Will They, Will They Not?: Why MVA Has Prakash Ambedkar in the Waiting Room

While Congress and NCP said they are 'positive' about indicting VBA in MVA, what are the reasons behind the delay?

"Earlier today, I received an invitation from Shri Rahul Gandhi to join him in his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. I have conditionally accepted the invitation and stressed on the fact that it would be difficult for me to join him in his Yatra as VBA has NOT yet been invited to INDIA alliance and MVA," said Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) chief Prakash Ambedkar on social media platform X, while sharing a detailed letter to the Congress party.

The response came as Prakash Ambedkar, grandson of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar and former MP, was invited in the Maharashtra leg of Gandhi's ongoing march from Manipur to Mumbai.

This isn't the first letter Ambedkar has shot to the Congress or the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). In a post pinned on his X profile, Ambedkar has a letter written to Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, saying that the VBA wishes to be a part of the INDIA bloc.

After almost a year of the party sealing an alliance with Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), the VBA is yet to be given a green signal by the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to be officially made a part of the MVA, and subsequently the INDIA bloc.

While both parties have said that they are 'positive' about talks with the VBA, what's taking so long?

'We Are Positive, There's Still Time': Congress' Stand

The Maharashtra Congress, so far, has maintained a 'positive' stand on an alliance with the VBA.

Speaking to The Quint, senior leader and All India Congress Committee (AICC) member Sachin Sawant said: "There is still time for elections. The dates have not been declared yet. Right decisions will be taken at the right time."

"The formula for the Congress is clear. The candidates will get tickets based on their winnability and calibre. Rather than parties demanding specific number of seats, we need to see who will ensure victory. This is a general consensus in the MVA parties. The parties are holding discussions based on this principle. The talks with the VBA will evolve in the future and right decisions will be taken at the right time," Sawant said.

Former Maharashtra chief minister and senior leader Ashok Chavan, too, spoke on the same lines.

"Prakash Ambedkar should become a part of the MVA is our clear stand. Sena leader Sanjay Raut also told the media in Delhi last week that all parties are positive about allying with the MVA. Making them a part of the INDIA bloc will not be difficult once they are inducted in the MVA," Chavan told the media on Thursday.

"We will positively talk to all INDIA parties about inducting them. I and several other senior party leaders will play an active role in inducting Prakash Ambedkar's party at the national platform," Chavan added.

'No Party Can Take on the BJP on its Own': What VBA Wants

The VBA, however, feels that there has been significant delay on the decision to induct them in the MVA.

"There have been no meetings or talks with the Congress so far. Neither has any Congress leader approached for the same," said Rekha Thakur, Maharashtra VBA chief told The Quint.

"We have allied with the Shiv Sena (UBT) but we are not inducted into the MVA, it remains to be seen how things will go forward. We will have to see how the seat sharing will happen. Nevertheless, we will need all parties on board because the Sena is a part of the MVA. So, if they are allying with us, there have to be lots of mutual understandings. But no decision is being taken by them," Thakur added.

She further said that at a time when democratic institutions and political parties are allegedly being weakened, no single party can take on the BJP on its own.

"There is a big challenge before us in 2024 because the government which is in power is harming the nation socially and financially. Their religious outlook towards the nation is damaging it. The constitutional institutions are being destroyed. All parties need to combine forces to stop them. It is very clear that no single party can do it anymore. In the past two years, we have seen vertical splits in parties here," Thakur said.

Decades of Troubled Relations With Congress & NCP

The bargain for Thackeray is clear. With a weakened party after the split and the clear consolidation of Hindu and upper caste votes behind the BJP, Thackeray is looking to tap into sections of Hindu Dalit and Buddhist voters that support the VBA.

Prakash Ambedkar, however, has had a troubled history with the Congress and the NCP.

When Pawar was at the helm of NCP after splitting from the Congress in the 1990s, he allied with Republican Party of India (RPI) and its leader Ramdas Athawale, which many saw as an attempt to counter Prakash Ambedkar's popularity at the time who had carved a political niche for himself in the state.

