"Why are you always after me? Why do you keep asking this question repeatedly?" said a visibly irritated Ajit Pawar on Tuesday, 2 May, as a reporter quizzed him if the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) would continue to be a part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in Maharashtra.
Perennially under the cloud of suspicion of engineering a rebellion to join hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Ajit Pawar is once again being touted as the "next in line" to take over the reins of the NCP after party supremo Sharad Pawar on announced his wish to resign.
While he cited age-related issues and his wish to pave way for the new generation, Sharad Pawar's decision, many believe, was a carefully calculated move to quell the brewing dissent within the party and prevent it from going the Shiv Sena way.
Several aspects will help understand why it suits Ajit Pawar politically to stay with the MVA for now and what may force him to rethink it in the future:
The growing strength of the NCP in the state and MVA
The BJP having less to offer
What the Shiv Sena may offer
The aftermath of Sharad Pawar's resignation announcement
Sharad Pawar Quits or Not, Staying With MVA Best for Ajit. What's The Catch?
1. The Growing Strength of the NCP & MVA in the State
The three 'Vajramuth' rallies by the MVA in Sambhaji Nagar, Nagpur, and Mumbai received massive response.
The MVA as a whole has outperformed the Shinde-BJP alliance in several key polls in the past nine months since the Uddhav government fell, with NCP being the major contributor to the victory in most of them.
After the BJP, the NCP is the second largest party currently in the state in terms of organisational strength, clout, cadre, and resources.
A quick look at the recent performance by the NCP and the MVA in several polls held in the past few months:
In the agricultural produce market committee (APMC) elections in April, the MVA won most committees, with the NCP alone bagging maximum of them for the alliance.
In March, the MVA toppled the BJP in Pune's Kasba Peth Assembly bypoll, a seat that the saffron party held for nearly three decades. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and party's state chief Chandrakant Patil had extensively campaigned in the constituency
In the elections for five MLC seats held in January this year, the MVA bagged three of the five teachers' seats including Nagpur, Devendra Fadnavis' home turf
In the gram panchayat polls held in December 2022, though the BJP won over 3,100 seats, the NCP was at the second spot with over 1,200 seats. While the Congress was at the third spot with 809 seats, the Shinde faction had won 842, and the Uddhav faction came last with 637 seats
In the gram panchayat polls held for 18 districts in October last year, the MVA's numbers trumped the Shinde-BJP alliance's tally, even though the BJP got the maximum seats.
A survey conducted by C-Voter in January predicted victory for the MVA in 34 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2024 elections.
Expand2. Drawbacks of Ajit Pawar Joining Hands With the BJP
Despite the C-Voter predictions for the Lok Sabha elections, political observers have touted the BJP to emerge as the largest party in the Assembly elections to be held in October 2024.
The BJP, specifically Fadnavis, has been eyeing the chief minister's post with Shinde's Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena (BSS) as the junior ally.
If Ajit Pawar decides to join hands with the BJP ahead of the polls, it would still mean having to accept a secondary role for himself. Moreover, this scenario is plausible only if the BJP is willing to sideline the BSS by next year.
The BJP, on the other hand, will get better inroads into Baramati along with all the other districts, bastions, an civic bodies that the NCP dominates if Ajit Pawar joins ranks.
However, sources and observers close to the NCP have said that many leaders are contemplating jumping ship solely due to the probes they are facing by the central agencies.
Expand3. What the Sena May Offer Ajit Pawar if MVA Stands
If party sources in both Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP are to be believed, Uddhav Thackeray is not keen on becoming the chief minister after the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections.
Many pointed to the health issues that Uddhav is facing but the former CM reportedly wants to stay focussed in keeping his flock together and expanding it following the dent left by the split engineered by Shinde last year.
Many within the two parties have also claimed that Thackeray has offered Ajit Pawar to be the chief minister in case the MVA gets the numbers next year.
Here's what Thackeray gains out of the arrangement:
It is clear that the NCP is currently stronger than the Shiv Sena (UBT) in the state and the Congress won't ally with the Shiv Sena without the NCP.
If the NCP indeed splits, the party will weaken, the MVA will crumble and Thackeray will have no mainstream parties left as allies.
Amid efforts to regain lost ground within the state, Thackeray has lost organisational structures at many places with most key leaders joining Shinde during and after the split. With several local body polls lined up this year, including the pending elections for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the Thackeray faction will need the NCP and Congress' organisational and structural support on the ground.
If such an arrangement does take place, it's a win-win for both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP, especially for Ajit Pawar.
Expand4. But Given the Current Scenario...
Sharad Pawar's sudden announcement of resignation on Tuesday sent shockwaves across party leaders and cadre whose subsequent protests 'forced' him to rethink his decision.
