The West Bengal elections are done and dusted, but the battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is far from over. In fact, the tussle seems to have entered a new phase. Barely a few days after Mamata Banerjee began her third term as the Chief Minister of West Bengal, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrested senior TMC leaders Firhad Hakim, Sovan Chatterjee, Subrata Mukherjee and Madan Mitra on Monday, 17 May. Among them, Hakim and Mukherjee are senior ministers in Mamata Banerjee's Cabinet.
The arrests were made in connection with the Narada sting case. Soon after the arrests, CM Banerjee reached the CBI office at Kolkata's Nizam Palace and challenge the agency to arrest her as well. She protested outside the building for a few hours.
The leaders were given bail by a special CBI court but in a surprising late-night hearing, the Calcutta High Court stayed the order giving them bail. On Tuesday morning, three of the four leaders – Chatterjee, Mukherjee, and Mitra – were rushed to hospitals.
The TMC has blamed the Narendra Modi government at the Centre and accused it of misusing the CBI to harass political opponents. It has also criticised West Bengal governor Jagdeep Dhankhar for granting sanction for the arrests.
This article will try and look at the politics behind the results.
Why Are the Arrests Being Called Politically Motivated?
One reason is the timing. Many are asking what was the urgency to carry out these arrests, especially in the middle of a pandemic. Hakim and Mukherjee are responsible for urban and rural civic affairs, respectively, which are crucial ministries in terms of taking measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
There is a sentiment among TMC supporters that this is being done at the behest of the Centre purely out of cussedness following Mamata Banerjee's spectacular victory in the recently concluded Assembly elections.
But there is one another issue that is driving these allegations.
Why Has Suvendu Adhikari Not Been Arrested?
In the Narada Sting Operation carried out in 2014 and published in 2016, a number of TMC leaders were accused of taking bribes. This includes the above-mentioned four leaders but also Suvendu Adhikari, who is now in the BJP and presently the Leader of the Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly.
Senior investigative journalist Matthew Samuel, who carried out the sting, has himself questioned why Adhikari was left out.
"I had paid the money to Suvendu Adhikari. He was in his office. His name is not in the list. I had gone through forensic tests and given statements regarding that. He (Adhikari) received the money from me. Why is he being kept out of the loop? The investigation should be fair," Samuel said.
Naturally, the question being raised is – Has Suvendu Adhikari not been arrested just because he joined the BJP?
A similar case is that of Mukul Roy, another TMC leader to have joined the BJP.
Roy's name also featured in the sting, but there is a difference. Samuel alleges that Roy did not take the money, instead told him to give it to (now suspended IPS officer) named Mirza.
The amount was Rs 15 lakh, says Samuel.
Is It BJP's Warning to TMC Defectors?
Another theory doing the rounds in West Bengal's political circles is that the CBI raids could be the BJP top brass' way of sending a warning to TMC defectors in its ranks, especially Adhikari and Roy.
The BJP went into the West Bengal elections with a large number of former TMC leaders in its ranks. This worked fine until before the results as the party hoped it would be able to accommodate all the sections if it comes to power.
However, after the BJP's defeat, contradictions began emerging in the party's Bengal unit. Old guard leaders like Dilip Ghosh and Tathagatha Roy blamed inclusion of "people without ideology" for the party's woes. Roy went to the extent of calling a section of leaders as "garbage" and said that without ideology, the party would be nothing more than a group of dacoits.
Matters became worse after Adhikari, who hasn't even been in the party for one year, was made Leader of the Opposition in the Bengal Assembly. After defeating Banerjee in his bastion of Nandigram, Adhikari is emerging as a strong power centre in the Bengal’s BJP unit, much to the resentment of of the old guard.
Mukul Roy is said to have been dissatisfied even before elections and the rumours of his quitting the BJP returned after the Assembly poll defeat.
With the CBI now arresting four of the accused in the Narada sting, there is a sword hanging on Adhikari at least, should the probe agency decide to go after him.
What Else Does the BJP Hope to Gain?
Besides the possible warning to the defectors, the news of the CBI's arrests overshadowed the media coverage of the pandemic for a short while, giving the Modi government a breather against the widespread criticism of its COVID management.
There's also an added factor. After stopping the BJP in its tracks in Bengal and winning a third term as CM, Banerjee began being talked about as a national alternative. During the Bengal elections, she appealed to various Opposition parties to come together to "save democracy", hinted that she did see a larger national role for herself.
Going by their track record, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are quick to identify possible threats and deal with them. Therefore, the fresh offensive against the TMC could well be aimed at nipping Banerjee as a national threat in the bud.
While the CBI was carrying out the arrests, a few BJP supporters on Twitter were trending "#PresidentsRuleinBengal", egging on the Centre and the CBI.
An Opportunity As Well As Challenge for Mamata
For Mamata Banerjee, this crisis is an opportunity as well as a challenge. The coronavirus cases in West Bengal are on the increase. There were over 19,000 new cases in Bengal on Monday, 17 May, much higher than the daily average for much of the COVID wave last year.
Facing criticism, the CBI arrests give her both a diversion as well as an opportunity to accuse the BJP of preventing her government from tackling pandemic.
Not surprisingly, Banerjee did a dharna outside the CBI office for a few hours after the arrests. This sent two clear messages – that Didi won't give up without a fight and that she will stand by all those who have been loyal to her.
It may just be a matter of time before the leaders get bail. But it is clear that the tussle between the Modi government and the Mamata Banerjee government is only likely to intensify.
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