He had already represented the state in the Rajya Sabha from 1990-1996 and then twice as a Lok Sabha MP from Akola (1998-2004). That was his last stint holding a public office.

Prakash Ambedkar's equation with the NCP and the Congress in the two decades since has remained unpleasant.

In the last one year particularly, Prakash Ambedkar's statements on the two parties and their senior leaders, including Sharad Pawar, have not gone down well within the MVA.

Earlier last year, he called Pawar a 'BJP' man. Later in October, the meeting between the two leaders was seen a sign of truce. They met again in Pune on 30 December.

Political experts, meanwhile, feel that with Congress' OBC and backward classes pitch, Prakash Ambedkar's entry into MVA and INDIA could bolster the perception game with 'Babasaheb's grandson' on their side.

Many within the MVA, however, see the Congress' invitation to Prakash Ambedkar to BJNY as more of a perception gimmick than an olive branch, leading to Ambedkar's sharp response to the invitation.

That begs the question - how strong is the VBA electorally?

Lessons from the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections

Prakash Ambedkar was blamed by the Congress for splitting the Opposition votes in several seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

While Ashok Chavan is now seen openly welcoming talks with VBA, he publicly blamed the party for his defeat from Nanded in 2019. Chavan lost the election by over 42,000 votes to BJP's Pratap Patil Chikhalikar. VBA candidate Yashpal Bhinge had polled close to 1.62 lakh votes in Nanded.

"In an election that was critical for democracy and the Constitution, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi has damaged secular forces and supported casteist parties. That is a cause for the defeat of Congress-NCP candidates in several seats," Chavan had said in a statement at the time.

If one analyses the 2019 results closely, there are a number of seats where the VBA polled more votes than the NDA's margin of victory over the Congress-NCP alliance: Buldhana, Akola, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Nanded, and Parbhani.

Some say Congress-NCP could have given a tougher fight or lost with a smaller margin in seats like Nandurbar, Ramtek, Yavatmal-Washim, Shirdi, Osmanabad, and Madha, had it not been for the VBA. Then the VBA's transfer of votes to its pre-poll ally AIMIM, may have contributed to the victory of Syed Imtiyaz Jaleel from Aurangabad.

Though the VBA did not win any seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or the Assembly elections, the party got 6.92% votes in the Lok Sabha and 4.58% votes in the Assembly elections.

The figures are indicative of the fact that Prakash Ambedkar and his party are indeed a force to reckon with.

Tougher Seat Sharing Formula With VBA on Board

2019 marked the worst performance of the Congress in the state in Maharashtra's history.

If the VBA is to be inducted into the MVA, the Congress and the NCP would have to face a tougher seat-sharing formula given that they won one and four of the 48 seats in the state respectively.

"Of course we will have certain expectations regarding seats if we become a part of the MVA. We are a party, we have a certain agenda too. The most important agenda  is that on one side, there is safeguarding secularism and the Constitution. On the other hand, our party is here to spread the message that the backward classes have still not got their due place, especially in the decision-making bodies of the country. So, that is what our politics is based on. We cannot compromise with that," Thakur said.

"If you consider four parties, each one can get 12 seats. But this figure is up for debate. First, let the talks begin at least" Thakur said. 

The Congress, however, deems the VBA's demand hasty.

On the demand of 12 seats by the VBA, Sawant said: "It is premature to talk about the number of seats at this stage. The talks will start streamlining soon. The goal is to defeat the BJP, that is why we all have come together. Every party needs to see which is the most suitable candidate in every seat to ensure the BJP's defeat. This is the MVA's stand so far."

If one is to go by the MVA's agenda of winnability while deciding on the seat-sharing formula, the VBA has very less to show. But if the party is not inducted into the alliance, it might be just the Sena (UBT) that would have to part with its share of seats eventually with the VBA.

In any case, though VBA is unlikely to get a huge number of seats. But for now, Prakash Ambedkar's wait continues.