The aftermath of the announcement on Tuesday has put Ajit Pawar and any possible dissenters in a fix over any plans to switch sides.
The ripples indicated that that the loyal NCP voters won't change ranks even if any of the party leaders do and reaffirmed that fact that Sharad Pawar will continue to call the shots even if he doesn't remain the party chief.
However, the NCP is known to prioritise its interests according to changing political scenarios. At least five NCP leaders are currently facing a probe by the central, a factor that political observers say weighs most heavily on the NCP and eventually might become the sole deciding factor of the MVA's future.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)
Expand
The Growing Strength of the NCP & MVA in the State
The three 'Vajramuth' rallies by the MVA in Sambhaji Nagar, Nagpur, and Mumbai received massive response.
The MVA as a whole has outperformed the Shinde-BJP alliance in several key polls in the past nine months since the Uddhav government fell, with NCP being the major contributor to the victory in most of them.
After the BJP, the NCP is the second largest party currently in the state in terms of organisational strength, clout, cadre, and resources.
A quick look at the recent performance by the NCP and the MVA in several polls held in the past few months:
In the agricultural produce market committee (APMC) elections in April, the MVA won most committees, with the NCP alone bagging maximum of them for the alliance.
In March, the MVA toppled the BJP in Pune's Kasba Peth Assembly bypoll, a seat that the saffron party held for nearly three decades. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and party's state chief Chandrakant Patil had extensively campaigned in the constituency
In the elections for five MLC seats held in January this year, the MVA bagged three of the five teachers' seats including Nagpur, Devendra Fadnavis' home turf
In the gram panchayat polls held in December 2022, though the BJP won over 3,100 seats, the NCP was at the second spot with over 1,200 seats. While the Congress was at the third spot with 809 seats, the Shinde faction had won 842, and the Uddhav faction came last with 637 seats
In the gram panchayat polls held for 18 districts in October last year, the MVA's numbers trumped the Shinde-BJP alliance's tally, even though the BJP got the maximum seats.
A survey conducted by C-Voter in January predicted victory for the MVA in 34 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2024 elections.
Drawbacks of Ajit Pawar Joining Hands With the BJP
Despite the C-Voter predictions for the Lok Sabha elections, political observers have touted the BJP to emerge as the largest party in the Assembly elections to be held in October 2024.
The BJP, specifically Fadnavis, has been eyeing the chief minister's post with Shinde's Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena (BSS) as the junior ally.
If Ajit Pawar decides to join hands with the BJP ahead of the polls, it would still mean having to accept a secondary role for himself. Moreover, this scenario is plausible only if the BJP is willing to sideline the BSS by next year.
The BJP, on the other hand, will get better inroads into Baramati along with all the other districts, bastions, an civic bodies that the NCP dominates if Ajit Pawar joins ranks.
However, sources and observers close to the NCP have said that many leaders are contemplating jumping ship solely due to the probes they are facing by the central agencies.
What the Sena May Offer Ajit Pawar if MVA Stands
If party sources in both Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP are to be believed, Uddhav Thackeray is not keen on becoming the chief minister after the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections.
Many pointed to the health issues that Uddhav is facing but the former CM reportedly wants to stay focussed in keeping his flock together and expanding it following the dent left by the split engineered by Shinde last year.
Many within the two parties have also claimed that Thackeray has offered Ajit Pawar to be the chief minister in case the MVA gets the numbers next year.
Here's what Thackeray gains out of the arrangement:
It is clear that the NCP is currently stronger than the Shiv Sena (UBT) in the state and the Congress won't ally with the Shiv Sena without the NCP.
If the NCP indeed splits, the party will weaken, the MVA will crumble and Thackeray will have no mainstream parties left as allies.
Amid efforts to regain lost ground within the state, Thackeray has lost organisational structures at many places with most key leaders joining Shinde during and after the split. With several local body polls lined up this year, including the pending elections for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the Thackeray faction will need the NCP and Congress' organisational and structural support on the ground.
If such an arrangement does take place, it's a win-win for both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP, especially for Ajit Pawar.
But Given the Current Scenario...
Sharad Pawar's sudden announcement of resignation on Tuesday sent shockwaves across party leaders and cadre whose subsequent protests 'forced' him to rethink his decision.
The aftermath of the announcement on Tuesday has put Ajit Pawar and any possible dissenters in a fix over any plans to switch sides.
The ripples indicated that that the loyal NCP voters won't change ranks even if any of the party leaders do and reaffirmed that fact that Sharad Pawar will continue to call the shots even if he doesn't remain the party chief.
However, the NCP is known to prioritise its interests according to changing political scenarios. At least five NCP leaders are currently facing a probe by the central, a factor that political observers say weighs most heavily on the NCP and eventually might become the sole deciding factor of the MVA's future.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)