Maharashtra Exit Polls: Who is Winning - Mahayuti or MVA? 3 Main Takeaways

Having made mistakes in the Lok Sabha and Haryana polls, Exit Polls are being much more cautious this time.

"The real election will begin after 23 November".

Off record, this is what the leaders of both the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi have been saying. And the exit poll predictions may have further added to this narrative. Most of the surveys have predicted a close contest between the two alliances, with the BJP-led Mahayuti having a slight edge.

According to the Matrize Exit Poll, the Mahayuti could win 150-170 seats, ahead of the MVA at 110-130 seats.

The Lokshahi Marathi poll predicts an even closer contest, with the Mahayuti at 128-142 and the MVA at 125-140 and others at 18-23 seats

Polls Being Cautious

With the 2024 Lok Sabha election results and, more recently, the Haryana Assembly election results not going in line with many of the Exit Poll predictions, it appears that this time many poll agencies are being extremely cautious.

For instance, CVoter, which is conducting the poll for India Today, hasn't released their prediction for Maharashtra on 20 November and they are expected to release them a day later.

In Jharkhand, CVoter for the first time has given a separate column specifying the number of seats that are "too close to call".

Axis-MyIndia has also not released its predictions for Maharashtra.

A Localised Election

The close predictions also reveal that this has been a highly localised election in the 288 seats in Maharashtra, with the dynamics in each seat becoming the main factor rather than a state-wide narrative.

In some ways, this is a good sign for the Mahayuti. Having been in power for seven and a half out of the last 10 years, there should have been a clear anti-incumbency sentiment against the Mahayuti. If the election has become localised, then it would mean they have managed to counter any statewide negative sentiment.

Also, in a localised election, the alliance with greater resources and cadre strength may have the advantage, which is the Mahayuti.

However, a seat-by-seat election would also mean that a greater role will be played by rebels and vote transfer between alliances. While both alliances were equally afflicted by the presence of rebels, the MVA did appear a much more united alliance than the Mahayuti and may be more effective in transferring votes.

Possible Scenarios

Among the agencies that released its predictions, there seems to be a pattern. They are predicting one of four scenarios

• A clear Mahayuti victory

• A narrow Mahayuti victory

• Hung Assembly

• Narrow MVA victory

None of the surveys so far have predicted a clear win for the MVA. Though we should wait for the CVoter and Axis-MyIndia predictions, the polls do indicate a slight edge for the Mahayuti.