Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting Rajkot for the launch of Narmada Avtaran Irrigation Yojna.
But one expects that there’s more to the visit.
For the first time since 1996, BJP is threatened by a possible defeat in the upcoming State Assembly Elections in 2017 thanks to their withering support base.
Rajkot is Patel heartland and Modi’s visit hints at a subtle way of intervening in the matter of the Patel’s quota agitation.
Anandiben was swiftly removed as the Chief Minister as it is widely believed that she let the Patel and Dalit agitations go out of hand.
Anandiben’s trouble began early, with the Patidars demanding reservation in government jobs. Her inability to handle the agitation lead to the BJP’s loss in the panchayat and municipal polls in rural Gujarat.
Patel quota agitation’s young leader, Hardik’s arrest turned him into an overnight hero but put BJP’s vote bank at peril.
Hardik Patel, the young leader of the agitation is far from being pacified even with him being out of jail.
Since Modi’s exit from state politics, BJP has suffered a blow when it comes to their command over the state. On top of that, the Patels constitute 18 percent of the state’s population, making their support quite mandatory.
Things went for a toss with the massive outbreak of Dalit protests against upper caste violence, with even the small population of Muslims extending their support to the Dalit community in Gujarat.
When Modi was the Chief Minister, he never let the number of seats drop below 117 in the 182-strong State Assembly.
If the Patidars are not appeased soon enough, BJP could stand to lose rural seats moving to the grand old party.
As per a earlier analysis on the BJP vote bank on The Quint stated, if the BJP were to lose all the 10 SC (reserved) seats it won in 2012, the gap between the two parties, which was 55 in 2012, could reduce to 34 seats. Given the fact that Muslims have also joined the Dalit agitation and the BJP won 12 out of the 19 seats where Muslims are significant in numbers, a loss of 5-10 seats here could reduce the gap between the BJP and Congress from 55 to 20-25 with losses just in these two voting groups. The BJP has received one of every five Muslim votes in the state in the past few elections, its best on a pan-India level.
Hence, if the Patidars are not appeased soon enough, BJP’s weakened grasp over the state would lead to questioning Gujarat, which the party flaunted as the ideal model in the 2014 General Election.
(Source: Firstpost)
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