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The Aam Aadmi Party has faced a surprise defeat in the bypoll to the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat, the home ground of Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann. The election has also seen a comeback by Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) chief Simranjit Singh Mann, who defeated the AAP's Gurmail Singh by a margin of 5822 votes.
Mann will be returning to Parliament after a gap of 18 years. He was an MP from Sangrur between 1999 and 2004.
This article will look at three aspects:
Why AAP's defeat is a big deal
Who is Simranjit Singh Mann?
What explains the Sangrur result?
Why AAP's Defeat is a Big Deal
This is the home turf of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.
This is a seat that Mann didn't lose even when the AAP was at its weakest, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He won by a margin of over one lakh votes and led in seven out of nine Assembly segments.
The AAP won all nine Assembly segments in Sangrur in the Assembly polls.
Since 2009, close to 90 percent of the bypolls in Punjab have been won by the party that is ruling in the state.
Bhagwant Mann is barely three months into office and well within what would be considered his honeymoon period.
However, in the bypoll, the AAP trailed finance minister Harpal Cheema's seat, Dirba, as well as education minister Meet Hayer's seat, Barnala.
Mann's biggest leads were in Cheema's seat Dirba and Muslim dominated Malerkotla.
Who Is Simranjit Singh Mann?
Simranjit Singh Mann was born in Shimla in 1945. His father Lietenant Colonel (Retd) Joginder Singh Mann was a leader of the Akali Dal and speaker of the Punjab Assembly in 1967. Mann and former Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh are related.
Simranjit Mann joined the Indian Police Service in 1967 and served as SSP Ferozepur, SSP Faridkot, Group Commandant CISF (Bombay) among other positions. He resigned from the services in June 1984 in protest against Operation Blue Star.
He became a strong critic of the government's policies in Punjab, especially of the human rights abuses. He also said that he supports Khalistan but wants to achieve it through democratic, non-violent means. Mann was jailed for several years and he had to face torture in captivity.
While still in jail, he contested the 1989 Lok Sabha from Tarn Taran and won. His party SAD (Amritsar) did exceedingly well in that election, winning six out of 13 seats in Punjab.
The government disallowed the 1991 Lok Sabha election in Punjab and the polls eventually took place in 1992, under severe restrictions. That election was boycotted by almost all factions of the Akali Dal, including Mann. Mann lost in 1996 and 1998 but won again in 1999, this time from the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat.
As Lok Sabha MP, Mann insisted on carrying his Kirpan into the house but he was prevented from doing so. However, his electoral fortunes begun to wane in the 2000s as Parkash Singh Badal faction of the Akali Dal began consolidating power in Punjab and also in Sikh bodies, sidelining other Akali leaders.
Revival of Mann
The space for Mann's brand of politics actually began reviving around 2015, with the discrediting of the Badals after the sacrilege cases and the subsequent firing. This culminated in the Bargari Morcha and the 2015 Sarbat Khalsa.
Some came to see Mann as the "last man standing" on issues of Sikh identity and justice for the community.
The anger against farm laws further created the need for an unapologetic, Punjab-centric and Sikh-centric political voice.
Electorally, this didn't become clear until the 2022 Assembly elections, in which Simranjit Singh Mann polled nearly 30 percent votes from the Amargarh Assembly constituency, in the middle of an AAP wave across Malwa.
The turning point for him was the death of Deep Sidhu.
Sidhu actively campaigned for Mann who contested from Amargarh. He was returning from Delhi to resume campaigning, when he died in an accident on the highway. Sidhu's death created a great deal of sympathy and Mann gave the AAP a scare in Amargarh, polling 30 percent votes. His party candidate Gurjant Kattu got 21 percent votes in Mehal Kalan.
Given this slight revival in his fortunes and the weakening of the Badals, it was known from the beginning that Mann would contest from the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat that fell vacant afterthe AAP's Bhagwant Mann resigned from it on becoming the chief minister.
What Happened in Sangrur?
The shadow of Sidhu Moose Wala's tragic killing loomed large over the Sangrur by-election. Though Moose Wala's father Balkaur Singh Sidhu both refused to be a candidate of any part and also requested parties not to use the artist's name in the elections, there's no doubt that it played an important role in the election.
The AAP, which faced flak for downgrading Moose Wala's security, seems to have paid the price for the tragedy in the election.
CM Bhagwant Mann being seen as "weak" and under control of AAP's "Delhi leadership" didn't help matters. An image of Mann hanging from the side of a vehicle as AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal campaigned in Sangrur, went viral and sent a wrong signal.
The low voter turnout – less than 50 percent – was also a crucial factor. It appears that many voters who had supported the AAP in the Assembly elections simply didn't turn up.
On the other hand, Simranjit Mann's supporters knew that this is the one chance for his revival and turned out in large numbers as he fought the election on an emotional plank.
The BJP putting up a surprisingly decent performance also harmed the AAP. The BJP fielded Congress turncoat Kewal Dhillon, who secured 10 percent votes, mainly due to his own base in Barnala and that of the Dhindsas in Lehra, besides some urban Hindu votes. Dhillon's presence may have eaten into a chunk of AAP votes as well as those of his erstwhile party, the Congress.
Meanwhile SAD (Badal)'s move of fielding Kamaldeep Kaur Rajoana, sister of Beant Singh assassination convict Balwant Singh Rajoana backfired. The party stood fifth and secured only 6 percent votes. The Badals were accused of trying to divide Panthic votes by using the sister of someone who the Akal Takht has called a living Shaheed. Had the Badals not fielded Rajoana, Mann's margin may have been higher. Some say that this decision by Badals could also have created some sympathy for Mann.
Mann's win and the Badals' defeat may now trigger a churn within Panthic politics. It is possible that Badals' rivals will now challenge their dominance over the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee.
Meanwhile, Mann's win also comes at a time when there is increasing scrutiny of Sikh political voices. On Sunday 26 June, Sidhu Moose Wala's latest song SYL was removed from YouTube in India.
In the song, he raises the issue of Punjab's river waters, release of political prisoners and justice for 1984 victims. It had already got 2.7 crore views in less than three days and was top trending music video on YouTube world wide. Several Sikh handles on social media have also recently been banned in India.
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