Omar Abdullah: Will He Be A Comeback King or a Toothless CM in a Divided J&K?

With a weakend Congress, a stronger BJP and a 'divided' J&K, Omar Abdullah's moves are bound to be closely watched.

"If you pay for exits polls or waste time discussing them you deserve all the jokes/memes/ridicule. There was a reason I called them a waste of time a few days ago," tweeted Omar Abdullah, leader of J&K National Conference (JKNC), who may be set to be the next chief minister of the Jammu and Kashmir, now a Union Territory that went to polls after a decade.

In a resounding resurgence, his party, once at the helm of the erstwhile state's politics, not only lost the 2014 election, but also saw a massive drop in its vote share and seat tally.

A decade later, Omar's defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Baramulla against Engineer Rashid continued to paint a grim picture of the party's fate in J&K. But Tuesday's results that saw JKNC's sweep in the Kashmir region, is a 'vindication of what the JKNC has been through in the past five years', as Omar is claiming.

"People have given their mandate. They have proven that they don't accept the decision that was taken in August (abrogation of Article 370 and withdrawal of statehood). Omar Abdullah will be the chief minister," said his father and former CM Farooq Abdullah while speaking to the media. But Omar himself has said that the CM candidate will be decided after a meeting of the party executive and thanked his father for being 'kind'.

But with his return to the helm quite likely, what did it take to reach back there? Will it be a 'vindication' as he claims or will his past baggage, with newer challenges that await, will be too heavy a burden to bear?

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The 'Didn't Bow' Image That Worked

If one speaks to any ordinary Kashmiri, the general outlook of regional parties like JKNC and Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP) would be "all are alike."

The angst mostly stems from the fact that JKNC was mostly perceived as a party that has 'bowed before Delhi for years in order to stay in power.'

From 2008-2014, Omar was the last chief minister of the state to have completed a full term, following into his father's footsteps who has been the longest serving CM of the state since India's Independence across three different terms.

But the past decade has been different, especially from the perspective of those from the Valley.

The 2014 Assembly election saw an unexpected surge of the BJP in the elections when it bagged 25 seats in Jammu, second only to the PDP which won 28 seats.

Then came the unexpected PDP-BJP alliance with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and then Mehbooba Mufti at the helm, which fell apart in a little over two years. The alliance, many believe, cost the PDP its political deposits in the Valley.

Over a year after Mufti's government fell, the Abrogation of Article 370 changed the discourse of J&K politics for good.

Like the Abdullahs, Mufti too became the strongest critic of the BJP, but for many, it was too little too late.

The abrogation saw most leaders from the state being put under house arrest, including both Omar and Mufti, but the ire against the PDP for 'enabling BJP's entry' into the state's governance continued to play more strongly on the minds of the valley's voters.

JKNC, in comparison to most regional players, was able to reconstruct its image as the most staunch opponent of government's move. Omar was one of the leaders who was under house arrest the longest. The fact that the party retained much of its cadre strength is also a major reason behind its victory.

Many believe that it was only after the abrogation that the political fortunes of JKNC began to revive.

Omar, too, rebuilt his image as a leader.

From relentless attacks on the BJP and PM Narendra Modi, to even saying that he will not contest any election till statehood of J&K is restored, he was seen as someone who's 'not giving in', especially by those in the valley.

Earlier in September, as he pitched to contest from Ganderbal, a seat held by both him and his father before, he removed his cap before the media to say that "his fate is in people's hands."

Illusion of Power in a Divided 'State'?

One of the toughest challenges for Omar, however, will be overcoming the baggage of his previous tenure. Though many in the valley have softened their stand on him following developments of the past decade, his previous tenure was marred with allegations of fake encounters and unreasonable crackdown on protesters under the Public Safety Act (PSA).

Imposing a three-month-long curfew following firing by forces on protesters demonstrating against twin rape and murder in Shopian in 2009 and the Machil encounter of 2010 are seen as some of his tenure's darkest chapters by those in the Valley.

Many believe that the 'tolerance' for any perceived anti-people move has reduced further in the Kashmir region, especially in the past five years, which explains the PDP's debacle in the elections.

What will be most challenging for Omar is to stand true to the promise and demand of restoring statehood of J&K, a key poll plank of his party which he repeated immediately after the party's victory on Tuesday.

Many, though, flagged his previous statements of not contesting elections till statehood was restored.

The biggest challenge will be navigating the Centre's control on the Union Territory that the Modi government claims has bettered under its rule.

Some political observers believe that the BJP's control on J&K may actually also favour Omar's politics, as not just security but even most policy decisions will require the Lieutenant Governor's stamp of approval.

The BJP, meanwhile, is stronger politically with 29 seats in Jammu, a tally which also shows the electoral and political divide that now runs deeper between the Jammu and Kashmir regions.

"The prime minister never said that statehood will be restored only if the BJP comes to power," Omar has been told several media houses through Tuesday. But with a weakened Congress as an ally, a stronger BJP as the Opposition, and a 'divided' Union Territory, Omar's moves in the coming days are bound to be closely watched.

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