On the eve of the Lok Sabha elections and just over six months before the Haryana Assembly elections, a massive political upheaval has taken place in the state.
On 12 March, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) replaced Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, who was till now the MP from Kurukshetra besides being the BJP state unit chief.
Meanwhile, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), BJP's coalition partner, has withdrawn its support to the BJP-led government in the state.
The JJP had been a partner in Khattar's government, with its leader Dushyant Chautala serving as the deputy CM since 2019.
Haryana: Why Did BJP Replace ML Khattar With Nayab Saini & End Tie-Up With JJP?
1. What Triggered the Change?
The BJP and JJP had a falling out over seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP had won all 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The JJP had split from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) only a few months before the elections due to a dispute within the Chautala family, and drew a blank.
During the seat-sharing discussions for the 2024 elections, it became quite clear that the BJP was in no mood to concede much to the JJP.
The JJP, on its part, felt that it had a claim over seats in its core areas like Hisar and Sirsa as well as other Jat-dominated seats like Sonepat.
Sources in the BJP said that the party got feedback of some anti-incumbency against CM Khattar and the leadership decided that a change of guard needed to be done well before the state elections. The party high command was clear that Khattar couldn't be its candidate in the Assembly elections later this year.
Khattar is now tipped to be the BJP's candidate from Karnal in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Expand2. Why BJP Felt It Could Do Away With JJP
The BJP is assured of its numbers in the Haryana Assembly. The party has 40 MLAs of its own and it has the support of six independent MLAs and one MLA of Gopal Kanda's Haryana Lokhit Party, giving it a narrow majority in the 90-member Haryana Assembly.
Moreover, with state elections due in a few months, there isn't much risk for the party anyway.
The BJP's main game plan, in cutting loose the JJP, is to try for a split in Jat votes.
In Haryana, Jats account for 27 percent of the population and are the most numerous voting bloc. They have also traditionally wielded the maximum political influence in the state. A majority of Haryana's chief ministers have been Jats.
While the BJP did get a sizeable chunk of Jat votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, probably due to PM Narendra Modi's popularity and the post-Pulwama attack sentiment, at the state-level, the party has tended to play "non-Jat politics".
Basically, this means that the party has tried to consolidate non-Jat communities – especially upper castes and OBCs – against Jat domination. The violence during the 2016 Jat reservation agitation further helped the BJP consolidate this vote.
On the other hand, Jats have tended to vote for the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal at the state level. The JJP emerged as another claimant after its formation.
The BJP may have calculated that the JJP contesting separately could lead to a three-way split in Jat votes, while it consolidates non-Jat votes.
The choice of the new CM is important in this respect.
Expand3. Why Did BJP Choose Nayab Singh Saini?
The choice of Nayab Singh Saini as CM stems from the same caste-based calculation of the BJP.
The new CM is from the OBC Saini or Mali caste. Though at 8 percent, Sainis are much less numerous than Jats, they are still one of the larger blocks within OBCs in Haryana and are influential in Kurukshetra, Yamunanagar, Ambala, Hisar and Rewari districts. They are also an important voting block in some districts in Uttar Pradesh that are adjacent to Haryana, such as Saharanpur.
Nayab Saini is considered close to outgoing CM Manohar Lal Khattar. Both of them come from a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) background and both have their political bases in the Grand Trunk Road belt, where the BJP is the strongest.
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Expand
What Triggered the Change?
The BJP and JJP had a falling out over seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP had won all 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The JJP had split from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) only a few months before the elections due to a dispute within the Chautala family, and drew a blank.
During the seat-sharing discussions for the 2024 elections, it became quite clear that the BJP was in no mood to concede much to the JJP.
The JJP, on its part, felt that it had a claim over seats in its core areas like Hisar and Sirsa as well as other Jat-dominated seats like Sonepat.
Sources in the BJP said that the party got feedback of some anti-incumbency against CM Khattar and the leadership decided that a change of guard needed to be done well before the state elections. The party high command was clear that Khattar couldn't be its candidate in the Assembly elections later this year.
Khattar is now tipped to be the BJP's candidate from Karnal in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Why BJP Felt It Could Do Away With JJP
The BJP is assured of its numbers in the Haryana Assembly. The party has 40 MLAs of its own and it has the support of six independent MLAs and one MLA of Gopal Kanda's Haryana Lokhit Party, giving it a narrow majority in the 90-member Haryana Assembly.
Moreover, with state elections due in a few months, there isn't much risk for the party anyway.
The BJP's main game plan, in cutting loose the JJP, is to try for a split in Jat votes.
In Haryana, Jats account for 27 percent of the population and are the most numerous voting bloc. They have also traditionally wielded the maximum political influence in the state. A majority of Haryana's chief ministers have been Jats.
While the BJP did get a sizeable chunk of Jat votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, probably due to PM Narendra Modi's popularity and the post-Pulwama attack sentiment, at the state-level, the party has tended to play "non-Jat politics".
Basically, this means that the party has tried to consolidate non-Jat communities – especially upper castes and OBCs – against Jat domination. The violence during the 2016 Jat reservation agitation further helped the BJP consolidate this vote.
On the other hand, Jats have tended to vote for the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal at the state level. The JJP emerged as another claimant after its formation.
The BJP may have calculated that the JJP contesting separately could lead to a three-way split in Jat votes, while it consolidates non-Jat votes.
The choice of the new CM is important in this respect.
Why Did BJP Choose Nayab Singh Saini?
The choice of Nayab Singh Saini as CM stems from the same caste-based calculation of the BJP.
The new CM is from the OBC Saini or Mali caste. Though at 8 percent, Sainis are much less numerous than Jats, they are still one of the larger blocks within OBCs in Haryana and are influential in Kurukshetra, Yamunanagar, Ambala, Hisar and Rewari districts. They are also an important voting block in some districts in Uttar Pradesh that are adjacent to Haryana, such as Saharanpur.
Nayab Saini is considered close to outgoing CM Manohar Lal Khattar. Both of them come from a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) background and both have their political bases in the Grand Trunk Road belt, where the BJP is the strongest.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)