Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (United) chief's decision to leave the INDIA bloc and join the BJP-led NDA is a major blow to the Opposition alliance.
INDIA bloc chairman and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said that they "expected that Nitish would switch" and that his decision hasn't surprised them.
However, the impact of this change on the INDIA bloc's prospects cannot be ignored.
There are four fundamental reasons why Nitish Kumar's exit is a major blow for the INDIA bloc in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
1. Bihar Was Central to INDIA's Arithmetic
The arithmetic nature of the INDIA bloc in Bihar – JD-U, RJD, Congress, CPI-ML, CPI and CPI-M – made it a formidable force. It's not just because of the number of parties but the arithmetic of the RJD's Muslim and Yadav base and Nitish Kumar's Kurmi, EBC, MBC, and Mahadalit support, that was working in favour of the alliance. Now with Nitish gone, the Mahagathbandhan is once again back to relying on the RJD's 'MY' combination with pockets of support for the Congress and Left parties.
Surveys had been predicting major gains for the INDIA bloc in Bihar. For instance, the ABP-CVoter survey from a month ago predicted 21-23 seats for the INDIA bloc and 16-18 for the NDA.
This would have been a loss of over 20 seats for the NDA which had 39 seats in 2019 (including the JD-U). On the other hand, it was an equal gain for the Opposition, which only had 1 seat in 2019.
This kind of 20-seat gain is now out of the question. The problem for the INDIA bloc is that they are unlikely to make such gains in any other state as well.
2. Nitish Was the Face of INDIA Bloc's Caste Census Plank
The socio-economic caste census and the slogan 'Jitni abadi utna haq' is one of the major planks of the INDIA bloc. And Nitish Kumar was, in some ways, the face of this plank, having carried out the caste census in Bihar and released the data.
Kumar was the face in another way, being a CM who has implemented reservation along with detailed sub-categorisation, to ensure adequate representation of more backward sections even within SCs and OBCs.
With Kumar gone to the NDA and the Bihar government also now not with the INDIA bloc, they will find it difficult to take credit for the caste census.
3. Nitish Initiated the INDIA Bloc
It must be remembered that the very first meeting of Opposition parties which eventually led to the formation of the INDIA bloc, took place in Patna. It happened at Nitish Kumar's initiative.
Now with Kumar gone, questions will be raised over the viability and even premise of the INDIA bloc.
His exit also comes at a time when the Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party have announced that they would be going solo in West Bengal and Punjab respectively.
Now the scope for pre-poll alliances is in:
Maharashtra: Between Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar), Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi
Uttar Pradesh: Samajwadi Party, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal
Delhi: Aam Aadmi Party and Congress
Existing alliances in Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Bihar.
Jammu and Kashmir: Congress, National Conference and JKPDP
4. It Will Add to the Perception of PM Modi's Invincibility
Nitish Kumar's exit from the INDIA bloc is the third in a series of events that is adding to the narrative of 'Aayega to Modi hi'.
First were the BJP's wins in the Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh last month. All these states were a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress and the BJP's win is being seen as a sign that it could once again sweep these states in the Lok Sabha elections the way it did in 2019. In 2018, it had actually lost all these 3 states and yet managed to sweep them in the Lok Sabha elections a few months later.
Second was the consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. It was received with a great deal of enthusiasm by many Hindus across the country and it is being speculated that this could bring gains to the BJP.
Kumar's shift will now add to the NDA's momentum and the INDIA bloc will have to come up with some major gamechanger to take on the NDA.
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