tough task for the Opposition parties to unseat Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Adverse Poll Tides to Test KCR
The BJP retained power in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Manipur, and is just one short of a simple majority on its own, in Goa. If this outcome is any indication, it will be an uphill task for KCR to scout for prospective partners to join his ‘federal front.’
In KCR’s home state too, the saffron party has been growing strong, challenging the TRS supremo’s authority since 2019 general election. The BJP took the TRS leader by surprise, when it won four Lok Sabha seats, including the one (Nizamabad) held by KCR’s daughter Kavitha Kalvakuntla. Subsequently, the BJP expanded its footprint, as evident by its win in Dubbak (2020) and Huzurabad (2021) by-polls for state Assembly seats.
In the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election for 150 members, the BJP bagged 48 divisions.
The promise of a saffron tide has energised BJP cadre in Telangana, who are currently rallying behind MP and party president Bandi Sanjay Kumar.
But what could affect KCR’s shot at national politics the most, is the lack of trust other political actors have in him.
Rao’s Credibility Crisis
Chandrasekhar Rao suffers from trust deficit. The 69-year-old initially began his political career with the Congress. He was in the Youth Congress before he switched to the Telugu Desam Party, floated by movie mogul NT Rama Rao.
After breaking away with the TDP, KCR floated the TRS and shared power with the Congress-led UPA as Union Minister for Labour (2004-‘09). But, after Telangana was carved out from Andhra Pradesh state, KCR mostly remained a friend of the National Democratic Front.
He backed, at least covertly, several of the BJP’s controversial decisions including GST, demonetisation, RTI Amendment Bill, Inter-State River Water Disputes (Amendment) Bill, Citizenship Amendment Act, and National Register of Citizens. His bonhomie with the saffron party continued until he found a strong rival in the BJP in his own state.
While it is not clear which political parties have refused to trust KCR, the poor show at his New Delhi protest in April, did give the impression that the leader is on his own.
CM of a Small State with Poor Bargaining Power
When KCR led the protest against the Centre’s paddy procurement policy in Delhi, there was no national or state leader – except for farmers’ leader Rakesh Tikait – around him. This, even after he had reached out Pinarayi Vijayan, Uddav Thakeray, Sharad Pawar, MK Stalin, Mamata Banerjee, and Hemant Soren, to form the 'federal front.'
Even YS Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh, whom KCR had once called his foster son, did not accompany the TRS leader in opposing PM Modi.
Also, the lack of consensus over the Congress’ inclusion in the anti-BJP camp, has become a deterrent for KCR. Though KCR is harping on an ‘anti-BJP-anti-Congress’ platform, Stalin and Soren have the view that the anti-BJP front will not be viable without the grand old party, given its secular credentials and pan-India presence.
The bigger question, however, is whether Telangana, with its 17 Lok Sabha seats, would matter in the national equation.
KCR represents a relatively smaller state just a handful of seats. Moreover, out of the 17 seats the TRS, in 2019, managed to win only nine.
This when, Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has 23 seats, Stalin has 24 seats and Thackeray has 19 seats.
Will KCR make a mark? It will be quite an achievement if he does.
(Gali Nagaraja is a Senior Journalist based in Andhra Pradesh)
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